2-0: How we got here (aka, stats to know)

[Duff Man]

1. A big play passing offense. Connor Wood currently sits at #24 in the country averaging 9.0 yards per attempt.

2. Exceptional third down defense. The Buffs are currently 4th in the country in third down defense at 24%.

3. Forcing turnovers. Despite playing one less game, the Buffs are tied for 24th in the country with six takeaways.


Stat to watch: Red zone offense. The Buffs have scored on all four red zone opportunities this year. But three of those scores were field goals. If the big play is shut down, can the offense grind out drives and score touchdowns in the red zone?

 

[Buffnik]

Good stuff, Duff. 3 of my favorite stats, although I prefer turnover differential. When I can find it, I also like the explosive plays stats (plays of 20+ yards for & against).

 

[sackman]

Third down defense is a big deal. I definitely like what we are doing there, although I'm concerned about what it will be like once we start playing some better teams.

 

[Duff Man]

Good stuff, Duff. 3 of my favorite stats, although I prefer turnover differential. When I can find it, I also like the explosive plays stats (plays of 20+ yards for & against).

Am I wrong in thinking turnover differential only says a lot at the extremes? With teams passing 40+ times a game, doesn't it say a lot more about your defense if they can't force turnovers versus your QB tossing an INT?

 

[MtnBuff]

Am I wrong in thinking turnover differential only says a lot at the extremes? With teams passing 40+ times a game, doesn't it say a lot more about your defense if they can't force turnovers versus your QB tossing an INT?

You aren't wrong at all. With teams passing the ball all over the place turnovers are much more critical than ever. Used to be when teams were trying to pound the ball you could win with bend but don't break. Give up some yardage and first downs but last long enough for the opponents drive to die. With the way teams pass the ball now virtually every play can go to the house.

To win you have to get the other team off the field before they can make a big play on you. You also take away the punt which makes huge differences in the field position game.

All three of the stats in the OP are huge and aren't coicidental to our winning games. I think your post also illustrates that M2 is creating an identity with this team. In the last few years how many stats could you point to that said this is who we are and how we win. It also highlights the fact that we are building something here but there is space for quality recruits to come in and make contributions right away.

How much is all those deep passes creating gaps in the middle that a quality TE could take huge advantage of. How much room is there in the offense, especially the red zone offense for an above average RB to stand out.

 

[Buffnik]

Am I wrong in thinking turnover differential only says a lot at the extremes? With teams passing 40+ times a game, doesn't it say a lot more about your defense if they can't force turnovers versus your QB tossing an INT?

I think it's both. I mean, if CU forced 3 turnovers over the course of a season while committing 1 then it would generally be a non-factor.

Let's draw the comparison to the advanced metrics in basketball.

Basically, what it comes down to is how many possessions you get versus your opponent, what you do on your possessions, and what you hold them to on their possessions. Not rocket science, obviously.

In football, possession is going to change if a team scores, is stopped, or turns the ball over.

So you can pretty much break football down into a few categories:

1) Offensive efficiency (points per possession)
2) Defensive efficiency (points given up per possession)
3) Possessions (+/-)

Football is a lot more complex than basketball, but it seems to be what drives each of them the strongest is:

1) Explosive plays
2) 3rd down defense
3) Turnover differential

Guys like Urban Meyer and Chip Kelley have made a study of this. It's what they coach to. I'm a very happy man right now, because it seems that this is also where Mike MacIntyre puts his emphasis.

 

[jahbrahakala]

Explosive plays have been highly correlated with W‘s.

Which, by the way CU‘s D is #20 with defending explosive plays as well.

Also, the two teams CU defeated are CSU & Centrak Arkansas, a stat that bears remembering. I think the Beavers are pretty explosive as well.

 

[BuffNut99]

It helps when you cut your rushing yards per attempt against from 5.27 to 2.85.

 

[Denver_sc]

It helps when you cut your rushing yards per attempt against from 5.27 to 2.85.

Gashers.

 

[Fight CU]

Explosive plays have been highly correlated with W‘s.

Which, by the way CU‘s D is #20 with defending explosive plays as well.

Also, the two teams CU defeated are CSU & Centrak Arkansas, a stat that bears remembering. I think the Beavers are pretty explosive as well.

kinky.

 

[AKfan]

Third down defense is a big deal. I definitely like what we are doing there, although I'm concerned about what it will be like once we start playing some better teams.

Last year I was happy when they forced a third down. Actually stopping someone on third down is crazy.

 

[sackman]

Last year I was happy when they forced a third down. Actually stopping someone on third down is crazy.

I'll never forget Embree's first year when CU travelled to play Stanford and Andrew Luck. CU would regularly put them in 3rd and 10+, only to have Andrew Luck find a wide open slot receiver or tight end 20 yards downfield for an easy first down.

 

[NashBuff]

1. A big play passing offense. Connor Wood currently sits at #24 in the country averaging 9.0 yards per attempt.

2. Exceptional third down defense. The Buffs are currently 4th in the country in third down defense at 24%.

3. Forcing turnovers. Despite playing one less game, the Buffs are tied for 24th in the country with six takeaways.


Stat to watch: Red zone offense. The Buffs have scored on all four red zone opportunities this year. But three of those scores were field goals. If the big play is shut down, can the offense grind out drives and score touchdowns in the red zone?

1. That 9.0 YPA should open up the rushing lanes...so far it doesn't appear to be the case and that is something CU needs to work on the rest of this season.
2. If the defense gets off the field, that means our offense gets back on the field to score more points. If not, field position becomes very important.
3. Same as #2...if the defense isn't getting off the field, nothing good has happened for CU in that department.

That Red Zone offense is a concern...that tells me that CU isn't able to punch it in which appears to have been a problem during the Hawkins and Embree regimes...perhaps you could contribute that to the OL.

Having said all of that, I'm still thrilled with how CU has started the season and hopefully the Buffs will at least get to a bowl game this season.

 

[Darth Snow]

That turnover rate is not sustainable. We will need to win some games with sustained offensive drives. Obviously, red zone offense will play a big role in this.

 

[BuffNut99]

Wow, we gave up 8 yards per first down on D last season. There just isn't enough alcohol in the world to cope with that. We've practically cut it in half through two games in 2013.