The Buffs are only 6-9 vs Cal all time. Not great, but the Buffs have a proven track record of being able to beat Cal and that record is only three games off from being even up.
.
http://www.buffzone.com/womensbasketball/ci_30722656/cu-womens-basketball-preview-no-24-california
Like the Buffs the Bears come in with only a single Pac-12 conference win. They've lost three in a row in conference. Two of those losses were to higher ranked ASU and Oregon State but Cal also has a loss to unranked Oregon. Both CU and Cal have a single conference win to their record, and both have only managed to beat the same lowly Arizona team that should finish 12th in the Conference when all is said and done.
On paper the Buffs shouldn't be able to play with Cal as the Bears have an 84.26 NCAAW Sagarin rating which is good for being 35/349 Div-I women's teams. Whereas the Buffs have been sliding precipitously down the rankings of late. Its not so much that the Buffs have been losing to higher ranked teams, its that they haven't played competitively within the expected margins based on what they are capable of. The Buffs were ranked as high as Cal earlier in the season in the Sagarin ratings, but right now the Buffs are just not playing as well as they were earlier in the season. The Buffs currently have dropped below the "major conference line" of an 80 rating, with a 79.97 Sagarin NCAAW rating, making them on par with a mid-major monster team, below the quality of a typical Pac-12 team. The Buffs Sagarin rating has fallen so far they are only now 56/349 Div-I women's teams.
So by the metrics the Buffs are still one of the top-64 teams in NCAAW. However, tournament invites aren't based on the best 64 teams by metrics. NCAAW tournament invites are based on reputation and wins. The Buffs at this point have zero chance of an NCAAW invitation, unless they win the conference tournament. As it stands, the Buffs might not potentially win another Pac-12 conference game the entire season. Some poster earlier confused the Sagarin ratings with being a First Four Out team in terms of Tournament seedings. The NCCAW tournament committee receives the Sagarin ratings, but for the most part the NCAAW tournament seedings is a function of (in order of importance): proximity to the East Coast, Big conference reputations, program influence and money. Conferences like the Summit don't receive but one invitation every season while big Conferences like the ACC and Pac-12 receive often times more invited teams than they deserve. Teams like South Dakota State, Oral Roberts and South Dakota could each easily beat a first round matchup in the NCAAW tournament depending on who they draw, but never get invited.
This season the Pac-12 will probably actually NOT have enough teams invited per the quality of the conference. The Pac-12 is the #1 conference in NCAAW.
Even with the home court advantage which is right now at an aggregate value of 3.19 the Buffs are underdogs in this game: 79.97 + 3.19 = 83.16 vs the 84.26 rating of Cal.
However, that's why they play the games!
Go Buffs! Get a second conference win and turn this slide around! Probably one of the most winnable games remaining on the schedule.
The Buffs recent problems have everything to do with not being able to match up defensively with the Pac-12 athletes they are facing every game. Should be interesting to see JR Payne's approach to this game understanding the Buffs are playing with a roster that just doesn't have the players to match up in terms of the physicality or the length, never mind the athleticism of opposing players.
The Buffs have a couple of scorers, the difference in the game is the ability to scheme to compensate for the limitations of the team defensively. Can it be done. Sure it can. The Buffs have a higher ceiling and game upside than Cal, they've just been playing below that.
Go Buffs!
.
http://www.buffzone.com/womensbasketball/ci_30722656/cu-womens-basketball-preview-no-24-california
Like the Buffs the Bears come in with only a single Pac-12 conference win. They've lost three in a row in conference. Two of those losses were to higher ranked ASU and Oregon State but Cal also has a loss to unranked Oregon. Both CU and Cal have a single conference win to their record, and both have only managed to beat the same lowly Arizona team that should finish 12th in the Conference when all is said and done.
On paper the Buffs shouldn't be able to play with Cal as the Bears have an 84.26 NCAAW Sagarin rating which is good for being 35/349 Div-I women's teams. Whereas the Buffs have been sliding precipitously down the rankings of late. Its not so much that the Buffs have been losing to higher ranked teams, its that they haven't played competitively within the expected margins based on what they are capable of. The Buffs were ranked as high as Cal earlier in the season in the Sagarin ratings, but right now the Buffs are just not playing as well as they were earlier in the season. The Buffs currently have dropped below the "major conference line" of an 80 rating, with a 79.97 Sagarin NCAAW rating, making them on par with a mid-major monster team, below the quality of a typical Pac-12 team. The Buffs Sagarin rating has fallen so far they are only now 56/349 Div-I women's teams.
So by the metrics the Buffs are still one of the top-64 teams in NCAAW. However, tournament invites aren't based on the best 64 teams by metrics. NCAAW tournament invites are based on reputation and wins. The Buffs at this point have zero chance of an NCAAW invitation, unless they win the conference tournament. As it stands, the Buffs might not potentially win another Pac-12 conference game the entire season. Some poster earlier confused the Sagarin ratings with being a First Four Out team in terms of Tournament seedings. The NCCAW tournament committee receives the Sagarin ratings, but for the most part the NCAAW tournament seedings is a function of (in order of importance): proximity to the East Coast, Big conference reputations, program influence and money. Conferences like the Summit don't receive but one invitation every season while big Conferences like the ACC and Pac-12 receive often times more invited teams than they deserve. Teams like South Dakota State, Oral Roberts and South Dakota could each easily beat a first round matchup in the NCAAW tournament depending on who they draw, but never get invited.
This season the Pac-12 will probably actually NOT have enough teams invited per the quality of the conference. The Pac-12 is the #1 conference in NCAAW.
Even with the home court advantage which is right now at an aggregate value of 3.19 the Buffs are underdogs in this game: 79.97 + 3.19 = 83.16 vs the 84.26 rating of Cal.
However, that's why they play the games!
Go Buffs! Get a second conference win and turn this slide around! Probably one of the most winnable games remaining on the schedule.
The Buffs recent problems have everything to do with not being able to match up defensively with the Pac-12 athletes they are facing every game. Should be interesting to see JR Payne's approach to this game understanding the Buffs are playing with a roster that just doesn't have the players to match up in terms of the physicality or the length, never mind the athleticism of opposing players.
The Buffs have a couple of scorers, the difference in the game is the ability to scheme to compensate for the limitations of the team defensively. Can it be done. Sure it can. The Buffs have a higher ceiling and game upside than Cal, they've just been playing below that.
Go Buffs!
