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A (way-too) early look at 2016....

BlackNGold

BlackNGold

Club Member
I thought I would take a look at CU's schedule -

Games where CU will be a huge favorite:
Idaho State

Games where CU will be a favorite
Colorado State
Oregon State

Games where CU is not favored but winnable.
Arizona State
Washington State
Utah
Arizona
UCLA ( I only put that here because we seem to do well against the incredibly talented Bruins)

Games that are probably no hope. (double digit dog)

Oregon
Michigan
USC
Stanford

In my mind there are 8 games where we have to manufacture 6 wins. I only see one sure win - Idaho State - but two probable wins in CSU and Oregon State. If we can be 3-0 in those games we have to get 3 more wins out of the slight underdog category. I look for wins over WSU, Utah and Arizona as our best shots.

This assumes that we have adequate QB play. My major concern is the CSU game, an early stumble there would put CU in a hole early and force them to manufacture another win as an underdog.
 
8Jah said:
Downside is scary. Easy to see scenario where we only get two wins.
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the QB situation will sway my opinions on how my preseason prediction leans. With a healthy Sefo or quality transfer QB I could lean towards a 6+ win season. With JG or Montez its going to be closer to 2 wins.
 
So many what if's. Tough schedule, but every year will be tough in the Pac 12, so that doesn't hold much water for me.

If Gillam is healthy and close to his freshman form and Samson plays this year, I really like the make-up of this defense. Gotta find a pass rush, but I think we are adequate enough on D and easily MM's best defense since he has been here.

The QB and Oline positions scare me the most, after that. If we can't get to 6 wins, I think MM can point to these two areas for his undoing. Unfortunately, I have no faith in these two areas until I see it on the field. Unfortunate, as I think this team has some potential stars on D.

Outside shot at 6 wins and my hope is we see a step forward in the QB, oline, and offensive play calling for this to happen.

As we get closer to the season I am sure I will find myself thinking we can get those 6 wins. I still have faith in MM, but this is it for him to prove it.
 
The down side is terrible.

And the upside isn't all that great.

I think the win total will be between 2 and 6. And the over/under line is 4 (maybe 4.5 if I'm being optimistic).

Between the lack of linebackers, and lack of a winning quarterback, I really don't see more than 4 wins.

I suppose Montez could blow up, but I wouldn't bet on it.
 
we need O Line and QB play to improve tremendously to get us those 6 wins and unfortunately those are the two areas where I do not think we made any upgrades since last year.
Our strengths on O are WR and RB
I was an apsay guy and with him gone I think we don't have any one to get the ball to the WRs.
Without the o-line our running backs are going to get hit 3 yards in the backfield
 
Reading all this talk about getting to just 6 wins really bums me out. I remember Rashaan Salaam talking about after the '93 season Mac was livid at them because they only went 8-3-1. He said "boys 8 wins around here is simply not good enough and I will not tolerate it" I miss those expectations. A LOT. I know everyone would be happy with getting to a bowl game but honestly for me I won't be happy until we are in the PAC 12 title game.

Looking at 2016 the only games I see as no chance are Michigan and Stanford. The rest I believe are winnable. Oregon I think is going to take a significant step backward same with ASU. Utah we always play tough and they lost a lot. It really is now or never for MM and this jr, sr dominated team.
 
It all boils down to QB and OL play for me. D will be decent and hopefully improved...it was the O's regression last year that cost us.

I refuse to get hopes up for a bowl game...been down that road far too often with this program.
 
Everyone focused on the QB position but my keys in order of importance (Assuming that Sefo is healthy enough to be effective.)

1. Irwin stays healthy. Jeremy when healthy is far and away our best offensive lineman playing the most important OL position. If he goes out not only do we get much weaker at LT but at the position from which we draw his replacement. I think we have a couple of really good young LTs but neither is ready yet.

2. Gillam stays healthy. We are very thin at LB and Gillam is the only one we have who is a proven consistent playmaker at the position.

3. We figure out who can be an effective and consistent receiver other than Fields. Don't need a big play guy but we need someone who makes the tough catches to move the chains. If we can integrate the TE more effectively it would be huge.

4. Tupou plays like one of the top NGs in the PAC. We are light and inexperienced at the DEs and LB. If Tupou can hold the middle effectively it will take a lot of pressure off those guys.

5. We can finally overcome the Nienas effect and not lose games on special teams. In recent years we have been giving up some huge advantages to opponents due to sub-standard STs play.
 
MtnBuff said:
Everyone focused on the QB position but my keys in order of importance (Assuming that Sefo is healthy enough to be effective.)

1. Irwin stays healthy. Jeremy when healthy is far and away our best offensive lineman playing the most important OL position. If he goes out not only do we get much weaker at LT but at the position from which we draw his replacement. I think we have a couple of really good young LTs but neither is ready yet.

2. Gillam stays healthy. We are very thin at LB and Gillam is the only one we have who is a proven consistent playmaker at the position.

3. We figure out who can be an effective and consistent receiver other than Fields. Don't need a big play guy but we need someone who makes the tough catches to move the chains. If we can integrate the TE more effectively it would be huge.

4. Tupou plays like one of the top NGs in the PAC. We are light and inexperienced at the DEs and LB. If Tupou can hold the middle effectively it will take a lot of pressure off those guys.

5. We can finally overcome the Nienas effect and not lose games on special teams. In recent years we have been giving up some huge advantages to opponents due to sub-standard STs play.
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Irwin has only played 1 yr and he was just OK so I would pump the brakes on how amazing he is.
He needs to get healthy and stay healthy.
We have a well experienced OL with some big bodies. They need better coaching and less rotation.
If we can get Sefo, Gillam and Tupou back this season at full speed we have a chance of winning.
 
badbone63 said:
Irwin has only played 1 yr and he was just OK so I would pump the brakes on how amazing he is.
He needs to get healthy and stay healthy.
We have a well experienced OL with some big bodies. They need better coaching and less rotation.
If we can get Sefo, Gillam and Tupou back this season at full speed we have a chance of winning.
Click to expand...

Irwin has only played one year and no he wasn't all-conference but he was the best OL player we had and easily the best equipped to play LT (although I think in a perfect world he would be a better guard.)

The OL is getting better overall but Irwin's health will have a lot to do with how good we are.
 
MtnBuff said:
Everyone focused on the QB position but my keys in order of importance (Assuming that Sefo is healthy enough to be effective.)

1. Irwin stays healthy. Jeremy when healthy is far and away our best offensive lineman playing the most important OL position. If he goes out not only do we get much weaker at LT but at the position from which we draw his replacement. I think we have a couple of really good young LTs but neither is ready yet.

2. Gillam stays healthy. We are very thin at LB and Gillam is the only one we have who is a proven consistent playmaker at the position.

3. We figure out who can be an effective and consistent receiver other than Fields. Don't need a big play guy but we need someone who makes the tough catches to move the chains. If we can integrate the TE more effectively it would be huge.

4. Tupou plays like one of the top NGs in the PAC. We are light and inexperienced at the DEs and LB. If Tupou can hold the middle effectively it will take a lot of pressure off those guys.

5. We can finally overcome the Nienas effect and not lose games on special teams. In recent years we have been giving up some huge advantages to opponents due to sub-standard STs play.
Click to expand...
The hard part is that even if all five of those things happen, I still think we're looking at 6 wins at most, and at least one of those 5 things won't happen...

We're still in a "need everything to go right" place, rather than a "we can overcome a few problems here and there" place.
 
skibum said:
The hard part is that even if all five of those things happen, I still think we're looking at 6 wins at most, and at least one of those 5 things won't happen...

We're still in a "need everything to go right" place, rather than a "we can overcome a few problems here and there" place.
Click to expand...

I tend to agree with you. Teams don't go through seasons without significant injuries and potential means they haven't done it yet.

The hope though is that at least one or two individuals or team accomplishments surprise and make up for it. One of the linebackers jumps up and becomes a factor, a DE or OLB becomes a difference making pass rusher, a couple of young O-linemen step up and dominate. Until it happens though these are just hopes and if they don't happen we will be home again in bowl season.

At least we are not to a point where if things do go right we have reason to believe we can win.
 
I have to agree with BnG and the original post as to the grouping of the games. Must wins in CSU, Idaho St and Oregon St. No way round it and MM has to find a way to change the trend of his teams not playing well in the first game of the year. The Buffs have to come out ready, not play flat and look sharp in the RMS.

The second group provides the opportunity to get to a bowl game. All home games and teams we should be able to hang with. UCLA is the home game that will provide the biggest challenge but the Buffs have played them tough the last couple of years. If things break right, the team should be playing Utah for a better bowl bid instead of just trying to qualify for a bowl. If we get improvement on the oline and run the ball with consistency, all of the home games should be within reach.

The road games are always tough and Michigan and Oregon will be huge early tests that should tell much about improved this team is. We will be double digit underdogs in both and probably for USC and Stanford as well (I will be in Palo Alto for this game). These games all provide the Buffs the chance to make a statement and get a huge win to build off of. Most likely will not happen but somewhere deep inside I believe we pull and upset in one of these this year.

Arizona is the one road game where I think we have our best chance to get a road win. I just hope we are on track to that point with 5 wins before we go on the road to Tucson. I do not want to have to win the last 2 to get to 6 wins but that is the most likely scenario.

Bottom line, MM has to have this team ready to go on Sept 2 and take care of business in game 1 and beat the Rams. This is the most important game in his time at CU and he has to have the team ready to go and not repeat the first game blunders of the last 2 years.
 
If the defense can have another improvement like it had last year, and the offense and special teams show even slight improvement, we will win more games than we lose.

Those are big IF's, though.
 
Unfortunately any chance at a bowl game likely hinges on CSU, which also happens to be the first game of the year. Since the Hawaii fiasco last year I don't have much confidence in season openers. Lose to CSU and probably head into Pac play at 1-2 and thus need 5 conference wins to hit bowl eligibility. Starting 2-0 also sets the tone and gives some confidence to the team. The first game will dictate the course of the season.
 
Bufffan68 said:
Mora is overrated for this exact reason in my book. His teams don't play as well as the talent level would expect.
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Yay! 1+++ somebody else spotted the truth about Mora! Simply an over-rated idiot.. Nonetheless, 1-11, with the win over UCLA, in Boulder.
 
Buffenuf said:
Yay! 1+++ somebody else spotted the truth about Mora! Simply an over-rated idiot.. Nonetheless, 1-11, with the win over UCLA, in Boulder.
Click to expand...

Mora is overrated. But that does not necessarily means he sucks, as you seem to imply with every non-CU coach out there.
 
UCLA has always had an under achieving culture. I have watched them since the 60s when Prothro was the coach and they have always been inconsistent. They have had some good coaches too. Prothro, Vermeil, Pepper Rogers, Terry Donahue, etc. . On the other had they usually have a winning record and have been pretty good under Mora...I think Mora is a good coach - 37-16 at UCLA.
 
That breakdown of games by OP really shows how long of a road we actually have to 6 wins. The team will need to win all 3 of the games that it should win (this is never a small task for CU early in the season) and win 3 out of 5 in a group of games that it probably won't be favored in.

Frankly I don't see it happening. Hopefully I'm wrong. I think we get 4 wins.
 
Duff Man said:
Mora is overrated. But that does not necessarily means he sucks, as you seem to imply with every non-CU coach out there.
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You have obviously mistaken me for someone else! I love the Pirate and Helfrich seems to make the right moves (UO is my Pac fav, besides the Buffs). I wanted OSU's Anderson in Boulder and enjoy the body of work of David Shaw. I begrudgingly admire Whittingham, but his teams are so beatable for 3-4 games every year, including by the Buffs; he's lucky HCMM is not 4-0 against him. Both coaches in AZ are suspect, as is Dykes. How long he lasts at Berkeley is an open question. Helton = unknown, but doesn't stir any bad feelings. Peterson is clever but over-rated; he won't win the North for some time to come.
Now, Mora should be in the NC hunt every year based on the talent in Westwood, but he hasn't even sniffed the play-offs, Why izzat? He's a DOOFUS!
Soooo, just shut your whore-mouth and next time...... Pay Attention!
 
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