Bracketology

[Jens1893]

Lunardi currently has 6 P12 teams, but no CU?

Arizona 3
Arizona State 11 play in
Cal 7
Oregon 6
Utah 8
UCLA 9

Has CU and USC in the first four out

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/161

 

[Chautauqua]

Gotta earn it! I actually prefer this outcome right now. The way CU played over the weekend we could use a psychological advantage, edge, chip on our shoulder (whatever you want to call it)

 

[DBT]

Lunardi is usually pretty accurate. But I don't know if it isn't kind of a self fulfilling prophesy kind of thing. In other words, at selection time, does his "bracketology" opinion get into the heads of the committee?

 

[Buffnik]

Lunardi is usually pretty accurate. But I don't know if it isn't kind of a self fulfilling prophesy kind of thing. In other words, at selection time, does his "bracketology" opinion get into the heads of the committee?

"Bracketology" is a joke in terms of what teams actually get into the tournament. We can do it by RPI here on AllBuffs and get all but about 3 or 4 correct. Everyone gets that about 95% correct on average. The seeding is the crap shoot and Lunardi hasn't been great at that.

 

[DBT]

"Bracketology" is a joke in terms of what teams actually get into the tournament. We can do it by RPI here on AllBuffs and get all but about 3 or 4 correct. Everyone gets that about 95% correct on average. The seeding is the crap shoot and Lunardi hasn't been great at that.

Thanks. I just think he gets way too much hype.

 

[scoob]

CU is entering the kindest and possibly the most crucial stretch of games in conference now. 5 of 7 at home and the two road games in WA. 6-1 and I feel pretty good. 5-2 and we're still right on the bubble (probably still on the outside looking in). Anything less and it will be a difficult proposition to make the dance without a couple really big wins down the stretch and maybe a P12 final appearance.

 

[Buffnik]

CU is entering the kindest and possibly the most crucial stretch of games in conference now. 5 of 7 at home and the two road games in WA. 6-1 and I feel pretty good. 5-2 and we're still right on the bubble (probably still on the outside looking in). Anything less and it will be a difficult proposition to make the dance without a couple really big wins down the stretch and maybe a P12 final appearance.

If the Buffs go 5-2 in this stretch, we're looking at a 17-5 record heading into the final 8 games. That would include multiple wins against Top 50 opponents with no "bad" losses against sub-150 teams on the RPI. We'd also be 6-3 in Pac-12 play, which would likely be good for somewhere between 2nd and 4th in the conference. That's nowhere close to the Bubble. It would put us in the 6-9 seed area, I'd expect.

 

[DBT]

If the Buffs go 5-2 in this stretch, we're looking at a 17-5 record heading into the final 8 games. That would include multiple wins against Top 50 opponents with no "bad" losses against sub-150 teams on the RPI. We'd also be 6-3 in Pac-12 play, which would likely be good for somewhere between 2nd and 4th in the conference. That's nowhere close to the Bubble. It would put us in the 6-9 seed area, I'd expect.

I think scoob is saying after this stretch, we are going to struggle to get wins.

 

[scoob]

I think scoob is saying after this stretch, we are going to struggle to get wins.

That's exactly what I'm saying. We will be favorites in three games the rest of the way.

 

[Buffnik]

That's exactly what I'm saying. We will be favorites in three games the rest of the way.

As of today, we'd be favorites in only 3. Everything will be different in a month once things start to sort out and shake out. There's so much luck involved, too, regarding whether you catch a team at the right time. There were stretches of this season when UCLA would have blown us out or vice versa, for example. To a lesser extend, same with USC. Today, I have no idea what that week against the two of them is going to look like.

 

[93Buff]

Jerry Palm has us as a 10 seed with NINE Pac 12 teams in. 9!

 

[scoob]

As of today, we'd be favorites in only 3. Everything will be different in a month once things start to sort out and shake out. There's so much luck involved, too, regarding whether you catch a team at the right time. There were stretches of this season when UCLA would have blown us out or vice versa, for example. To a lesser extend, same with USC. Today, I have no idea what that week against the two of them is going to look like.

That's why CU needs to take care if business in these 7. Just saying that 5-2, while it would be nice, would not make me feel any more comfortable than I do now.

FWIW, I think 4-3 or 5-2 are the most likely outcomes and we're going to need a win or two we're not supposed to get down the stretch to feel good.

Hopefully, as you say maybe UCLA, USC, and/or OSU has packed it in by then and it won't be as daunting as it looks now.

 

[Goose]

This is going to be a wild month or so in conference play.

 

[Buffenuf]

That's why CU needs to take care if business in these 7. Just saying that 5-2, while it would be nice, would not make me feel any more comfortable than I do now.

FWIW, I think 4-3 or 5-2 are the most likely outcomes and we're going to need a win or two we're not supposed to get down the stretch to feel good.

Hopefully, as you say maybe UCLA, USC, and/or OSU has packed it in by then and it won't be as daunting as it looks now.

 

[Buffenuf]

That's why CU needs to take care if business in these 7. Just saying that 5-2, while it would be nice, would not make me feel any more comfortable than I do now.

FWIW, I think 4-3 or 5-2 are the most likely outcomes and we're going to need a win or two we're not supposed to get down the stretch to feel good.

Hopefully, as you say maybe UCLA, USC, and/or OSU has packed it in by then and it won't be as daunting as it looks now.

You don't know the OSU coach, Tinkle, very well, do you? I wouldn't put his name and "pack it in" in the same book, let alone sentence.