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Pac 12 Losing USC and UCLA - "Everybody talking out of their ass"

CULifer

Well-Known Member
The end result is some sort of consolidation between the Pac-10 and Big 12... isn't it?
For what? Power?
It wouldn't be for more money per school, even with a fat overall check for the conference and little more bargaining with TV suitors.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
Larry Scott apologist twist isn’t a direction I expected this thread to go.
Not knowing the value of the asset is on Larry.

Not understanding the way 100% ownership would cripple distribution leverage as an a la carte network instead of part of a bundle is on Larry.

Not being innovative and aggressive on apps and other digital media opportunities is on Larry.

Not having any fiscal responsibility with the money spent on studios and conference offices for no ROI is on Larry.

Etc.

The only thing I give him a pass for is where he listened to his bosses as they rejected conference expansion proposals and also with how, to them, PACN was about making sure all sports from the "Conference of Champions" got televised instead of it being about maximizing the value of the asset so he followed orders. Even then, though, it's on Larry that he was happy to pad his bank account as a political yes man instead of being the expert & leader he was hired to be who would pull the presidents & chancellors on the right business path.
 

manhattanbuff

Club Member
Club Member
It was a long time ago, but I recounted a convo I had with a DirecTV muckity muck at a social gathering when all of this was in play.

In a nutshell, DirecTV had no in interest in the P12 network at all. They viewed it as a regional product, at best, and were seeking to not only have national products to offer, but really wanted to tap the SA and Asia markets. Thus, the P12Network simply wasn't on their shopping list, and any overtures from the P12 were met with a "if you will sell it at a huge discount, fine" response.

Larry the cable guy simply overestimated the appeal. He should have partnered with a network. He had the Hobson's choice of blowing up other deals to get in with DirecTV or keeping the $ already negotiated. The biggest problem was the product.
The product your acquaintance was referring to was the amateur olympic/country club sports they broadcast. At the time, the P12 had top notch football and basketball. It’s just that Larry Scott thought the league should’ve gotten top dollar for blasting water polo and golf 24/7.
 

ahoelsken

Club Member
Club Member

Dodd's latest-several takeaways from this. One, the Big 10 has supposedly cooled on taking UO/UW/Stanford/Cal. No way this isn't good news for us. He says the vote last summer against expansion was 8-4. What do you want to bet CU/UT/ASU/UA were the four who backed expansion? Dodd also expects ESPN and the Pac 12 to keep talking after Thursday. If they can't keep at least some of the Big 10's rights, the tier 2 power leagues all the sudden become that much more important for Disney.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
Based on K's comments at media day, I think the Hail Mary is to see if there's a way to get UCLA to stay. I think the odds of pulling that off are incredibly slim, but I'd bet that losing USC + Stanford (or Oregon) as an example would be far less harmful to the PAC's media deal since we would lose premiere brands still but would not lose home markets due to having another team in those markets. In fact, adding SDSU, UNLV, FSU or SMU (or poaching Big 12) to maintain a 12-team conference or go to 14 or 16 could result in as much or more money than if we hadn't lost teams. UCLA is very much a fulcrum on Pac media value. Maybe we get lucky and the UC Regents/ CA legislature forces UCLA & Cal to split their aggregate media $s and UCLA decides it's not worth leaving. Game changer if that unexpectedly happens.
 

241Volcanos

Well-Known Member
Based on K's comments at media day, I think the Hail Mary is to see if there's a way to get UCLA to stay. I think the odds of pulling that off are incredibly slim, but I'd bet that losing USC + Stanford (or Oregon) as an example would be far less harmful to the PAC's media deal since we would lose premiere brands still but would not lose home markets due to having another team in those markets. In fact, adding SDSU, UNLV, FSU or SMU (or poaching Big 12) to maintain a 12-team conference or go to 14 or 16 could result in as much or more money than if we hadn't lost teams. UCLA is very much a fulcrum on Pac media value. Maybe we get lucky and the UC Regents/ CA legislature forces UCLA & Cal to split their aggregate media $s and UCLA decides it's not worth leaving. Game changer if that unexpectedly happens.
The not so hail mary is there are 2 power leagues and more than 2 media companies that want college football.
 

BerkeleyBuff

Well-Known Member
Chris Hill was a great AD and is a smart operator. Opinion from someone I'd give credence to since he knows what he's talking about.


Hot Off The Hotline ...​

Former athletic director Chris Hill, who oversaw the Utes' jump to the Pac-12, believes the financial benefits of switching leagues is limited.
Honestly my biggest takeaway from that was the admission that the Big XII teams will likely earn more. Quite the change of tune for Wilner.
 

SBP

Club Member
Club Member
Chris Hill was a great AD and is a smart operator. Opinion from someone I'd give credence to since he knows what he's talking about.


Hot Off The Hotline ...​

Former athletic director Chris Hill, who oversaw the Utes' jump to the Pac-12, believes the financial benefits of switching leagues is limited.
He is accustomed to the Mountain West. It is all gravy for him.
 

InTheBuff

Club Member
Club Member
Big Ten’s interest has not “cooled” on Oregon, Washington & Stanford.

This is about timing.

Notre Dame is setting the clock.

Irish have until August 15th, 2023 to inform ACC they are taking all their sports out of the conference in time to join Big Ten by July 1st, 2024.

This is from Twitter..Flugar guy in Minnesota
Tweet
 

ahoelsken

Club Member
Club Member
Big Ten’s interest has not “cooled” on Oregon, Washington & Stanford.

This is about timing.

Notre Dame is setting the clock.

Irish have until August 15th, 2023 to inform ACC they are taking all their sports out of the conference in time to join Big Ten by July 1st, 2024.

This is from Twitter..Flugar guy in Minnesota
Tweet
The PNW schools aren't going anywhere until Notre Dame does.
 

ahoelsken

Club Member
Club Member
If some or all of the 4C schools go to B12, I think B1G picks up some P12 leftovers at a discount (but still more than they would have earned in P12)
By leftovers.....I'm assuming you mean WSU/OSU?

I think the only defection the conference might survive is CU.
 

ahoelsken

Club Member
Club Member
UDub, UO, Cal, Stanford.
UW/UO are the only two of the four you named who I think would take B12 invites. I don't see the administrations at Stanford and Cal going for that-I think them working an arrangement out with say the WCC for their non-rev stuff while going indy in football is a lot more likely than either of them joining the Big 12.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
UW/UO are the only two of the four you named who I think would take B12 invites. I don't see the administrations at Stanford and Cal going for that-I think them working an arrangement out with say the WCC for their non-rev stuff while going indy in football is a lot more likely than either of them joining the Big 12.
I don't think that's true of Cal.
 

PAC MAN

CU in 2023
Club Member
Right now I think we just have to wait until the B1G announces their new media rights deal and by that time, they would know if they are going to add more schools or wait until the next media rights deal before expanding again.

Wilner can argue numbers in favor of the Pac-12 but we CU fans know which conference is more passionate about football & basketball.
 

PAC MAN

CU in 2023
Club Member
UW/UO are the only two of the four you named who I think would take B12 invites. I don't see the administrations at Stanford and Cal going for that-I think them working an arrangement out with say the WCC for their non-rev stuff while going indy in football is a lot more likely than either of them joining the Big 12.

I don't see Stanford & Cal going to the WCC for their non football sports. The WCC has private small schools and a good number of them are connected to a church denomination or had a connection in the past. Big West would be a better fit even if the quality of athletic teams might not be better than the WCC.
 

ahoelsken

Club Member
Club Member
Right now I think we just have to wait until the B1G announces their new media rights deal and by that time, they would know if they are going to add more schools or wait until the next media rights deal before expanding again.

Wilner can argue numbers in favor of the Pac-12 but we CU fans know which conference is more passionate about football & basketball.
Wilner is biased. So is Canzano. Adam's been a role model for a lot of media during this in my view. He'll freely admit that he'd prefer the Big 12, but thinks the school would prefer to stay in the Pac. He's done a really good job keeping his own views out of the reporting he's done since 6/30. Same can't be said for Jason Scheer. We are very lucky to have him running buffstampede.
I don't think that's true of Cal.
Nik-I'd love to hear you elaborate on this........I'm probably really biased about them in particular-but it just doesn't seem like they're that interested in their athletics, which is weird given how much debt they're in.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
Wilner is biased. So is Canzano. Adam's been a role model for a lot of media during this in my view. He'll freely admit that he'd prefer the Big 12, but thinks the school would prefer to stay in the Pac. He's done a really good job keeping his own views out of the reporting he's done since 6/30. Same can't be said for Jason Scheer. We are very lucky to have him running buffstampede.

Nik-I'd love to hear you elaborate on this........I'm probably really biased about them in particular-but it just doesn't seem like they're that interested in their athletics, which is weird given how much debt they're in.
I think that there's a big difference between inviting someone into your group vs finding a home while having limited options.

Also, Cal athletics is facing major budget issues. I think that forces compromises that wouldn't be made without financial pressure.
 

hawg1

Well-Known Member
UW/UO are the only two of the four you named who I think would take B12 invites. I don't see the administrations at Stanford and Cal going for that-I think them working an arrangement out with say the WCC for their non-rev stuff while going indy in football is a lot more likely than either of them joining the Big 12.
Start over. 4C goes to B12. B1G picks up UDub, UO, Stanford and Cal for a discount (still more money than P12)
 

PAC MAN

CU in 2023
Club Member
I think that there's a big difference between inviting someone into your group vs finding a home while having limited options.

Also, Cal athletics is facing major budget issues. I think that forces compromises that wouldn't be made without financial pressure.

There's always a chance the state steps in and covers the costs related to the stadium retrofit while Cal would still be on the hook for the suites & training center. Not sure how the costs break down in that case but I'm guessing the retrofit alone would be about $250M.
 

ahoelsken

Club Member
Club Member
I don't see Stanford & Cal going to the WCC for their non football sports. The WCC has private small schools and a good number of them are connected to a church denomination or had a connection in the past. Big West would be a better fit even if the quality of athletic teams might not be better than the WCC.
My source on this is their wiki page, but all 9 schools who will be left in that league after BYU joins the B12 do have religious affiliations. To me, it works because that league doesn't play football. Not only that, but they both compete in sports the Mountain Pacific Sports Federation offers. That might be an easier pill for Cal/Stanford admins to swallow because the MWC would likely want them in football too.
 

BuffinCali

Club Member
Club Member
I see UO, UW and Stanford bolting with ND to the Big 10, leaving CU to play powerhouse schools like SDSU, Fresno and UNLV. The PAC is dead, not leaving for slightly better Big 12 competition would be a monumental mistake. If those three schools leave the PAC, the PAC is the MWC - at best.
 
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