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Bubble Watch 2017 (AKA, the Hoops Hate Thread)

Buffnik

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
3 weeks left before conference tourneys.

Buffs enter the week with an RPI of 107. Got to get that at least into the 60s to even make the Dance a legitimate conversation, but with 5 wins in the last 6, a very winnable road game at OSU, and then the final 4 games against RPI Top 100 teams... opportunity is there.

And we need some help.

I'm not going to worry about teams outside the multi-bid leagues, for the most part, regardless of RPI.

So let the hate flow as we root for teams to fail and get the **** out of our way!
 
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Monday, February 13th games we care about (team we're rooting for in bold):

#4 Louisville at Syracuse, 5pm, ESPN: Orange is RPI 73 with an 8-5 ACC record. Collapse needs to start here.
#6 Baylor at Texas Tech, 5pm, ESPNU: TTU is RPI 99 but 4-8 B12 record. A home loss here might cook them.
Troy at Louisiana Monroe, 6pm. LA Monroe is horrible. Chance to get a win, which would help CU's RPI.
 
Texas Tech beat Baylor. That's not good for us with the bubble, but then again... **** bailer!
Louisville took down Syracuse in OT. That's a good result for us.
 
February 14th - what we hope will be the Valentine's Day Bubble Massacre

Florida at Auburn (66 RPI), 5pm, SECN... **** Auburn
Tennessee (46) at Kentucky, 5pm, SECN... **** Tennessee
Wake Forest at Clemson (56), 5pm, ACCN... **** Clemson
VA Tech at Pitt (54), 5pm, ESPN2... **** Pitt (though VAT is #48 so not a disaster if this goes the other way)
Iona (100) at Canisius, 5pm... **** Iona. That's right, I don't know where or what an Iona is, but **** Iona.
Richmond (88) at George Mason, 5pm... **** Richmond
Mississippi State at Georgia (53), 7pm, ESPNU... **** Georgia
LSU at Ole Miss (60), 7pm, SECN... **** Mississippi
Ohio State (63) at Michigan State, 7pm, ESPN... **** Ohio State
Penn State (70) at Nebraska (86), 7pm, BTN... GO METEOR!
Boise State (61) at New Mexico (83), 8pm, CBSSN... UNM win likely makes the MWC a 1-bid league, so **** Boise
 
Here is what "an Iona" is ....
"Iona Abbey is located on the Isle of Iona, just off the Isle of Mull on the West Coast of Scotland. It is one of the oldest and most important religious centres in Western Europe. The abbey was a focal point for the spread of Christianity throughout Scotland and marks the foundation of a monastic community by St. Columba, when Iona was part of the Kingdom of Dál Riata. Iona Abbey is home to the Iona Community, an ecumenical Christian religious order, and remains a popular site of Christian pilgrimage today. The school was named after the Abby and is in located New Rochelle. NY
 
I think if the Buffs finish winning 4 of 5 (19-12 : 9-9) they'll need at least three wins in the Pac 12 Tournament to really have any serious consideration, and might need to win the thing.

However, considering the Buffs are basically in "win or go home" status, if they can somehow find a way to sweep the Oregon trip, then that changes things dramatically; considering they still come back home and win the final three. To finish (20-11 : 10-8) with 4 Top 25 wins and a 10-1 finish. I think they would likely be in the middle of the NCAA conversation, and would be a national story because of the 10-1 finish despite the 0-7 start in conference play. A 10-1 stretch that would have seen four big wins (2 vs Oregon, and wins over Cal and Utah) not to mention going 3-1 on the road during the run.

.... this week can just about make up the whole season, if they get both wins.
 
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Medford M. said:
I know Auburn has a decent RPI, but aren't they sub .500?
Click to expand...

16-9 against D1, 5-7 in SEC play. Need that losing conference record and to pass them on RPI rank. There are a lot of cases like that with teams that loaded up wins in the non-con but have a losing conference record right now (or close to it). CU is currently one of those teams and I think that if we turn that around while others don't that it will be a big advantage on Selection Sunday.
 
Losses: Auburn, Tennessee, Iona, Richmond

Didn't happen:
Clemson beat Wake (Not a disaster since that makes them both sub-500 in ACC, but Wake is somehow RPI 36 with a 15-11 record and Clemson is RPI 52 with a 14-11 record. Very soft bubble this year.)
 
Buffs Basketball Fan said:
Numbers skewed in ACC favor
Click to expand...

Yeah. They probably get 10 with having 5 of the top 16 teams. But I'd submit that the Pac-12 with next most among the best at 3, that a .500 P12 record should weigh more than a team with a losing record in the SEC and B1G this year... and there are a whole lot of those on the bubble.
 
not sure the credibility of this site, but I was actually researching my Hokies and came across this, which has CU as an NIT 8 seed.
 
CU is going to have win nearly all of the remaining 9 games (includes Pac-12 Tourney) if they want a chance at the dance.

Going 5-0 over the remaining three weeks and 3-1 would give the Buffs one hell of a resume. 23-12 with a handful of top 25 wins and no poor losses (CSU can really help us here if they continue winning. Currently 1st in MW)

23-12 would likely mean we would have to sweep UO. Very rare feat. Also possible that we could do that and still see a repeat of the KSU situation in 2011.
 
The most concerning thing I saw on RPI Forecast was a projection that even with the homerun of running the table for the remaining regular season games, the Buffs only project to finish with the #70 RPI.

With the projected loss at Oregon in the same model, they had us finishing at #85.

I believe that to be conservative, but if it's accurate we're pretty ****ed without making at least the P12T final game.
 
Buffnik said:
The most concerning thing I saw on RPI Forecast was a projection that even with the homerun of running the table for the remaining regular season games, the Buffs only project to finish with the #70 RPI.

With the projected loss at Oregon in the same model, they had us finishing at #85.

I believe that to be conservative, but if it's accurate we're pretty ****ed without making at least the P12T final game.
Click to expand...

I've been resigned to this since the ASU loss. I still believe this team can beat anyone in the conference when they want to, but up until a few weeks ago the want to was the big problem. The '12 team had these types of ups and downs to, but the talent level isn't what it is now, but the senior leadership isn't where it was in '12, yet anyway.
 
I think out chances of at-large are completely boned. But I have more faith than I did a few weeks ago that we could actually get on crazy run and win the P12 tourney. We've beat Oregon once, UCLA has shown some cracks. We probably won't have to face all of the big 3 in a tourney run.
 
We want that bubble Charmin-soft. Here's who we hate today (we're cheering for the teams in bold):

Arkansas (RPI 48) at South Carolina (RPI 21), 4:30pm, SECN... Arky can drop within range while moving to 7-6 in SEC.
Xavier (RPI 13) at Providence (RPI 68), 4:30pm, FS1... rooting for Xavier as much as hate-watching Providence, which could fall to 5-9 in Big East.
Iowa State (RPI 55) at Kansas State (RPI 50), 5pm, ESPN2... Go Meteor! But ISU is 7-5 in Big 12 while KSU is 5-7, so KSU win keeps them both more mediocre.
Temple (RPI 83) at East Carolina (RPI 233), 5pm, ESPNN... Temple already done, but loss would drop them back.
Winthrop (RPI 82) at Longwood (RPI 339), 5pm... Even a Winthrop win should hurt their resume. A loss and whatever-the-**** a Winthrop is would be in our rearview mirror.
Presbyterian (RPI 346) at UNC Asheville (RPI 67), 5pm... Home win over hot garbage hurts resume. A loss and UNC-A would plummet.
Furman (RPI 88) at Western Carolina (RPI 257), 5pm... **** Furman! Kind of bad loss we need in front of us.
Samford (RPI 167) at East Tennessee State (RPI 100), 5pm... Realistic spot for an upset here. "This is the big one! I'm comin', Elizabeth!"
Chattanooga (RPI 81) at VMI (RPI 320), 5pm... No way they lose this, right? Hard to win on the road.
North Dakota State (RPI 91) at Fort Wayne (RPI 157), 5pm... Wouldn't even be an upset. Excellent! Party Time!
Wichita State (RPI 47) at Southern Illinois (RPI 177), 5pm... **** the Shockers.
Fordham (RPI 212) at Rhode Island (RPI 42), 5pm... Would rank among the worst losses of the season. Potential killer.
Vermont (RPI 52) at UMass Lowell (RPI 291), 5pm... Another game that would be a disaster loss. **** Vermont!
Bucknell (RPI 94) at Loyola MD (RPI 170), 5:30pm... One to watch with a legit upset chance.
Georgia Tech (RPI 76) at Miami (RPI 54), 6pm... ACC teams just can't hurt each other much. Both 6-6. Go Miami to get GAT off the bubble.
North Carolina (RPI 8) at NC State (RPI 108), 6pm... Tar Heels need to win this and keep NCST behind us.
Creighton (RPI 17) at Seton Hall (RPI 49), 6pm... The Hall is 5-7 in a down Big East. This is a good opportunity to further weaken that resume.
Alabama (RPI 69) at Missouri (RPI 245), 6:30pm, SECN... Mizzou's been playing ok lately. They could help a lot here by dropping Bama to 14-11, 7-6.
Indiana (RPI 90) at Minnesota (RPI 25), 7pm, BTN... Gophers can drop Hoosiers to 15-12, 5-9.
Oklahoma State (RPI 30) at TCU (RPI 39), 7pm, ESPNU... TCU is 6-6, OSU is 5-7. Better chance for CU if OSU drops a losing Big 12 record on TCU.
Illinois State (RPI 34) at Missouri State (RPI 202), 7pm... Could be a big drop with a road loss here.
Nevada (RPI 46) at Air Force (RPI 241), 7pm... Go Zoomies! **** Nevada!
San Diego State (RPI 98) at Utah State (RPI 186), 8pm, CBSSN... Tough place to play and this one would help us.

1. The Bubble sucks this year.
2. "Like" to the first person who gets the 2 pop culture references from tv comedy.
 
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Buffnik said:
Furman (RPI 88) at Western Carolina (RPI 257), 5pm... **** Furman! Kind of bad loss we need in front of us.

2. "Like" to the first person who gets the 2 pop culture references from tv comedy.
Click to expand...

Obviously this one is referring to "The People vs OJ Simpson", but I'm not sure I'd refer to that as a comedy man...
 
Nothing much happening with all these upsets we'd want.

Fordham did win at Rhode Island, which is crazy.

Temple losing at East Carolina helped us out.

Northwestern and KSU took hits tonight, too.

Night is young.
 
lawdogg said:
SNL Wayne's World reference in there to go along with Sanford.
Click to expand...

And Fort Wayne did get the win for us!
c78549d8ecf52eccf56e5dbabb78b467.jpg
 
Georgia Tech lost at Miami. Two programs going in opposite directions for making the Dance.
 
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