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NET Watch 2020

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
As a quick summary, NET is what's used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to determine the at-large bids and the seeding for the Dance. On that, one of the key components they'll look at is a team's performance against its schedule -- good wins against Quad 1 and bad losses against Quad 4 seem to be the things they really take note of.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353


CU's opponents are listed below along with our result against them plus their NET Rank and Quad, which I'll try to keep updated.

UPDATED THROUGH SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2ND, GAMES.

OpponentRecordCU ResultNET RankQuad
Arizona State13-881-71 Win (Neutral)542
San Diego8-1671-53 Win (Home)2114
UC Irvine14-969-53 Win (Home)1163
Wyoming6-1756-41 Win (Neutral)2934
Clemson11-1071-67 Win (Neutral)1013
Sacramento State11-859-45 Win (Home)1994
Loyola Marymount8-1576-64 Win (Home)2294
Kansas18-358-72 Loss (Away)41
Northern Iowa19-376-79 Loss (Home)372
Colorado State16-856-48 Win (Away)952
Prairie View A&M10-1183-64 Win (Home)1914
Dayton20-278-76 Win (Neutral)51
Iona5-1299-54 Win (Home)2644
Oregon18-574-65 Win (Home)251
Oregon State13-968-76 Loss (Home)672
Utah12-991-52 Win (Home)702
Arizona State13-868-61 Win (Away)541
Arizona15-654-75 Loss (Away)101
Washington State13-1078-56 Win (Home)1063
Washington12-1176-62 Win (Home)602
UCLA12-1068-72 Loss (Away)992
USC17-578-57 Win (Away)471
Cal10-1171-65 Win (Home)1513
Stanford16-581-74 Win (Home)301
Oregon18-5(Away)251
Oregon State13-9(Away)671
USC17-5(Home)472
UCLA12-10(Home)993
Cal10-11(Away)1513
Stanford16-5(Away)301
Utah12-9(Away)701

CU Record: 19-5
Quad 1: 5-2
Quad 2: 4-3
Quad 3: 4-0
Quad 4: 6-0
NET Rank: 16
 
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Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
This week, beating Wazzu would keep us undefeated in Quad 3 games (we're also undefeated in Quad 4 games). No bad losses is a big deal.

UDub could push us to 4-2 in Quad 2 games, which would be a solid mark.

#21 NET Rank going into the week, which seeds us by chalk as a #6 in the Dance.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
PVAM won by 14.

Jumped them from 203 to 191 NET. Gives some hope that they can win enough in the SWAC to maybe get to that Top 160 and turn our win into a Quad 3.

Tuesday, January 21, games we care about:

Kansas hosts Kansas State (5pm MT, ESPN2).
Clemson hosts Wake Forest (6pm MT, ACCN).
Wyoming at San Diego State (9pm MT, CBSSN). -- pretty much a no-hoper here
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
crazy to see csu as a Quad 2
Yeah. They're playing a lot better since conference play started. Other than SDSU, they're right there for any other MWC games and big favorites against the bottom of the league. Definitely helps that it was a road win for us, too. If we'd played them at home it would have been a Q3 game and not worth much on the resume.
 

ahoelsken

Well-Known Member
PVAM won by 14.

Jumped them from 203 to 191 NET. Gives some hope that they can win enough in the SWAC to maybe get to that Top 160 and turn our win into a Quad 3.

Tuesday, January 21, games we care about:

Kansas hosts Kansas State (5pm MT, ESPN2).
Clemson hosts Wake Forest (6pm MT, ACCN).
Wyoming at San Diego State (9pm MT, CBSSN). -- pretty much a no-hoper here
We need Clemson to do as much damage in the ACC as possible. That game has a shot to become a Q1 NET win.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
We need Clemson to do as much damage in the ACC as possible. That game has a shot to become a Q1 NET win.
Lots of opportunities in the ACC this year for a team that just plays consistently smart and hard. Not the typical ACC of recent years where UNC and Duke each have at least 3 first round picks and UVA has 1 or 2 with a veteran, well-oiled machine. Louisville looks like they're back to being a contender, FSU might be and I'm starting to like NC State -- but feel like Cuse, Pitt, Wake, Miami and Notre Dame are down without having any surprise risers from the other ACC teams. So, yeah, Clemson has an opportunity to be that surprise riser and get itself as a Quad 1 that will be on the Bubble for the Dance. Fingers crossed.
 

SewallBeach

Not Built Like an Action Figure
Club Member
This seems like a good place for this. It was shared with me on twitter. (I believe it's a subscription service, so mods feel free to remove if needed). I don't pretend to fully understand the data but some of it seems to line up with my thinking (i.e. below average ATO, poor-average OOB plays) while some of it shocks me (i.e. half court offense - good against the zone and very good against man). Transition seems to be a big issue. Mostly just thought it was interesting and wanted to see what those smarter than me made of it.

1579647998313.png

Source: @TerpsHInsider on twitter via Synergy Sports Technology
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
This seems like a good place for this. It was shared with me on twitter. (I believe it's a subscription service, so mods feel free to remove if needed). I don't pretend to fully understand the data but some of it seems to line up with my thinking (i.e. below average ATO, poor-average OOB plays) while some of it shocks me (i.e. half court offense - good against the zone and very good against man). Transition seems to be a big issue. Mostly just thought it was interesting and wanted to see what those smarter than me made of it.

View attachment 33540

Source: @TerpsHInsider on twitter via Synergy Sports Technology
Cool. Thanks for posting. That’s the type of info the coaches work from when they game plan off analytics. They also break that data down by individual player. 👍
 

torerobuff

Dancing is forbidden
Club Member
This seems like a good place for this. It was shared with me on twitter. (I believe it's a subscription service, so mods feel free to remove if needed). I don't pretend to fully understand the data but some of it seems to line up with my thinking (i.e. below average ATO, poor-average OOB plays) while some of it shocks me (i.e. half court offense - good against the zone and very good against man). Transition seems to be a big issue. Mostly just thought it was interesting and wanted to see what those smarter than me made of it.

View attachment 33540

Source: @TerpsHInsider on twitter via Synergy Sports Technology
I’m one of the biggest Tad fans on the board, and I think his out of bounds plays suck. I think our statistical issues in transition is a result of opposing scouting reports. Generally, we are very very good rebounding the basketball, so teams don’t even bother attacking the offensive glass. Most of our losses this year is the result of not controlling the glass.
 

SewallBeach

Not Built Like an Action Figure
Club Member
I’m one of the biggest Tad fans on the board, and I think his out of bounds plays suck. I think our statistical issues in transition is a result of opposing scouting reports. Generally, we are very very good rebounding the basketball, so teams don’t even bother attacking the offensive glass. Most of our losses this year is the result of not controlling the glass.
Agreed. As a Celtics fan (I know, **** me), the difference between Brad and Tad ATO certainly stands out.
 
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ahoelsken

Well-Known Member
Lots of opportunities in the ACC this year for a team that just plays consistently smart and hard. Not the typical ACC of recent years where UNC and Duke each have at least 3 first round picks and UVA has 1 or 2 with a veteran, well-oiled machine. Louisville looks like they're back to being a contender, FSU might be and I'm starting to like NC State -- but feel like Cuse, Pitt, Wake, Miami and Notre Dame are down without having any surprise risers from the other ACC teams. So, yeah, Clemson has an opportunity to be that surprise riser and get itself as a Quad 1 that will be on the Bubble for the Dance. Fingers crossed.
UNC has work to do to get in this year-aren't they .500 ish?
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
Kansas rolled over KSU. Expect them to be very short-handed for the B12-SEC challenge game vs Tennessee this weekend, though.
Clemson took down Wake, recovering from a slow start. Maybe they're pretty good?
Wyoming did the expected and got abused by SDSU.

Wednesday, Jan 22, games we care about:

#7 Dayton hosts a good St. Bonaventure team that's in 2nd place in the A-10. (5pm, CBSSN)
Northern Iowa is at Southern Illinois. Should win, but conference road games are always tricky. (7pm, ESPN+)
CSU hosts Fresno State in what should be a win against a bad team. (7pm, ESPN3)
UC Irvine is at Long Beach State. Another "should win" but on the road. (8pm, ESPN3)
 

martini-time

Well-Known Member
Poll Tracker is the best site I have found for viewing NET. Updated daily and does a nice job of breaking down the schedule into color-coated Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4.


I also, like their AP top 25 grid showing the breakdown by voters. One voter had CU at #12 this week (might have read that Zona score wrong b/c he didn't have them ranked haha).

 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
Yesterday:
Dayton crushed the Bonnies.
CSU rolled over Fresno State.
But... Northern Iowa took at bad loss at S Illinois and UCI took an even worse loss at Long Beach State.

Thursday, Jan 23, games we care about:

Our mighty Buffaloes host Wazzu. (8pm, PACN)
Washington at Utah. (6pm, PACN). We probably want Utah to win since we play them twice & their NET rank impacts us more.
Sacramento State hosts Portland State. (8pm). Pretty even game, but one Sac St has to win at home in the Big Sky to have a good season.
USC at Oregon. (9pm, ESPNU). Giant Meteor is the rooting interest in this one.
UCLA at Oregon State. (9pm, FS1). We probably want OSU in this one so that doesn't become a bad loss on our record.
 

ahoelsken

Well-Known Member
Wilner has the Buffs as not rated.
I question whether he actually watches basketball from looking at his ballot-Rutgers at 18 (the only win that stands out on their resume is over Seton Hall-who he has at 14), San Diego State at 9 (too low), and Northern Iowa/Michigan (who aren't ranked in the poll) in his top 20. I still put a lot more stock in the bracket projections than anything. I'm sure if that UConn team who won the title as a 7 seed in 2014 IIRC was ever ranked.
 

manhattanbuf

Club Member
Club Member
I question whether he actually watches basketball from looking at his ballot-Rutgers at 18 (the only win that stands out on their resume is over Seton Hall-who he has at 14), San Diego State at 9 (too low), and Northern Iowa/Michigan (who aren't ranked in the poll) in his top 20. I still put a lot more stock in the bracket projections than anything. I'm sure if that UConn team who won the title as a 7 seed in 2014 IIRC was ever ranked.
Fair enough. Just went through the various ranks by team. That stood out to me.
 

SkoBuff4344

Well-Known Member
Thursday, Jan 23, games we care about:

Our mighty Buffaloes host Wazzu. (8pm, PACN)
Washington at Utah. (6pm, PACN). We probably want Utah to win since we play them twice & their NET rank impacts us more.
Sacramento State hosts Portland State. (8pm). Pretty even game, but one Sac St has to win at home in the Big Sky to have a good season.
USC at Oregon. (9pm, ESPNU). Giant Meteor is the rooting interest in this one.
UCLA at Oregon State. (9pm, FS1). We probably want OSU in this one so that doesn't become a bad loss on our record.
Loving these net posts, and updates.. was torn watching that utah/ washington game. I rooted for wash, thinking they’d be satisfied with one win on the mountain road trip. But I like your take on playing them the Utes twice!

Been rooting for meteor and earthquakes for several years myself, still someone always ends up winning. I think rooting for oregon was the right call as a top tier Quad 1 win will look good for us. I don’t think USC is anything more than the fourth best team in the league. But for the conference championship, would have been pumped if the ducks blew it
 

tante

Club Member
Club Member
Oregon State is turning into a bad loss. They are 2-5 in conference. With wins against us and Arizona (2 of the 3 top 25 teams in conference). They have played quite a bit on the road, so hopefully they can put together a win streak at the second half of conference play.
 
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