Analyzing MBB Strength of Schedule (RPI)

[Buffnik]

Quick Refresher on how RPI is calculated:

A team's RPI is a sum of three values: 25% of the team's winning percentage, 50% of its opponents' average winning percentage (strength of schedule), and 25% of its opponents' opponents' average winning percentage (opponents' strength of schedule). Only results against teams which are in NCAA Division I are counted in all of these winning percentages.

Further, all road wins are treated as 1.4 wins, all road losses are treated as 0.6 losses, all home wins are worth 0.6 wins and all home losses are valued at 1.4 losses. Games in neutral sites still counts as 1.

Minor adjustments (bonus points or penalties) are factored in by the NCAA Selection Committee for scheduling Top 50 opponents, beating them, or -- on the other side -- scheduling too many games (usually over 50%) against below the Top 150 and losing any games to teams outside the Top 150.

When it comes to Tourney Selection, to get an at-large invite a team needs to be in the Top 70 to have a realistic chance. Last year's lowest Bubble entry was at #65.

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Here is CU's 2015-16 schedule along with each team's 2014-15 RPI (RealTimeRPI):

11/13/15 -- Iowa State (neutral)... #16 RPI
11/17/15 -- Auburn (away)... #131
11/20/15 -- Portland (home)...167
11/22/15 -- Omaha (home)... 298
11/25/15 -- Air Force (home)... 248
11/29/15 -- Northern Colorado (home)... 241
12/02/15 -- Fort Lewis (home)... n/a
12/06/15 -- Colorado State (away)... 37
12/12/15 -- Brigham Young (home)... 44
12/18/15 -- Nicholls (home)... 322
12/19/15 -- Hampton (home)... 220
12/22/15 -- Penn State (neutral)... 116
12/23/15 -- Kent State or SMU (neutral)... 84 or 18
01/01/16 -- Cal (away)... 92
01/03/16 -- Stanford (away)... 33
01/08/16 -- Utah (home)... 12
01/13/16 -- Oregon State (home)... 132
01/17/16 -- Oregon (home)... 26
01/20/16 -- Washington (away)... 122
01/23/16 -- Washington State (away)... 162
01/27/16 -- Stanford (home)... 33
01/31/16 -- Cal (home)... 92
02/04/16 -- Oregon (away)... 26
02/06/16 -- Oregon State (away)... 132
02/11/16 -- Washington State (home)... 162
02/13/16 -- Washington (home)... 122
02/17/16 -- USC (away)... 198
02/20/16 -- UCLA (away)... 38
02/24/16 -- Arizona (home)... 4
02/28/16 -- Arizona State (home)... 87
03/05/16 -- Utah (away)... 12

This is very much a middling schedule.

Only getting UA and UCLA once apiece in the conference schedule may help the Buffs in the Pac-12 standings, but it does no favors to the RPI.

Biggest thing is that the non-conference gives the opportunity for six potential games against the Top 100 with likely 3 or 4 against the Top 50. Buffs absolutely must get some wins out of those chances.

I don't know what to make of the Pac-12, though. Conference is relying on a lot of newcomers this year and it could go either way. There's a great opportunity for the Buffs with the advantageous schedule and one of the more veteran teams.

 

[GoBuffs88]

Better hope Arizona, Cal, and Utah look good in OOC to keep our conference RPI high.

 

[GoonieBuff]

On the plus side for RPI, it's good that we only face USC once.

 

[BuffG]

Really counting on CAL & OSU being top 50 teams this yr. Also need SMU to maintain w/o Larry in OOC.
I think it's safe to say there will be more top 50 P12 teams this year than last.
Either way, I complained a lot about last year's OOC so I can't praise the staff enough for putting a good one together.

 

[Buffnik]

I don't think the Buffs can afford to drop more than 2 games in the OOC without putting themselves behind the Bubble 8-ball heading into conference play.

 

[Darth Snow]

No margin for error at all. Yikes

 

[jgisland]

Scheduling is so tough, I don't know how they do it. This OOC schedule is terrible, they can't afford losses against this garbage. But if you schedule hard and lose, is that any better (RPI wise probably yes) but does that kill the soul of your team for conference play?

 

[CVilleBuff]

Pac is a bit mysterious, but this isn't a schedule tailored for an at-large bid unless CU is ready to take multiple top notch conference scalps/ win road games against decent squads flirting with the top 50. I'm fine with it as getting beaten down with a brutal OOC isn't what this program needs right now. I could see the OOC being a bit tougher than we think, but it won't have a huge effect.