BasketBuffs Season Preview - Ski's Bounce Back Year

[Goose]

Last year, the Colorado Buffaloes went to Charleston, SC to play in the Charleston Classic Tournament. Some people, including myself, thought the team was going to have a rough draw and would probably finish somewhere in the range of 3rd to 6th place. Not only did the Buffs have to open up against Dayton – a team that many expected to be a contender in the A10 last year, but they had to follow it up with potential games against Baylor (who many thought would be a sweet 16 team) and Murray State (who went 31-3 the previous season). So what happened? The Buffs beat all three teams and brought home the title. And the player leading the way was Tournament MVP Askia Booker.

Ski averaged 19.3 points per game in the tourney and had a career high 23 points in the championship game against Murray State to lead the Buffs home. Unfortunately, after the tournament, things went a bit off the rails for Ski, ultimately ending with him shooting only 32% in Pac-12 play last season. He was frustrated, Tad was frustrated, the fans were frustrated. All in all, it was a bad situation.

But there’s good news on the horizon.

I’m a firm believer that Ski is probably the biggest gym rat on the team. You hear about it all the time. No one wants it more than him. So you know he’s working hard. Along with that, according to the KenPom comparable players page, Ski should be due for a bounce back year. The five most similar players to Ski’s season last year according to KenPom are 2007 Rasheem Barrett (Auburn), 2011 Ramon Galloway (South Carolina), 2008 Tajuan Porter (Oregon), 2012 Chrishawn Hopkins (Butler) and 2013 Chasson Randle (Stanford). For this statistical comparison, I’m getting rid of the last two – Hopkins because he was dismissed from Butler after the 2012 season and ended up redshirting last year at Wright State and Randle because he has yet to play the 2014 season so we don’t know how his numbers changed from 2013 to 2014.

Comparing the other three players seasons that were Ski comparisons to their follow up campaigns, there’s reason for optimism. All of them increased their offensive rating, their eFG% and their true shooting % - the numbers that cause the most concern for Ski last year.

Name | Year | %Min | ORtg | %Poss | %Shots | eFG% | TS% | ARate | TORate
Rasheem Barrett|2007|73.6|93.3|21.6|25.3|44.4|46.4|14.8|17.9
Rasheem Barrett|2008|79.8|101.9|22.6|27.2|50.7|52.0|14.5|15.8
Ramon Galloway|2011|60.2|92.1|26|27.7|42.8|46.1|15.0|19.0
Ramon Galloway|2012|75.3|103.1|23.3|23.1|55.8|58.5|20.7|22.7
Tajuan Porter|2008|80.0|100.2|23.9|27.5|49.2|52.0|14.6|17.9
Tajuan Porter|2009|80.1|103.6|23.8|26.9|50.7|55.6|13.3|18.7

So, if those numbers line up for Ski, this is what we could be looking at:

Year | %Min | ORtg | %Poss | %Shots | eFG% | TS% | ARate | TORate
2012|52.2|96.5|25.1|26.5|45.8|51.3|14.8|19.1
2013|78.4|92.9|24.5|29.8|42.2|44.9|15.6|16.3
Proj. 2014|87.2|100.5|24.0|28.7|48.9|51.8|17.0|17.0|

Now, I do want to say that even if he does improve on those numbers, his “traditional” stats may not change much. With as much depth as the Buffs have this year, even with the supposed new faster pace, Ski may not improve on his 12.4 points per game last year. That said, if he’s shooting at a better efficiency, the team probably won’t need him to. Also, I seriously doubt that Ski will be getting 35 mpg, so I think that that number is exaggerated by Ramon Galloway's dramatic uptick in minutes. The other two players stayed with roughly the same amount of PT - and I expect the same for Ski.

All things said, the numbers indicate that we should see a new Ski next season – one that will make all Buff fans happy.

 

[Darth Snow]

aSkia season! Good stuff Goose. If anything, I hope ski's minutes drop a bit. That alone will help his efficiency out.

 

[Buffnik]

If Ski plays efficiently this year and has a bounce-back, this team is good.

Certain things, like his FT%, were well below his skill set suggests it should be. We'll see a significant uptick on that. I also think we'll see more efficiency as he takes it to the hole more, gets some more assists, and does a better job of picking his spots from deep. Double digits with 75%+ from the line, 40+% from the field, double digit scoring average and 3 assists per game would not surprise me at all.

People get critical of Ski, but there aren't a lot of guys who can drop 25 points on a team at this level of competition. Ski can do that. He's a talented dude and we need him.

 

[jgisland]

I've got a Baylor preview coming later this week - but I'll drop a bit of the Askia portion as it's very fitting to Goose's excellent work:



Where will Askia shoot from? – I went into length last season on what I perceive as one of the main reasons he struggled, he quit taking the ball to the rack and was settling for inefficient mid-range jumpers. I stand by that and I have this to add – Booker has got to take the ball to the rim in the transition game as well. In transition the defense is already backpedaling, recovering and out of position, why settle for a mid-range jumper? Attack, attack attack! As you can see below, the difference is astounding in where Booker took shots from his freshman year to his sophomore year in transition. His freshman year he took 50% of shots in transition at the rim, that dropped by 27% in his sophomore year. Booker has got to take the ball to the rim, even if doesn’t convert at a higher rate than his 45.5% last year, taking the ball to the rack will equate to more trips to the line where he was a respectable 74% free throw shooter last year.

Transition attempts occur within the first 10 seconds of possessions that start with a steal, a defensive rebound, or a made basket by the opponent. They only include the first shot of a possession.
​

Year	Name	% shots at rim in transition	%made baskets at the rim coming in transition	% shots 2pt Jumpers in transition	%made 2pt Jumpers coming in transition	% shots 3s in transition	%made 3s in coming transition
2013	Booker, Askia	23.00%	45.50%	41.30%	32.80%	35.70%	25.00%
2012	Booker, Askia	50.00%	55.00%	24.40%	31.40%	25.60%	17.20%

 

[Scotch]

JG, if I'm understanding you right, its not that he's shooting the mid-range jumpers, he's just shooting too many?

 

[jgisland]

JG, if I'm understanding you right, its not that he's shooting the mid-range jumpers, he's just shooting too many?

Well....I'd prefer him never to shoot a mid-range jumper. The issue is he traded shooting a high volume of shots around the rim where he is very efficient for mid-range jumpers where he is not. If he would had offset some of the shots around the rim for 3's I'd be ok with that, he's a decent three point shooter, just not mid-range.

This had a huge impact on his ability to get to the line last year as well. He got to the line at double the rate his freshman year vs his sophomore year per field goal attempted.

 

[Buffnik]

Well....I'd prefer him never to shoot a mid-range jumper. The issue is he traded shooting a high volume of shots around the rim where he is very efficient for mid-range jumpers where he is not. If he would had offset some of the shots around the rim for 3's I'd be ok with that, he's a decent three point shooter, just not mid-range.

This had a huge impact on his ability to get to the line last year as well. He got to the line at double the rate his freshman year vs his sophomore year per field goal attempted.

Is this particular to Ski or do you not like mid-range jumpers in general from a guard?

Are guys like Alec and Mayor outliers in terms of being able to create contact at 8-15 feet and power through on the shot, often getting to the line?

 

[Scotch]

Well....I'd prefer him never to shoot a mid-range jumper. The issue is he traded shooting a high volume of shots around the rim where he is very efficient for mid-range jumpers where he is not. If he would had offset some of the shots around the rim for 3's I'd be ok with that, he's a decent three point shooter, just not mid-range.

This had a huge impact on his ability to get to the line last year as well. He got to the line at double the rate his freshman year vs his sophomore year per field goal attempted.

Which is weird because he has a good stroke from mid-range, i.e. just looks more comfortable. His 3-ball form looks labored most the time.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

If ski gets the ball in rhythm on the perimeter, he tends to be much more accurate. IE shoots off the pass, or side step/step back following a dribble. If he is working the arc, and gets stuck or has to force it, it is usually very ugly.

 

[jgisland]

Is this particular to Ski or do you not like mid-range jumpers in general from a guard?

Are guys like Alec and Mayor outliers in terms of being able to create contact at 8-15 feet and power through on the shot, often getting to the line?

In general the mid-range jumper just doesn't make sense anymore, this article goes super into depth. But let's use Ski as the example - last year he shot 34.3% from mid range, 31.2% from 3 and 52.4% at the rim (this is overall, what I quoted before was his transition shooting). So say he shoots 10 shots as 2 point jumpers, the expected return on that is 6.86 points. If he shoots 10 3's his expected return is 9.36 points and if he shoots 10 shots at the rim his expected return is 10.48 points. So why shoot so many freaking jumpers?

The average NCAA team shot 35.06 from two while shooting 60.04 % at the rim and 32.84% from 3. It just doesn't mathematically make sense from an efficiency standpoint to shoot mid-range jumpers. Your always going to have outliers to this, guys like Allen Crabbe who shot 46.9% and Jordan Adams who shot 45.1% from mid range (Adams is actually interesting, he's a great mid-range shooter and a terrible 3pt shooter, only 30.7%) but in general it just doesn't make sense.

To your other point - I do think that Alec and the Mayor are outliers at creating contact away from the rim. I'll have to do some do some looking into this, but I'd imagine that teams that take a higher % of shots around the rim get to the line at a much higher rate than teams that take more mid-range and 3 point shots.

 

[Buffnik]

Thanks, jg. Rep.

Coaches are absolutely right when they say to attack the rim.

FWIW, my favorite 3pt shot is the kick out after an offensive rebound. Guys are able to take that within rhythm and it's the way we all learned to shoot growing up with dad or a friend or a coach passing us the ball out from under the rim. High comfort level on that. I'd expect the percentage is a lot higher on 3 pointers taken that way. CSU killed teams on that last season.

 

[TDforTD]

The thing is, a mid-range jumpshot can be the difference between being a CP3/Tony Parker and a Rajon Rondo. Ultimately, a good defense is just going to sag off you and make you prove you can hit a shot, limiting your abilities to drive and create. If Rondo wasnt elite on the other side of the ball, I think he'd be next to useless come playoff time. The value of a mid-range shot is underrated sabrmetrically.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

We're close Nik ..... my favorite 3 point shot happens when a guard or wing drives the lane and draws extra defensive attention, and then kicks the ball out to a wide-open teammate at the arc who then has 1/2 a year to lock, load, and fire.

 

[jgisland]

Are guys like Alec and Mayor outliers in terms of being able to create contact at 8-15 feet and power through on the shot, often getting to the line?

My sample size sucks, 1 season, b/c it's kind of a PITA to calculate. But there is a fairly strong correlation between the amount shots a team takes at the rim and the amount they get to the line, while there is a small negative correlation between teams that shoot a lot of mid-range jumpers and how often they get to the line. That obviously passes the eyeball test, you'd think the more you take it to the rack the more you'd get fouled vs shooting mid-range jumpers.

 

[Goose]

Year	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	ARate	TORate
Proj. 2014	87.2	100.5	24.0	28.7	48.9	51.8	17.0	17.0

Update heading in to conference play:

Year	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	ARate	TORate
2014	67.2	100.6	24.7	31.7	47.3	50.2	16.9	18.0

I'd like to see his shooting percentages come up a touch and the turnover rate go down a touch obviously, but as long as that ORtg stays where it's at, I'm incredibly happy with Ski. Kid's been phenomenal. Last two games he's put up ORtgs of 129 and 148. Keep it up Ski.

 

[Darth Snow]

gotta think the lower minutes are a big part of keeping his efficiency numbers up.

 

[jwhite17]

Update heading in to conference play:

Year	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	ARate	TORate
2014	67.2	100.6	24.7	31.7	47.3	50.2	16.9	18.0

I'd like to see his shooting percentages come up a touch and the turnover rate go down a touch obviously, but as long as that ORtg stays where it's at, I'm incredibly happy with Ski. Kid's been phenomenal. Last two games he's put up ORtgs of 129 and 148. Keep it up Ski.

I would take 7/12 from Ski everytime. I don't see him doing that often, but he is getting better picking his spots. He isn't forcing as many off-balanced jumpers this year compared to last.

If he can start hitting threes, that would really open up our offense. Teams are sagging off of Ski and giving him great looks, so if he starts hitting those, Dinwiddie, Scott and XJ will get more opportunities for good looks at the rim.