A Statistical Look At The Sophomores

[Goose]

In the past, I've used some KenPom comparables to "forecast" what Spencer and Ski were going to do in their upcoming seasons. Both sets of analysis had their hits and misses, and this analysis has its faults, but it's summer and I've been seeing a lot of discussion about JHop, Fletch and DT on twitter and what we can expect from them this year so I decided to run the numbers. I took each players list of KenPom comparables and ran the numbers to see how they improved their next season. I then applied those averages to each of these guys' stats from their freshman year. If each of these guys progress like their comparables, here is what we could expect:

Tre'Shaun Fletcher

|%Min|ORtg|%Poss|%Shots|eFG%|TS%|OR%|DR%|ARate|TORate|Blk|Stl|FC/40|FD/40|FTRate
Fletch 2013-14|13.6|100.2|17.5|19.6|45.0|49.1|7.5|11.4|5.5|15.9|2.3|1.2|5.8|3.3|38.0
Fletch Proj 14-15|22.3|101.5|17.8|20.7|48.5|50.6|8.4|11.1|8.1|16.9|2.8|1.2|6.7|2.7|24.2

With Fletch, the first thing that jumps out to me is the ORtg. He was the only one of the frosh to post an ORtg of 100 or greater last year, and one of four players on the team to do that (along with Spencer, Josh and XJ). Fletch's numbers were slightly limited last year due to the injury. You can argue that he didn't play enough to hit the "freshman wall", but he also didn't get enough PT to really find his groove early on either. Honestly, of all the projections listed here, this one seems the most likely. It's solid overall. He's going to put up good solid numbers, and I see him being a bit of a point forward for the team as well. He's going to be a good guy to have on the court when Dom is out there to give him a safety net for ball handling. His TORate was by far the lowest of all of the freshmen last year (and third lowest on the team). I'm also curious to watch his offensive rebounding rate as he was tied with DT for third on the team.

Note - his sample size is slightly limited. One of his comparables was Justin Coleman of Marshall, who was dismissed from the team after his freshman season and another was Hauns Brereton from Northern Colorado who then had to sit one year out as he transferred to Hawaii after that season.

Jaron Hopkins

|%Min|ORtg|%Poss|%Shots|eFG%|TS%|OR%|DR%|ARate|TORate|Blk|Stl|FC/40|FD/40|FTRate
JHop 2013-14|45.1|91.1|17.4|18.6|45.2|46.2|4.3|11.6|11.7|20.5|0.5|2.5|4.8|2.9|33.1
JHop Proj 14-15|66.4|100.2|18.3|20.9|47.3|48.1|3.2|12.4|15.5|16.8|0.5|2.9|4.0|3.0|30.5

With JHop, the biggest thing is going to be consistency. He put up ORtg's of 150+ last year (Oregon & Air Force), but then put up a 0 (Elon) as well. If he can get the consistency up, his overall efficiency will rise as well. The thing that jumps out to me the most is the Usage rating - even though he was technically a PG last year, JHop had the lowest usage rating of all of the freshmen. I expect that to rise this year. He also had the highest steal percentage of any of the freshman (and was behind only Spencer in that ranking). I do like the way his ARate & TORate numbers are projected to go as well. I think the game slowed down for him a bit as the year went on and he started to feel more comfortable. That will allow him to minimize his turnovers.

One note on JHop's comparables - one of them is Malcolm Brogdon from Virginia. Brogdon played his freshman year and then redshirted his sophomore year due to a knee injury. So his numbers are slightly higher than the rest. But even without him in this group, JHop's numbers improve overall.

Dustin Thomas

|%Min|ORtg|%Poss|%Shots|eFG%|TS%|OR%|DR%|ARate|TORate|Blk|Stl|FC/40|FD/40|FTRate
DT 2013-14|37.2|81.0|18.6|15.9|44.1|46.6|7.5|11.6|7.4|29.9|0.6|0.8|6.3|3.4|47.7
DT Proj 14-15|61.3|92.8|16.7|13.3|48.8|51.1|6.7|15.6|20.5|29.7|1.0|0.7|7.2|3.3|56.9

This is by far the most bi-polar comparison group. Part of the reason is that there are only four comparables to use instead of five (one of his comparables is fellow freshman Kuran Iverson from Memphis). Another part though is because DT is a unique player statistically. Not one of his comps had a comparable score of 900+. Ultimately though, the numbers are most skewed because of the four comps, two are forwards and two are guards. Ultimately though, I do think that the ORtg will come up quite a bit as well as his shooting percentage. His ARate & TORate won't be as high as his numbers indicate either. The two things to watch the most with DT are his Offensive Rebounding percentage (he was tied for third last year on the team) and his fouls called for rate (where he was EASILY the team leader).

Final note - there is no King comparison. Due to his limited minutes, none of the comparables really worked that well. The two "best" had only played one year and there weren't numbers to use for the next season.

 

[Darth Snow]

Expected solid to big jumps from Fletch and JHoop... but DT spending the summer in Texas along with under performing most of last year compared to his apparent ability (i.e. shooting) makes him the wild card. I really have no idea what he is going to do this year. Great stuff Goose. I know you are drooling over the #gameshooter.

Also, do Gordon dammit! I know somewhere nik is pissed you didn't profile the beast.

 

[sackman]

I don't really know what any of those numbers mean. I do know that we need to have all three step up this year if we're going to have the kind of year we all hope to have. If those three guys don't make significant contributions, we're looking at an 18-win season.

 

[Goose]

Expected solid to big jumps from Fletch and JHoop... but DT spending the summer in Texas along with under performing most of last year compared to his apparent ability (i.e. shooting) makes him the wild card. I really have no idea what he is going to do this year. Great stuff Goose. I know you are drooling over the #gameshooter.

Honestly, I was surprised to see the numbers for JHop. If dude can just limit his valleys a little bit, he'll be a beast for us. His game by game numbers from last year are bi-polar.

 

[Goose]

Snow just made a damn good point to me - where's Wes Gordon? Just spaced him.

	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk	Stl	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate
Wes 2013-14	55.1	98.7	16..0	13.7	48.9	51.8	11.7	16.3	7.6	23.5	5.8	1.0	2.8	3.2	51.8
Wes Proj 14-15	50.4	99.8	19.3	17.3	47.7	50.7	12.9	16.0	9.2	21.3	4.2	1.2	2.5	3.2	39.4

Lots of disclaimers on this one. First off, two of his five comps are fellow frosh - so I have no numbers there. A third comp of his was Daniel Turner of Wisconsin-Green Bay, who tore his ACL in both his sophomore and junior years. I kept his numbers in there. If however I removed them, this would be his comp:

	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk	Stl	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate
Wes 2013-14	55.1	98.7	16..0	13.7	48.9	51.8	11.7	16.3	7.6	23.5	5.8	1.0	2.8	3.2	51.8
Wes Proj 14-15	64.2	108.1	20.3	18.6	51.9	54.4	13.2	17.3	7.6	17.0	4.8	1.1	2.4	3.6	40.7

Those seem REALLY optimistic to me (it doesn't hurt that one of his comps is Alex Oriakhi - formerly of UCONN & Mizzou). So I guess Wes is a bad one to use as well, but since I ran the numbers I might as well post them.

 

[Darth Snow]

I choose the lower graph. That would be an insane frontcourt.

 

[Buffnik]

This team will be good. Some realistic things could make it great.

1. Further development of our "Big 3" of Scott, Ski and XJ.
2. Impact from the incoming freshman (Dom & Miller).
3. Significant year-two leaps from last season's freshmen.

Thanks for posting this, Goose. It's exciting to thing about what even the reasonable expectations should be form last year's freshmen. It almost gets me too excited when I consider what the upsides can be, as you laid out.

Very rep-worthy work. This types of stuff is what separates the hoops coverage on AllBuffs.

 

[tante]

You know when you see a post and you rep someone before you even start reading it because you know it is going to be great. Well Goose did not disappoint. Thanks for the analysis.

 

[Darth Snow]

This team will be good. Some realistic things could make it great.

1. Further development of our "Big 3" of Scott, Ski and XJ.
2. Impact from the incoming freshman (Dom & Miller).
3. Significant year-two leaps from last season's freshmen.

Thanks for posting this, Goose. It's exciting to thing about what even the reasonable expectations should be form last year's freshmen. It almost gets me too excited when I consider what the upsides can be, as you laid out.

Very rep-worthy work. This types of stuff is what separates the hoops coverage on AllBuffs.

1. I think we can expect small improvement from Scott and Ski, with small to medium improvement from XJ. That's just a guess.
2. Dom will have some impact (reading between the lines here);
3. I think we get "significant' year 2 leaps from 1 to 2 guys, with moderate improvement from 1-2 more. That's a guess based on what we know of who has been here all offseason and other articles.

Tad took a team without any of these improvements to a .500 record in conference. Even taking a pessimistic view of the above breakdown, we should expect to be a team that does better than .500 in conference and is on the right side of the bubble.

Don't. Get. Excited. DAMM

 

[BuffG]

The beauty is in the quantity of players primed to make the leap. Some of these guys may remain inconsistent as sophs because that's life but, odds are a couple become highly productive in '14-'15.

My highest expectations are for Wes as it's his 3rd year and he's essential to this team becoming force.

 

[Quattro]

The beauty is in the quantity of players primed to make the leap. Some of these guys may remain inconsistent as sophs because that's life but, odds are a couple become highly productive in '14-'15.

My highest expectations are for Wes as it's his 3rd year and he's essential to this team becoming force.

Talton is another one to watch this year. He improved a lot last year as the year went on and has spent an obscene amount of time working on his shot this Summer. Really hoping he can be the kick out guy who can knock down the trey consistently.

 

[Darth Snow]

Talton is another one to watch this year. He improved a lot last year as the year went on and has spent an obscene amount of time working on his shot this Summer. Really hoping he can be the kick out guy who can knock down the trey consistently.

Damn, can't believe I forgot Talton. Sorry Talton (and Eli!)

 

[BuffG]

Talton is another one to watch this year. He improved a lot last year as the year went on and has spent an obscene amount of time working on his shot this Summer. Really hoping he can be the kick out guy who can knock down the trey consistently.

I foresee a gradual improvement from little X but, his ceiling is limited. Again, though, this is the beauty as one could make a case for any one of 10 guys. That's a first.

 

[Quattro]

I foresee a gradual improvement from little X but, his ceiling is limited. Again, though, this is the beauty as one could make a case for any one of 10 guys. That's a first.

He's been shooting 10,000 shots a day (or something like that), that's gonna pay off

 

[slider]

Any word on Stalzer's quest?

 

[Buffnik]

The beauty is in the quantity of players primed to make the leap. Some of these guys may remain inconsistent as sophs because that's life but, odds are a couple become highly productive in '14-'15.

My highest expectations are for Wes as it's his 3rd year and he's essential to this team becoming force.

I agree. The athleticism is really high, which makes the upside really high. That's one of the biggest changes I've seen with CU hoops.

 

[BuffG]

He's been shooting 10,000 shots a day (or something like that), that's gonna pay off

I don't disagree. XT is already a reliable 3 shooter and could become very good. With him it's more about diagnosing defenses quicker, improving free throws and confidence as a primary ball handler.

On the same token, Ski has been known to have that type of work ethic and yet his 3P% has gone down each of the last two years. 30,000 shots a day alone won't make anyone Steph Curry.

 

[Quattro]

Ski has also been the victim of no one wanting to step up and take a shot near the end of the shot clock, even with Spencer

 

[slider]

Ski has also been the victim of no one wanting to step up and take a shot near the end of the shot clock, even with Spencer

Not more than any other Pac-12 Guard

 

[Buffnik]

Ski has also been the victim of no one wanting to step up and take a shot near the end of the shot clock, even with Spencer

Not more than any other Pac-12 Guard

I think you're both over-stating it.

All teams get bogged down sometimes on offense and someone is forced to create something in the last couple seconds of the shot clock & jack one up.

For most teams, that guy is usually a sharpshooter or a guy who is able to draw contact and get to the line. In recent years, that was Cory, then it was Alec, then Carlon. After that, it should have been Spencer but he deferred a lot to Ski on offense. Ski's not a sharpshooter. He's not a big body who can draw contact while getting a shot off. It's a tough spot for him. He's either shooting from really far out to get space or, if he has enough time, breaking ankles with his quickness to get off a clean 15-20 foot jumper. It's harder for a guy like Ski to fill that role because he's taking lower percentage opportunities than a bigger guard or wing would.

But he's never shied away from it and has called for it. Ski plays from his heart and his balls, which is what we love about him.

What we need this year is for Tad to get the team moving better without the ball and the team moving the ball more crisply. And Ski's teammates have to find a little more of what he's got inside. I've seen too many occasions where someone had a decent look with a few seconds on the clock and passed it up to put Ski in a bad position with almost no time on the clock.

 

[BuffG]

Ski has also been the victim of no one wanting to step up and take a shot near the end of the shot clock, even with Spencer

Which is intertwined with XT & several others improving their confidence.

Still, this is inconsequential evidence for Ski's downward trend in 3P%. He improved his 2P% by 5% with 30 more shots taken than '12-'13 and lost 4% on his 3s with 21 less 3s taken than '12-'13.

 

[Scotch]

XT will be a consistent threat from the perimeter, and he showed the ability to get to the rim. He has the ability to be the best shooter on the team. Hopefully he is able to pick it up on the defensive end, cause there were definitely times last season where he was a liability. Really looking forward to what he can do this season.

Of the sophmores Goose talked about, I'm most looking forward to J-Hop. He's a good jump shot away from being the next Spencer imo.

 

[Darth Snow]

this should be interesting to revisit.