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Class ranks by average # of P5 offers (from 2012 on)

KCM

Club Member
Club Member
I’ve been curious about the 2020 class, so I did a quick analysis on the on the average number of P5 offers per class from 2012 - 2020. I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 5.68 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, S. Sneed, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller
 

Creebuzz

Survives on seaweed and Natty Boh.
Club Member
I think MacIntyre was a pretty solid x and o’s coach, but recruiting was terrible under his reign. If you dig even deeper in those 2015-2018 classes, it gets worse with the attrition of the most highly ranked/recruited players. Patrick Carr left for Houston, Bisharat was never moved until Tucker came on board. Huntley didn’t pan out. Moretti was a mirage from day one. Polley quit football almost immediately. Antwine transferred. K. Ray will be a contributor down the line, but he was injured and sort of fell to CU. Most of the successes on the notable list are from Chev or Hagan.

How many NFL teams blow the draft year in and year out and are good? None, right. Not recruiting well is the college version of blowing the draft.

I am certain Tucker gets that, but he has to do it. Recruit, recruit, recruit.
 

93Buff

Well-Known Member
Thanks for doing that Research. That's very interesting. Shows how winning helped a ton in 2016.....

Tucker has a good chance to reach 10 recruits with 10+ P5 offers.
 

White_Rabbit

Club Member
Club Member
great post, excellent work on the research!

deer god 2013-2015
0ShDtUWK_400x400.jpg


maybe our expectations should've been lower with junior and senior classes in that realm? I hate to accept not bowling as ok since damnit everyone else goes bowling constantly, but man we lack talent in a big way. Depth we knew was terrible coming into the year, but top end talent might not be great either.
 

Mr. Babar

I have no elephant books
Club Member
Great work, KCM. That was eye opening. Tucker is raising the bar on who we are targeting. Like that more emphasis is being placed in the trenches, we have to have better OL and DL depth.
 

jizzrag85

Well-Known Member
Just finish out strong and this is a good first class for Tucker and Co. Imagine what he might be able to do if CU was competitive, even good. 🤔
 

The Ogre

Well-Known Member
Some of you are panicking, but I see signs of an improving defensive class before signing day(s). Maybe big time.

Tucker is relentless, and not dumb enough to miss the big picture.

Rupture the trojans!
 

pcbuff

Well-Known Member
Some of you are panicking, but I see signs of an improving defensive class before signing day(s). Maybe big time.

Tucker is relentless, and not dumb enough to miss the big picture.

Rupture the trojans!
He also seems more willing to backfill with JC Guys and some of them are seeing legit opportunities. I
 

BuffUp

[insert punctuation here]
Club Member
off the subject a tad... HCMT does impress with the ability to play the best player.
 

KCM

Club Member
Club Member
I’ve been curious about the 2020 class, so I did a quick analysis on the on the average number of P5 offers per class from 2012 - 2020. I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 5.68 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, S. Sneed, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller

Removed J. Jackson and J. Coates (might have jumped the gun). Added Clayton, Gonzalez and Pittman. Changes the results to:

2020 - 6.4 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, S. Sneed, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez

With J. Berry it would be 6.57...
 

delabuffs

Well-Known Member
What does Alfano do to 19 or 20 if you put him in either class? Sorry for the misappropriation of your IP- really like the analysis!
 
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Bear Fiend

Club Member
Club Member
Removed J. Jackson and J. Coates (might have jumped the gun). Added Clayton, Gonzalez and Pittman. Changes the results to:

2020 - 6.4 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, S. Sneed, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez

With J. Berry it would be 6.57...
Sneed needs to be removed.
 

KCM

Club Member
Club Member
Sneed needs to be removed.

Removed Sneed. Thanks!


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.1 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez

With J. Berry it would be 6.4...
With J. Berry and Alfano (I intentionally excluded him) it would be 6.57...
 

manhattanbuff

Club Member
Club Member
Removed Sneed. Thanks!


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.1 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez

With J. Berry it would be 6.4...
With J. Berry and Alfano (I intentionally excluded him) it would be 6.57...
If Coach Tucker can close this class, that would be an incredible upgrade in recruiting for our program. Seeing it laid out this way is stunning, actually.
 

Bear Fiend

Club Member
Club Member
Removed Sneed. Thanks!


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.1 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez

With J. Berry it would be 6.4...
With J. Berry and Alfano (I intentionally excluded him) it would be 6.57...
6.4 on the KCM scale baby!
 

skibum

Did not pee on the Alamo.
Club Member
I’ve been curious about the 2020 class, so I did a quick analysis on the on the average number of P5 offers per class from 2012 - 2020. I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 5.68 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, S. Sneed, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller
I'm late to this, but why not use the median number of offers - it's one of the best ways to deal with outliers distorting the mean?

That little nit aside, great job! Thanks for the effort.

I think the take away is that pretty much any way you measure it, recruiting is taking a meaningful jump under HCMT.
 
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