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538 predictions for CU (11.21.16)

Alfred91 said:
Ummmmm, 538 didn't do so well in the Presidential prognostications.

Jus' sayin'.
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they were far less wrong than pretty much every other major poll pundit. only a few of the minor leaguers forecast trump correctly.

besides, i am ready to believe! GO BUFFS.
 
Liver said:
they were far less wrong than pretty much every other major poll pundit. only a few of the minor leaguers forecast trump correctly.

besides, i am ready to believe! GO BUFFS.
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Yeah - I didn't mean to inject politics into this board, anyway.

Go Team Nate!
 
As their probabilities are affected by the CFP rankings, we should get a slight bump when we likely move ahead of Louisville in tomorrow's rankings.
 
Darth Snow said:
Probability is a bitch
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Chances are just that, chances. It's why sometimes you win big in Vegas, but mostly go home empty handed even if the long term odds are against you. People will never quite get it.

That said a 48% chance into the CFP is unreal. No one saw the probability being greater than 0 at this point.
 
SBG said:
Chances are just that, chances. It's why sometimes you win big in Vegas, but mostly go home empty handed even if the long term odds are against you. People will never quite get it.

That said a 48% chance into the CFP is unreal. No one saw the probability being greater than 0 at this point.
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Yep. I love 48% with a week left in the regular season. Factoring in the uncertainty of the committee and the probabilities of how other teams will fare, it's a coin flip on whether CU makes the playoff if the Buffs win out. That seems about right to me. Maybe even slanted more in our favor than I would have expected. Is anyone feeling differently and would expect our odds to be significantly better than that?
 
It's actually 35% if things happen the way they likely will. Which is why we need Okie Lite to step up. Them winning boosts our probability to 54%.
 

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I am just stunned and happy with this year and our inclusion in the conversation. More positive pub for CU this season than in the last 10 years combined. I love the odds of a coin flip to get into the Playoff. There just is no other answer for a CU fan when you think about where we thought we were at the beginning of the season
 
Buffnik said:
Yep. I love 48% with a week left in the regular season. Factoring in the uncertainty of the committee and the probabilities of how other teams will fare, it's a coin flip on whether CU makes the playoff if the Buffs win out. That seems about right to me. Maybe even slanted more in our favor than I would have expected. Is anyone feeling differently and would expect our odds to be significantly better than that?
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After predicting 5 wins to start the season I'm still in awe that we are in this position.

With that said, take care of business on the field. Control what we can control and let the chips fall where they may. Shoulder to shoulder.
 
Unleash Hell said:
Only a 33% chance of beating a team we already beat by two TDs?
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No. A 33% chance of winning both the Utah game and the P12CG which is a combination of probabilities against UW/WSU. The individual probability for the P12CG is 43% and is weighted more heavily towards playing UW.
 
Picking likely events through win out and it won't allow me to select either CU or UW winning the Pac-12 CCG.
 
zbuff said:
Picking likely events through win out and it won't allow me to select either CU or UW winning the Pac-12 CCG.
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Win out means win out until the playoff/bowl season. So for us that includes the CCG but for a team like Ohio State it includes both scenarios where they beat Michigan and don't play in the B10CG as well as scenarios where they beat Michigan and play in the B10CG.
 
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