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The Alabaster Yak

Club Member
Club Member
To answer your question, yes. All the hypotheticals we use to determine who should go to the CFP are a function of a lot of the top teams not playing head-to-head. My belief is that if both teams have the same record, and they played each other that season, you give the nod to whoever won that matchup.
And Oregon beat them in Columbus. I agree with you. I just think there is/will be an argument that Ohio State has a much better overall resume and won the B1G which is unquestionably a better conference than the Pac 12.

FWIW, Klatt shares your concerns and agrees with you about H2H
 

CUAviator

Well-Known Member
Can someone explain to me how Ohio State is projected to be a 50/50 for the CFP (by The Athletic) at 6-1 with 0 wins over a ranked team this year, meanwhile Oregon is 6-1 coming off a road victory over a ranked opponent and actually beat OSU in Columbus, but has just a 2.9% chance to make the playoff?

WTF am I missing here?
Here’s how much they think of Oregon - they were a 10 (12 some places) underdog to UCLA this weekend. Also, folks probably expect them to lose to OSU* (I do).
*Oregon State
 

CUAviator

Well-Known Member
So head-to-head means nothing? Lets say both teams finish the year 11-1 (OSU won't), I don't see how you could possibly put OSU in over Oregon. That would be crazy.
Head to head really might not. If OSU finishes with one loss, that means they beat Penn State, Mich, MSU. Honestly, what does Oregon have to compare that to. It’s kind of like the argument people make about the ONE big game Boise won every year but then played a **** schedule the rest of the year.
(just playing devil’s advocate)
 

skibum

Did not pee on the Alamo.
Club Member
Right now 538's model gives Oregon a 20% chance of making the playoff and tOSU a 36% chance. I place more credibility on this model in general - mostly because they are transparent in how the model works, and, well, they're clearly the leader when it comes to building predictive sports models based on statistical data.

If both teams win out, 538 gives UO an 81% chance of being in vs 92% for tOSU - so it's not a huge disparity.

I think if all three of tOSU, UO and OU win out, SEC only gets one in, and Cincy is out.

I don't think all three will win out though and an undefeated Cincy would slide into "their" slot.
 

The Alabaster Yak

Club Member
Club Member
Right now 538's model gives Oregon a 20% chance of making the playoff and tOSU a 36% chance. I place more credibility on this model in general - mostly because they are transparent in how the model works, and, well, they're clearly the leader when it comes to building predictive sports models based on statistical data.

If both teams win out, 538 gives UO an 81% chance of being in vs 92% for tOSU - so it's not a huge disparity.

I think if all three of tOSU, UO and OU win out, SEC only gets one in, and Cincy is out.

I don't think all three will win out though and an undefeated Cincy would slide into "their" slot.
Yeah, I think Oregon has a real shot to win out, but tOSU and and OU have a much tougher road.
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
Wow. Ok. That’s surprising to me that he’d actually say that. I expect he’s already gotten a call from CSU.
I'm sure it's me, but I'm not following you here.

edit: saw torero's post -- maybe it's not me.
 
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Creebuzz

Survives on seaweed and Natty Boh.
Club Member
Wow. Ok. That’s surprising to me that he’d actually say that. I expect he’s already gotten a call from CSU.
I suspect you are confusing PAC 12 conference expansion with college football playoff expansion. The PAC 12 isn’t adding 8 or 12 teams.

And the college football playoff would have to expand by a 100 to include CSU. Maybe 120.
 

Not Sure

Sets low bar, barely exceeds it.
Club Member
I suspect you are confusing PAC 12 conference expansion with college football playoff expansion. The PAC 12 isn’t adding 8 or 12 teams.

And the college football playoff would have to expand by a 100 to include CSU. Maybe 120.
Yes. Sorry. I read that as conference expansion not CFP expansion. Thanks.
 

buff4bcs1985

Hope Poisons the Soul
Club Member
E90MrLgXEAMKv7t


White Girl Coffee GIF by Trey Kennedy
 

Not Sure

Sets low bar, barely exceeds it.
Club Member
Not that I’d want it for myself, but you gotta admit “pole assassin” would be a great screen name.
 
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