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Minutes Lost / Holes To Fill

Goose

Goose

Hoops Moderator
Club Member
Junta Member
Warning - long post with lots of numbers. I was told there would be no math, so if you want to just skip it, the high level analysis is that we either need guards for next year or we need one of Clifford, Ruffin or Hammond to make a MASSIVE contribution next year.

Obviously lots of discussion has been had over next year's team and where the holes are that CU is going to need to fill with the last two scholarships they have available so I decided to run some numbers to see where we stand. So first, let's look at what we're losing this offseason (position % is from KenPom):

* McKinley Wright - 32.5 mpg (78% of PG minutes)
* D'Shawn Schwartz - 28 mpg (67% of SF minutes)
* Jeriah Horne - 24.5 mpg (56% of PF minutes)
* Maddox Daniels - 18.3 mpg (19% of SG minutes, 19% of SF minutes)
* Dallas Walton - 15 mpg (29% of C minutes)

So that leaves us with the following holes to fill:

* PG - 78% of minutes available
* SG - 19% of minutes available
* SF - 86% of minutes available
* PF - 56% of minutes available
* C - 29% of minutes available

The first thing I did to fill those minutes was take the returning rotation players and slightly adjust their minutes using my best guesses. This is a wild card and I could be way off, but I went more conservative than anything in my guesses. Please feel free to make arguments if you see something that is off.

* Eli Parquet - went from 28 mpg to 30 mpg
* Evan Battey - went from 25.7 mpg to 28 mpg
* Jabari Walker - went from 14.2 mpg to 25 mpg
* Keeshawn Barthelemey - went from 11.5 mpg to 20 mpg
* Tristan De Silva - went from 9.3 mpg to 18 mpg

Of these, the two I feel I am most likely to be wrong on are Kee (I think he'll probably play closer to 25, but am scared to assume that at this point) and TDS (not sure if he'll double his minutes, but basically plugged him in for Daniels' PT). Next, I'm going to pull in Lawson Lovering and Quincy Allen - and this is where I give a small sample size warning. To figure out their minutes, I pulled up the top 50 recruits list for 2020 and checked to see how many minutes per game those guys played. The average top 50 recruit last year played 21.9 mpg. But when I looked closer at the numbers, it depended a lot upon your position. So using what 247sports judged each player to play, the breakdown went as follows:

* PG - 26.3 mpg
* CG - 23.7 mpg
* SG - 28.3 mpg
* SF - 18.5 mpg
* PF - 19.7 mpg
* C - 16.4 mpg

Big men get less PT their freshman year - which makes sense when you think about it. They're not as physically prepared and they have to pick up lots of little nuances that the smaller guys don't. In fact, only two centers and two power forwards were in the top 20 for minutes played among this group. Throw in Zaire Williams (SF, Stanford) with them and the other 15 players in the top 20 were all guards. Good news for Allen, bad for Lovering. For Allen, I split the baby between SG and SF and gave him 23 mpg and gave Lovering 16 mpg. With that, we have the following minutes set up (note: using KenPom for minutes by position as well):

* PG - 20 mpg (Kee - 20)
* SG - 36 mpg (Eli - 30, TDS - 6)
* SF - 35 mpg (Allen - 23, TDS - 12)
* PF - 29 mpg (Walker - 25, Battey - 4)
* C - 40 mpg (Battey - 24, Lovering - 16)

Note - personally, I think TDS' minutes would be skewed more towards the SF/PF position than SG/SF position - especially when we get to the last spots on our bench and getting them minutes - but wanted to stay consistent and use KP numbers throughout. This gives us a 7 man rotation, so you have to figure we'll at least have one quality contributor and 2 more that provide spot minutes. Now the question is - are those minutes coming from anyone on our roster? I haven't factored in any minutes from O'Brien, Clifford, Ruffin or Hammond. Can any of them contribute? My personal opinion is that one of Clifford, Ruffin or Hammond is going to be able to provide TDS' type minutes and give us 9-10 mpg. If so, that helps with the PG/SG minutes.

Looking over that, it's pretty clear - we need a PG. With the last two spots, I'd prioritize guards (shocker, I know). One PURE PG and one combo guard. We can slide TDS down to the PF and fill minutes there. I also think Lovering will probably be ready to play 20 mpg. If so, with those two moves, the C and PF minutes are completely covered.

(Please sign TyTy Washington and Shahada Wells. Thank you)
 
You can quibble here and there, but look at this and it's no surprise most of the smoke is about transfer guards
 
Not Sure said:
Doom?
Click to expand...

In no way. If we have PG play - either through Kee taking a gigantic leap, one of the guards on the roster providing solid support minutes or by landing a frosh/transfer, we're going to be very good. Lower floor than this year's team, but potentially a higher ceiling.
 
The Office GIF
 
I agree the key is signing a complimentary guard to Kee. A combo guard with experience would be ideal. I would still like to see a transfer power forward brought in as well because Pac-12 officials seem to love calling fouls on Battey and Walker. Barring any craziness (good or bad) this group you laid out would be Tad's starters going into the offseason knowing what he likes/wants:

G - Barthelemey
G - Parquet
F - De Silva
F - Walker
F - Battey

Then you have...
First 4: Transfer Guard, Allen, Lovering, Ruffin
Next 4: O'Brien, Clifford, Hammond, your mom

2 solid transfers and a healthy team and we could grind our way to a 20-12 type season.
 
I understand why minutes weren't given to Nique and O'Brien. I think this will end up being an error. One of them will be a part of the rotation. My guess is O'Brien. He looked like a bouncier Schwarz when he got minutes during the second half of the season.
 
I didn’t realize we had to replace so much and had so little coming back.

Yea please on TyTy
 
Goose said:
Warning - long post with lots of numbers. I was told there would be no math, so if you want to just skip it, the high level analysis is that we either need guards for next year or we need one of Clifford, Ruffin or Hammond to make a MASSIVE contribution next year.

Obviously lots of discussion has been had over next year's team and where the holes are that CU is going to need to fill with the last two scholarships they have available so I decided to run some numbers to see where we stand. So first, let's look at what we're losing this offseason (position % is from KenPom):

* McKinley Wright - 32.5 mpg (78% of PG minutes)
* D'Shawn Schwartz - 28 mpg (67% of SF minutes)
* Jeriah Horne - 24.5 mpg (56% of PF minutes)
* Maddox Daniels - 18.3 mpg (19% of SG minutes, 19% of SF minutes)
* Dallas Walton - 15 mpg (29% of C minutes)

So that leaves us with the following holes to fill:

* PG - 78% of minutes available
* SG - 19% of minutes available
* SF - 86% of minutes available
* PF - 56% of minutes available
* C - 29% of minutes available

The first thing I did to fill those minutes was take the returning rotation players and slightly adjust their minutes using my best guesses. This is a wild card and I could be way off, but I went more conservative than anything in my guesses. Please feel free to make arguments if you see something that is off.

* Eli Parquet - went from 28 mpg to 30 mpg
* Evan Battey - went from 25.7 mpg to 28 mpg
* Jabari Walker - went from 14.2 mpg to 25 mpg
* Keeshawn Barthelemey - went from 11.5 mpg to 20 mpg
* Tristan De Silva - went from 9.3 mpg to 18 mpg

Of these, the two I feel I am most likely to be wrong on are Kee (I think he'll probably play closer to 25, but am scared to assume that at this point) and TDS (not sure if he'll double his minutes, but basically plugged him in for Daniels' PT). Next, I'm going to pull in Lawson Lovering and Quincy Allen - and this is where I give a small sample size warning. To figure out their minutes, I pulled up the top 50 recruits list for 2020 and checked to see how many minutes per game those guys played. The average top 50 recruit last year played 21.9 mpg. But when I looked closer at the numbers, it depended a lot upon your position. So using what 247sports judged each player to play, the breakdown went as follows:

* PG - 26.3 mpg
* CG - 23.7 mpg
* SG - 28.3 mpg
* SF - 18.5 mpg
* PF - 19.7 mpg
* C - 16.4 mpg

Big men get less PT their freshman year - which makes sense when you think about it. They're not as physically prepared and they have to pick up lots of little nuances that the smaller guys don't. In fact, only two centers and two power forwards were in the top 20 for minutes played among this group. Throw in Zaire Williams (SF, Stanford) with them and the other 15 players in the top 20 were all guards. Good news for Allen, bad for Lovering. For Allen, I split the baby between SG and SF and gave him 23 mpg and gave Lovering 16 mpg. With that, we have the following minutes set up (note: using KenPom for minutes by position as well):

* PG - 20 mpg (Kee - 20)
* SG - 36 mpg (Eli - 30, TDS - 6)
* SF - 35 mpg (Allen - 23, TDS - 12)
* PF - 29 mpg (Walker - 25, Battey - 4)
* C - 40 mpg (Battey - 24, Lovering - 16)

Note - personally, I think TDS' minutes would be skewed more towards the SF/PF position than SG/SF position - especially when we get to the last spots on our bench and getting them minutes - but wanted to stay consistent and use KP numbers throughout. This gives us a 7 man rotation, so you have to figure we'll at least have one quality contributor and 2 more that provide spot minutes. Now the question is - are those minutes coming from anyone on our roster? I haven't factored in any minutes from O'Brien, Clifford, Ruffin or Hammond. Can any of them contribute? My personal opinion is that one of Clifford, Ruffin or Hammond is going to be able to provide TDS' type minutes and give us 9-10 mpg. If so, that helps with the PG/SG minutes.

Looking over that, it's pretty clear - we need a PG. With the last two spots, I'd prioritize guards (shocker, I know). One PURE PG and one combo guard. We can slide TDS down to the PF and fill minutes there. I also think Lovering will probably be ready to play 20 mpg. If so, with those two moves, the C and PF minutes are completely covered.

(Please sign TyTy Washington and Shahada Wells. Thank you)
Click to expand...
Mods can we change his handle to rumblinbuff?

awesome post. Thanks
 
BuffsNYC said:
I understand why minutes weren't given to Nique and O'Brien. I think this will end up being an error. One of them will be a part of the rotation. My guess is O'Brien. He looked like a bouncier Schwarz when he got minutes during the second half of the season.
Click to expand...
I'm confused why people think Nique or O'Brien looked anywhere near being ready for any significant time next year. Both looked lost and over their head.
 
Good breakdown, thanks.

Keep in mind that since Tad has been here we have seen multiple instances of players making a big jump in performance in one off season. Hard to predict which guys and some guys we really hoped would make that jump didn't but don't be shocked if we see Kee or Nique make a big jump and earn minutes.

That stated if Tad gets TyTy he will take up a big chunk of minutes right from the start.

Also I would be very surprised if we don't see significant minutes from Allen. He is the kind of recruit that plays wherever he would have signed.
 
MtnBuff said:
Good breakdown, thanks.

Keep in mind that since Tad has been here we have seen multiple instances of players making a big jump in performance in one off season. Hard to predict which guys and some guys we really hoped would make that jump didn't but don't be shocked if we see Kee or Nique make a big jump and earn minutes.

That stated if Tad gets TyTy he will take up a big chunk of minutes right from the start.

Also I would be very surprised if we don't see significant minutes from Allen. He is the kind of recruit that plays wherever he would have signed.
Click to expand...
On your first point, everyone remember what George King looked like as a freshman? Woof...lol. Tad turned him into an NBA draft pick.

On Quincy Allen...I expect him to start.
 
bombay said:
The few times I saw O'brian on the court, he looked like a hard-nosed guy. Maybe he'll make a jump.
Click to expand...
He looks more athletic than I give him credit for every time I see him. If you go back to, I want to say is recruiting thread, I basically called him a waste of a scholarship.

I now think he's got massive upside.
 
Medford M. said:
He looks more athletic than I give him credit for every time I see him. If you go back to, I want to say is recruiting thread, I basically called him a waste of a scholarship.

I now think he's got massive upside.
Click to expand...
Saw him play twice at Columbine, against weak competition but I liked his stroke from distance, his BB IQ and ability to drive at 6'7", not particularly defensive minded He was athletic but not explosive. On a very small sample size he seems tougher, willing to mix it up and has a good feel for the game. I'm not unhappy with him as a 6'7 or 6'8" wing who may have some good upside in his next 3-4 years.
 
Goose said:
Thats my guess. Do we go big and start Lovering and bring Jabari off the bench? Similar to Dallas & Horne?
Click to expand...
It would be very interesting for Allen and Lovering to come in and steal starting spots from Jabari. Would mean they are both really really good and that Tad was able to convince Jabari he can get drafted as a 6th man.
 
Goose said:
Thats my guess. Do we go big and start Lovering and bring Jabari off the bench? Similar to Dallas & Horne?
Click to expand...
If Evan doesn't improve his jumper this offseason, it could be him coming off the bench.
 
Buffnik said:
If Evan doesn't improve his jumper this offseason, it could be him coming off the bench.
Click to expand...

Hes too important on D. He’s our QB out there directing people - especially when we’re starting at least one frosh and an inexperienced PG.
 
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