Buffs go as Ski goes

[mattrob]

It's been said here many times, but this team lacks any sort of leader or go-to scorer. That's the difference between the mediocre team we're seeing now and an upper-echelon Pac12 team. The one player that consistently wants the ball and will take the big shot is Ski, but unfortunately he's also the most erratic player on the team. If you want to see why the team started strong and has since tapered off, look no further than his game log. Here's a breakdown of record by his shooting percentage:

40% +: 9-0, including wins over Murray State, Baylor, Stanford and Cal.

30-39%: 2-3, including the Arizona State and UCLA losses. The AF and USC wins do fall here.

>30%: 3-4, with our most disappointing losses: Wyoming, Arizona, Washington and Utah. We did manage to beat CSU and Washington State with Ski shooting horribly.

This makes it pretty obvious that, when Ski is on, we win. When he's off though, we can lose to anyone in the conference. Hopefully we see the “good" Ski down the stretch and can find someone else to step into that go-to role next season.

 

[mattrob]

Looking at this closer, Ski has shot very poorly away from the Keg. Here are splits for our 6 primary contributors.

	Home	Away	Differential
Dinwiddie	50%	44.3%	-5.7%
Ski	46.3%	27.8%	-18.5%
Scott	54.3%	45.3%	-9%
Dre	54.9%	45.5%	-9.4%
XJ	55.4%	43.5%	-11.9%
Chen	50%	41.4%	-8.6%

The road numbers definitely aren't good across the board, but they aren't THAT bad until you see that 27.8% jump out at you. Anyway, this isn't meant to be a pick on Ski thread like it probably seems, but this, to me, is the clearest explanation for the Jekyll and Hyde act of this team.

 

[jgisland]

Abs and I had a 20 minute discussion about this tonight. I have already said a lot of this before but you can't have a guy that shoots as poorly as Ski does playing as much and shooting as much as he does and win consistently. You have to limit your exposure, bringing him off the bench and limiting some of the minutes he has on the court with Dinwiddie and Scott especially would make a ton of difference (Abs great point there). If you bring him off the bench he will provide instant offense (good or bad offense). If he has a spurt where he gets hot like he can you have a nice little uptick from your bench. If he has an all too common 3-14 night you can weather that because he wouldn't be taking possessions away from your most productive players (Scott and Dinwiddie) and you aren't expecting much from your bench any way.

The road vs home numbers happen, I would expect nearly every team in College basketball's to look roughly the same. Dinwiddie has to be the guy this year, he has to take it to the hoop like he did the last 3 minutes and be the guy to bail the team out when the shot clock is winding down. He has shown that he can do it, he just seems to defer to Booker far far to often.

 

[mattrob]

I agree pretty much across the board jg. And I've been a fan of moving him to the bench for much the same reason- we aren't getting bench production anyway, so the empty possessions in with the 2nd unit aren't any more damaging than what we're getting now.

As for the road numbers, I agree for the most part, but you won't see many starters for major conference schools shooting less than 30%. Any way you look at it, his struggles on the road are a big part of the reason we're struggling as a team.

 

[jgisland]

As for the road numbers, I agree for the most part, but you won't see many starters for major conference schools shooting less than 30%. Any way you look at it, his struggles on the road are a big part of the reason we're struggling as a team.

I was referring to the team at large having lower numbers on the road vs home. But totally agree, him shooting 27% has a ton to do with the road troubles.

 

[rosstr]

Abs and I had a 20 minute discussion about this tonight. I have already said a lot of this before but you can't have a guy that shoots as poorly as Ski does playing as much and shooting as much as he does and win consistently. You have to limit your exposure, bringing him off the bench and limiting some of the minutes he has on the court with Dinwiddie and Scott especially would make a ton of difference (Abs great point there). If you bring him off the bench he will provide instant offense (good or bad offense). If he has a spurt where he gets hot like he can you have a nice little uptick from your bench. If he has an all too common 3-14 night you can weather that because he wouldn't be taking possessions away from your most productive players (Scott and Dinwiddie) and you aren't expecting much from your bench any way.

The road vs home numbers happen, I would expect nearly every team in College basketball's to look roughly the same. Dinwiddie has to be the guy this year, he has to take it to the hoop like he did the last 3 minutes and be the guy to bail the team out when the shot clock is winding down. He has shown that he can do it, he just seems to defer to Booker far far to often.

There are three players who can consistently produce their own offense for CU. Dinwiddie, Scott and Booker. Benching one of those three would be asinine. You attempt to win games by putting your best ballplayers on the court. Period.

CU got beat on the block. Pure and simple. Until inside help arrives, CU will live by Booker and die by Booker

 

[jgisland]

There are three players who can consistently produce their own offense for CU. Dinwiddie, Scott and Booker. Benching one of those three would be asinine. You attempt to win games by putting your best ballplayers on the court. Period.

CU got beat on the block. Pure and simple. For CU to win Booker needs play great. There is no room for error for CU.

I think you are confusing benching and coming off the bench. Ski has value, no doubt about it, the problem is his value isn't being maximized in the role he is currently playing.

The words of Jeff Van Gundy talking about Pau Gasol seem to fit here as well. "If Manu Ginobili can come off the bench in San Antonio and not say one word, so can you."

 

[Gold]

Ski went 3-14. So yes, agree when the guy who jacks up the most shots on the team shoots 21%, you're lucky to win, but most times lose that game.

But the problem is more dynamic. If Ski is having an off night, we have to find other scorers. Not let him shoot his way out of it. Has to be a point of emphasis and coaches need to ID the problem (Bookers having an off night) quicker in the game. I'd rather force it into Scott, XJ and Dre than continue to let him jack it up on an off night.

When Ski is hot, let him shoot and run the show. On games like this, he needs to be a pass first guy or benched.

 

[torero]

He is JR Smith.

 

[jwhite17]

Looking at those stats, Ski should NOT be taking nearly as many shots on the road as he does. He's our worst offensive player easily on the road. Those home vs. away splits are scary, almost 20% difference! No other player is over 5%.

Ski can be a great player when he plays within himself and doesn't try so many off balance jumpers. He's at his best driving to the rim or pulling up for a jumper on a fastbreak. He actually passes the ball well when driving to the rim as well. That's the Ski we need on the road. Not the 3-14 shooter.

 

[BlackNGold]

I disagree with putting him on the bench because you have no one on the bench to replace him. He is averaging 33 minutes a game (34 in conference play), who are you going to give his minutes to and how many of his minutes are you going to cut. Who are you going to give those minutes to that make you a better team? CU is built for more of an up tempo pace, Booker helps with that.

 

[tante]

Looking at those stats, Ski should NOT be taking nearly as many shots on the road as he does. He's our worst offensive player easily on the road. Those home vs. away splits are scary, almost 20% difference! No other player is over 5%.

I think you mean no player is under 5%.

 

[jgisland]

I disagree with putting him on the bench because you have no one on the bench to replace him. He is averaging 33 minutes a game (34 in conference play), who are you going to give his minutes to and how many of his minutes are you going to cut. Who are you going to give those minutes to that make you a better team? CU is built for more of an up tempo pace, Booker helps with that.

You wouldn't even have to limit his minutes that much to be honest, I would just completely change the group he plays with. Take him out of the starting line-up and limit the minutes he plays with Dinwiddie and Scott. When Dinwiddie and Ski play together Dinwiddie defers to Ski and that is just killing CU.

I also know that Talton has looked lost for a good part of the year and completely fell out of the rotation, but he looked good and provided a spark in the Utah game, he was the only one attacking the hoop to that point. Dinwiddie was in the game with Talton and seemed to have the light bulb click on, "oh yeah I am ridiculously good at driving to the hoop and gettign to the foul line" (14th best in the country good). So maybe give Talton some of the mins Ski would normally be playing with Scott and Dinwiddie.

 

[BlackNGold]

You wouldn't even have to limit his minutes that much to be honest, I would just completely change the group he plays with. Take him out of the starting line-up and limit the minutes he plays with Dinwiddie and Scott. When Dinwiddie and Ski play together Dinwiddie defers to Ski and that is just killing CU.

I also know that Talton has looked lost for a good part of the year and completely fell out of the rotation, but he looked good and provided a spark in the Utah game, he was the only one attacking the hoop to that point. Dinwiddie was in the game with Talton and seemed to have the light bulb click on, "oh yeah I am ridiculously good at driving to the hoop and gettign to the foul line" (14th best in the country good). So maybe give Talton some of the mins Ski would normally be playing with Scott and Dinwiddie.

Since all of those guys are playing about 30 minutes a game it is going to be hard to not have them all in the game at the same time. If Talton was the answer I am sure that Boyle would be giving him the minutes. He is only averaging about 7 minutes a game. Usually when you increase someones minutes you would only do it by a few minutes a game until they show they can do the job...it is late in the year to be experimenting with rotation.

 

[Buffnik]

I can see where this could make some sense at the start of games.

If we tipped off with Mayor, Sab, Dre, X and Jelly for the first 5 minutes or so, we could bring Ski in for that first break. That would give the team an opportunity to have enough scoring punch to extend after going to the bench. As it stands, we end up hoping we jump out to a lead and that our reserves can play good enough defense to maintain things while the starters rest.

Considering that barring foul trouble or illness our starters are going to play 30 minutes or more in a close game, I just don't see what Ski being a 6th man does to really help. I think you can start him, hope he gets us off to a fast start, and then set the rotation so that either Ski or Mayor goes some extra time while the other gets subbed. Then you reverse that through the next substitution pattern. Under no circumstances should both be on the bench at the same time.

 

[jgisland]

But hoping that Ski gets us off to a good start is a crap shoot, he has shot under 40% 13 times this year and in 6 of those games he shot under 30%. The biggest issue is that you could live with him shooting that low if he found other ways to contribute rather than just putting up more shots.

His 3 best games from a FG% were the 3 games he shot the least amount of shots. (Cal, Stanford and Northern Arizona). He has to way

 

[mattrob]

I can see where this could make some sense at the start of games.

If we tipped off with Mayor, Sab, Dre, X and Jelly for the first 5 minutes or so, we could bring Ski in for that first break. That would give the team an opportunity to have enough scoring punch to extend after going to the bench. As it stands, we end up hoping we jump out to a lead and that our reserves can play good enough defense to maintain things while the starters rest.

Considering that barring foul trouble or illness our starters are going to play 30 minutes or more in a close game, I just don't see what Ski being a 6th man does to really help. I think you can start him, hope he gets us off to a fast start, and then set the rotation so that either Ski or Mayor goes some extra time while the other gets subbed. Then you reverse that through the next substitution pattern. Under no circumstances should both be on the bench at the same time.

I can see your point about the minutes, and it's not a change that would make a night and day difference, but we seem to have two dead periods offensively in every game. The first seems to come after the first a little before the midway point of the first half, when we see the first wave of substitutions and the starters start to coast a little. I think this is where having Ski as the sixty man really helps. He can come in off the bench, bring some energy and really push the pace.

The second lull is always out of the lockerroom and even though bringing Ski in as a 6th man doesn't directly affect that, at least he would have a bench option to try to ignite the team. As it stands, bringing Chen or SHT off the bench doesn't exactly kick the offense into high-gear.

 

[shang]

But hoping that Ski gets us off to a good start is a crap shoot, he has shot under 40% 13 times this year and in 6 of those games he shot under 30%. The biggest issue is that you could live with him shooting that low if he found other ways to contribute rather than just putting up more shots.

His 3 best games from a FG% were the 3 games he shot the least amount of shots. (Cal, Stanford and Northern Arizona). He has to way

i totally see your point, when compared to last year, he avg just shy of 10 pts per game on 21 minutes per game, now we pick up 14 points per game on 32 minutes per game, his fg% is a steady 40% last year and so far this year.... its just that from your observation of the bad games, coaching has to come into play and he needs to sit when he is consistantly that inconsistant, obviously when he's hot, hell don't take him out!!! And from one of your previous post where his shot selection has changed from last year, if he could only see the open man, those midrange crazy shots w/ 2-3 defenders on him would turn into beautiful dimes to X, Dre or Josh....