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A quick look forward at Pac12 basketball in 2014-15 Personnel losses

absinthe

absinthe

Ambitious but rubbish.
Club Member
Junta Member
The NBA draft thread got us talkign about this but i thought it was worth breaking out. Craig Robinson at the moment still has a Job Ken bone doesnt but in both of those cases losing the coach cant make them worse. Johnny Dawkins has "saved" his job but is losing a huge component of his team. So far we Know:

UCLA is losing: Anderson, The Wear Twins, Zack Lavine.

Furd is graduating: Brown, Powell, Hustis, Gauge and Bright - three of their top 4 in: Points, minutes, rebounds and assists. Randle and Nastic come back of their contributors.

Wazzu Loses DJ Shelton who was essentially #2 on the team in every statistical category save rebounding where he lead the team.

Utah - returns everyone including Delon Wright who passed on the draft.

Colorado - Dinwiddie dinwiddie dinwiddie (my gut is he goes lets assume so for this thread).

Washington loses all-everything guard CJ Wilcox as well as leading rebounder Perris Blackwell. (update and 2nd leading rebounder Desmond Simmons)

Oregon Loses major contributors: Loyd, Moser, Calliste - but should have Artis and Carter for full seasons this time round.

OSU loses there 2 best player in Devon Collier and Roberto nelson

CAL loses team leaders in Solomon and Justin Cobbs but should get more from Jabri Bird next year.

USC loses their two 7 footers

Arizona - remains to be seen

ASU - loses Jahii and Bachinsky.
 
Looking at that you have to expect: Furd, UCLA, OSU, and ASU to take large steps backward next year. Utah looks to be the team that will make the largest forward progression.
 
Pac 12 won't be as strong next year.

UCLA is losing a ton (Lavine, Anderson, Wear twins and possibly Adams), and you can't replace a guy as unique as Anderson, and I'm happy we won't have to face the Wear twins anymore, I swear those guys always shot 85% against us. Isaac Hamilton is eligible, and they are bringing in some good recruits. We need to beat them eventually, right? Next year could be the year.

Stanford will definitely take a step back without all their post guys (Huestis was their Roberson) and Randle might go pro, ditto for Cal without Solomon (rebounder and post defender) and Cobbs (leader).

Zona will lose Aaron Gordon and maybe Nick Johnson as well. Both guys are so important for that defense and leadership. Gordon is so versatile that he makes that defense absolutely deadly with his length and athleticism and ability to guard anyone. McConnell will still be there and Stanley JOhnson will be really good, so they will be the team to beat again.

ASU is losing their best post player and electric PG and will take a huge step down.

Washington will miss Wilcox's lights out shooting.

Wash State is starting over.

USC is bringing in some talent and should be better.

Utah returns everyone and brings in some talent. They will be dangerous as long as Delon Wright is healthy.

Oregon State is losing its best post players and best guard.

Oregon will lose its best shooter (Calliste) and post guy (Moser), but you know they will bring in a few rentals.



The Buffs return everyone minus Dinwiddie (assuming he is gone), so we have a chance to finish top four again.
 
I'm extremely high on our prospects for next year. Collier will open up the floor, and an article on Rivals just said that Miller is up to 6'9, 250 (a true bruiser, will open up scoring for Scott).

Scott and XJ as Juniors, Ski as a senior, maybe Dinwiddie returning. Our 5 freshman from this year will be experienced sophomores, and Collier is already experienced against high level competition at the point. That's a veteran and formidable team right there. A top-3 finish is definitely in the discussion.
 
BuffTE41 said:
I'm extremely high on our prospects for next year. Collier will open up the floor, and an article on Rivals just said that Miller is up to 6'9, 250 (a true bruiser, will open up scoring for Scott).

Scott and XJ as Juniors, Ski as a senior, maybe Dinwiddie returning. Our 5 freshman from this year will be experienced sophomores, and Collier is already experienced against high level competition at the point. That's a veteran and formidable team right there. A top-3 finish is definitely the expectation.
Click to expand...
FIFY
 
BuffTE41 said:
I'm extremely high on our prospects for next year. Collier will open up the floor, and an article on Rivals just said that Miller is up to 6'9, 250 (a true bruiser, will open up scoring for Scott).

Scott and XJ as Juniors, Ski as a senior, maybe Dinwiddie returning. Our 5 freshman from this year will be experienced sophomores, and Collier is already experienced against high level competition at the point. That's a veteran and formidable team right there. A top-3 finish is definitely in the discussion.
Click to expand...
As Fight said, a top 3 finish should be the expectation
 
absinthe said:
The NBA draft thread got us talkign about this but i thought it was worth breaking out. Craig Robinson at the moment still has a Job Ken bone doesnt but in both of those cases losing the coach cant make them worse. Johnny Dawkins has "saved" his job but is losing a huge component of his team. So far we Know:

UCLA is losing: Anderson, The Wear Twins, Zack Lavine - and in all likelihood Jordan Adams.

Furd is graduating: Brown, Powell, Hustis, Gauge and Bright - three of their top 4 in: Points, minutes, rebounds and assists. Randle and Nastic come back of their contributors.

Wazzu Loses DJ Shelton who was essentially #2 on the team in every statistical category save rebounding where he lead the team.

Utah - returns everyone including Delon Wright who passed on the draft.

Colorado - Dinwiddie dinwiddie dinwiddie (my gut is he goes lets assume so for this thread).

Washington loses all-everything guard CJ Wilcox as well as leading rebounder Perris Blackwell.

Oregon Loses major contributors: Loyd, Moser, Calliste - but should have Artis and Carter for full seasons this time round.

OSU loses there 2 best player in Devon Collier and Roberto nelson

CAL loses team leaders in Solomon and Justin Cobbs but should get more from Jabri Bird next year.

USC loses their two 7 footers

Arizona - remains to be seen

ASU - loses Jahii and Bachinsky.
Click to expand...

ASU loses a lot more than that. They also lose Marshall and McCissick. Basically, the only guy they have returning is Gilling. They might go 0-18 in conference...and ASU fans here in Phoenix know it.
 
'Tini said:
As Fight said, a top 3 finish should be the expectation
Click to expand...

I will be extremely disappointed if a top 3 finish is all we get if Dinwiddie comes back. If he does we should be a top 10 team nationally and challenge Arizona for the conference title. We would return EVERYONE from a team that was an Overtime win away from finishing third this year. No excuses.
 
letsgoavs192 said:
I will be extremely disappointed if a top 3 finish is all we get if Dinwiddie comes back. If he does we should be a top 10 team nationally and challenge Arizona for the conference title. We would return EVERYONE from a team that was an Overtime win away from finishing third this year. No excuses.
Click to expand...

If Dinwiddie returns, anything lower than #2 in conference would be a huge let down.
 
letsgoavs192 said:
I will be extremely disappointed if a top 3 finish is all we get if Dinwiddie comes back. If he does we should be a top 10 team nationally and challenge Arizona for the conference title. We would return EVERYONE from a team that was an Overtime win away from finishing third this year. No excuses.
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I expect a top 3 finish w/o Spencer. With Spencer I expect to compete with Arizona for the Pac 12 regular season title
 
J.R. Ewing said:
If Dinwiddie returns, anything lower than #2 in conference would be a huge let down.
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Don't sleep on Oregon they will be very good next year and have a banner class coming in and Altman is a decent coach.
 
I'm starting to get worried that RHJ(Rondae) might leave. If he keeps playing like this in the tournament who knows what will happen to his draft stock. Rumor has it that Nick Johnson is probably leaving. I don't get it but if he gets a first round grade he should take it and leave. In an ideal world this will be our lineup. If Nick does end up coming back and RHJ stays we will be filthy. A deep tourney run can do crazy things though.
Pg- TJ SG- York SF- Stanley PF- Ashley - C Zeus.
 
'Tini said:
Please explain how expecting a top three finish is delusional. I don't care about past ****, how is my expectation this time delusional?
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We were barely a 500 club with out Spencer, the pg coming in hasnt played a game in college, we've never finished better than 11-7 in league play, never better than 5th - statistically speaking to finish top three you need to go ~12-6
 
'Tini said:
Oh so in your mind being a sunshine pumper = delusional. Gotcha.
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Your pumping rises to the level of delusion. You seem to think our guys are always better than they are, improving at some astronomically higher rate then other teams, and every bounce will go our way.
 
'Tini said:
Please explain how expecting a top three finish is delusional. I don't care about past ****, how is my expectation this time delusional?
Click to expand...

Oh, I like this particular expectation. You are just consistently in the top 5%-10% of AllBuffs posters when it comes to optimism. If you keep that up you'll burn out.
 
It's not at all delusional to expect significant improvement from our young players and a top-3 finish. Remember, a guy like Dustin Thomas just turned 18 this summer. Think about how much you mature physically and mentally from year to year in college.

We saw our players improve all year without Spencer. (they beat a Sweet-16 team on their own floor.) It's delusional to irrationally believe the team will somehow remain static or regress. We're adding key components we were missing from this year in a bruiser in miller and distributor in Collier.
 
absinthe said:
Your pumping rises to the level of delusion. You seem to think our guys are always better than they are, improving at some astronomically higher rate then other teams, and every bounce will go our way.
Click to expand...
Why are you acting like your predictions are so great? You predicted that we'd go 1-11 this past year in football, I was at 4-8. You said going 9-4 in the non-conference part of our schedule would be fair and that to win 10 games in the non-conference schedule we'd have to have everything go right for us, I however claimed that we would beat both AF and CSU (got a lot of **** on that one), would sweep the home non-conference slate at home. I predicted going 2-1 against Baylor/KU/OSU, we went 1-2. Before Spencer went down my predictions were not too far off.
 
BuffTE41 said:
(they beat a Sweet-16 team on their own floor.)
Click to expand...

No they beat Stanford on their floor who is eminently beatable at any given time because they are a bunch of soft bitches. People keep talking like this tourney run changed who they were all year, a soft streaky team that when they are feeling it could play - but most of the time they sucked.
 
'Tini said:
Please explain how expecting a top three finish is delusional. I don't care about past ****, how is my expectation this time delusional?
Click to expand...

I think some over your predictions are overly optimistic. But a top 3 finish next year would not be one of them. Standford, UCLA, and ASU will be down next year most likely. I think the 4 best teams are AZ, CU, Utah, and Oregon with AZ being 1 being the only sure thing of those 4.
 
absinthe said:
No they beat Stanford on their floor who is eminently beatable at any given time because they are a bunch of soft bitches. People keep talking like this tourney run changed who they were all year, a soft streaky team that when they are feeling it could play - but most of the time they sucked.
Click to expand...

They beat a Sweet-16 team on their own floor. That's objectively non-debateable, it's simply what happened.

You're being a real downer. As usual it's all doom and gloom on the CU boards. How is it hard to not see 25-26 win team next year when we were well on our way to that before Dinwiddie got hurt? You expect CU to stay the same or regress?
 
'Tini said:
Why are you acting like your predictions are so great? You predicted that we'd go 1-11 this past year in football, I was at 4-8. You said going 9-4 in the non-conference part of our schedule would be fair and that to win 10 games in the non-conference schedule we'd have to have everything go right for us, I however claimed that we would beat both AF and CSU (got a lot of **** on that one), would sweep the home non-conference slate at home. I predicted going 2-1 against Baylor/KU/OSU, we went 1-2. Before Spencer went down my predictions were not too far off.
Click to expand...

To be fair we only went 4-8 because we replaced Fresno state with CSUjr no way we beat that FSU team.

You didn't claim you thought we'd beat them you lectured like there was no chance we could lose, there is a difference and that permeates all of your posts it is why you get called out so much. As for the non-con I think an argument can be made that every-single bounce, rebound and runner with 3 seconds left went our way in the non-con. For instance we don't win that UCSB game if they have Allan Williams by far their best player and his 21.5/11.5 on the floor.

Edit pulled my Basketball prediction so you guys can critique (this was of course with spencer):


absinthe said:
Non-Conference - 10-3
Conference - 13-5
Finish 3rd in Pac 12 and lose Conference semis to Arizona
Enter NCAAT as a 7 seed and lose in the rnd of 64

could see conf being 12-6 as well, but this is where i am.
Click to expand...

And Tini is right i called 1-11 in a poll cant find that i did any breakout for the games, still his 4-8 is closer to reality even with teh Fresno game being played than my 1-11 was, I must have had a sandy vag that day.
 
absinthe said:
To be fair we only went 4-8 because we replaced Fresno state with CSUjr no way we beat that FSU team.

You didn't claim you thought we'd beat them you lectured like there was no chance we could lose, there is a difference and that permeates all of your posts it is why you get called out so much. As for the non-con I think an argument can be made that every-single bounce, rebound and runner with 3 seconds left went our way in the non-con. For instance we don't win that UCSB game if they have Allan Williams by far their best player and his 21.5/11.5 on the floor.
Click to expand...

So hypothetical events that could have happened but didn't are what you're basing your predictions on?
 
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