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How you see the rest of the way
- Thread starter crosby87
- Start date
Went with 3, as well.
4. 12-6. 3-4 way tie for p12 champion. This kind of ****ed up **** is the way CU does things.
We need both the OR teams to be Quad 1 games and we need to get a split from that road trip -- if we want to be in position for the conference title and/or a great seed in the Dance.
Unleash Hell
Well-Known Member
WASH W
WSU W
@UCLA W
@USC W
CAL W
STAN W
@ORE L
@OSU W
USC W
UCLA W
@CAL L
@STAN L
@UTAH W
WSU W
@UCLA W
@USC W
CAL W
STAN W
@ORE L
@OSU W
USC W
UCLA W
@CAL L
@STAN L
@UTAH W
That would make us 24-7 on the season and no worse than a 3-seed for the Pac-12 tourney. But, damn, you're killing me. That Bay Area trip would cost us the regular season title and the Cal loss, in particular, would cause the anti-Tad crowd to call for his head. It would be the most CU hoops thing ever.
Would also be the best CU regular season in my lifetime. I think.That would make us 24-7 on the season and no worse than a 3-seed for the Pac-12 tourney. But, damn, you're killing me. That Bay Area trip would cost us the regular season title and the Cal loss, in particular, would cause the anti-Tad crowd to call for his head. It would be the most CU hoops thing ever.
Here's the win probabilities in the remaining games according to ESPN's BPI
Gotta be 4-0 at home the rest of the way.
Shot at the conference title if we pull off a win @Oregon, and win 3 or 4 (probably 4) of the other 6 games on the road.
Not sure if I can stay up for the 1030PM start time on the East coast for this USC game; either outcome will probably disturb my sleep.
I really hope we're looking at that game in Stanford with a very real chance to win the regular season title.
Hopeful expectations aside, I'd bet on 8-3 the rest of the way, taking care of business at home, losing @Oregon and 2 other road games, not sure which ones, best bets would be USC and Oregon State in my mind.
| Opponent | Win Probability |
| @ UCLA | 0.716 |
| @ USC | 0.423 |
| Cal | 0.958 |
| Stanford | 0.799 |
| @ Oregon | 0.242 |
| @ Oregon St | 0.588 |
| USC | 0.761 |
| UCLA | 0.927 |
| @ Cal | 0.835 |
| @ Stanford | 0.398 |
| @ Utah | 0.706 |
Gotta be 4-0 at home the rest of the way.
Shot at the conference title if we pull off a win @Oregon, and win 3 or 4 (probably 4) of the other 6 games on the road.
Not sure if I can stay up for the 1030PM start time on the East coast for this USC game; either outcome will probably disturb my sleep.
I really hope we're looking at that game in Stanford with a very real chance to win the regular season title.
Hopeful expectations aside, I'd bet on 8-3 the rest of the way, taking care of business at home, losing @Oregon and 2 other road games, not sure which ones, best bets would be USC and Oregon State in my mind.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Sure Losses: @Oregon
Tossups: @USC
Wins: Every other game (Im not buying Stanford).
That gives us 25-26 wins?
You're taking anything above 70% win probability as a sure win.
Just as an example take the probability of winning all 3 of @Utah (.706), USC (.761), and @UCLA (.716), that's ~38% of winning all 3.
In no manner is BPI projecting what you're saying.
Unleash Hell
Well-Known Member
Buffs are tied with Oregon and SC for 2nd in the conference right now.
Need to win at least one in the LA trip, but man do I want to beat SC and their asshole coach and asshole fans.
Need to win at least one in the LA trip, but man do I want to beat SC and their asshole coach and asshole fans.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
I don't really care about BPI or analytics like that in general. If its the metric I'm thinking of, it punishes a team like us because we play at altitude. I look at what we have left and think the only game that I'd be flat stunned if we win is @Oregon. As far as some of these other games, I think we're going to beat Utah for example. They clearly laid an egg in the first game against us, but do you know how big a psychological hurdle you've created for yourself in a second game against a team when you get demolished in the first game like they did here? I think we can beat USC and Stanford-Would it shock me if we lost to either away from home? No.
Based on the predictive metrics out there, expectations for our Buffs the rest of the way are to go 7-4 in our final 11 games to finish 23-8 (12-6).
I think that's a good benchmark to look at when the regular season is over. Meet or exceed that and I'd expect everyone to be very happy with how the regular season went.
I think that's a good benchmark to look at when the regular season is over. Meet or exceed that and I'd expect everyone to be very happy with how the regular season went.
Unleash Hell
Well-Known Member
UCLA W
@USC W
CAL W
STAN W
@ORE W
@OSU W
USC W
UCLA W
@CAL W
@STAN W
@UTAH W
Regular season Pac-12 Champions!!!
Pac 12 quarters W
Pac 12 semis W
Pac 12 Final W
Pac 12 tournament champions!!!
NCAA 2nd round W
NCAA 3rd round W
NCAA Sweet 16 W
NCAA Elite 8 W
NCAA Final 4 W
NCAA Championship W
National Champions!!!
@USC W
CAL W
STAN W
@ORE W
@OSU W
USC W
UCLA W
@CAL W
@STAN W
@UTAH W
Regular season Pac-12 Champions!!!
Pac 12 quarters W
Pac 12 semis W
Pac 12 Final W
Pac 12 tournament champions!!!
NCAA 2nd round W
NCAA 3rd round W
NCAA Sweet 16 W
NCAA Elite 8 W
NCAA Final 4 W
NCAA Championship W
National Champions!!!
68buffs
Well-Known Member
Agree with you on SC, question to you or anyone else if say we lose to UCLA and beat SC, would that drop us in the NET or Ken Pom rating and reverse the win and loss would the team more likely stay around the same in theratings. TIA
If it’s a split this week, I’d
Me too. Totally.
go on...
BehindEnemyLines
beware the habu
This place is full of smart asses
We'll beat UCLA because they're not great, Tad owns them and we match up well with them. It'll be close, though. We'll lose to SC because they're at home, they'll play salty because they're lil' bitches, we'll get shafted on calls, and the score we'll be something like 74-64. That will lead to the trolls on this board screaming to the heavens that season is crashing before our very eyes and Tad has to go. We'll then come home, win our next two, be 19-5 and start the whole process again on the road in Oregon when Oregon slaps us, but we rebound and beat OSU to get revenge, then come home and...
