Can we sneak into the tourney with a .500 or worse record in conference?

[jwhite17]

Without Dinwiddie, I honestly don't see winning another road game except USC and that's not a guarantee either unless Booker plays lights out (which he usually doesn't in true road games, shooting 24% in four road games this year), so that means we will have to go 4-1 against Wash, WSU, Utah, ASU and Zona at home. I don't see us beating Zona at home because they are that good this year, but the rest of the games are must win to get to .500 in conference.

Thus, can we still sneak into the tourney with a 9-9 conference record? I believe we will still have a solid RPI with those road losses.

Not much margin for error.

 

[absinthe]

I am concerned about the three game roadie to close the season.

 

[cubuffs85]

I am concerned about the three game roadie to close the season.

Agreed, but I'll worry about that later.

 

[jwhite17]

Agreed, that's why I'm not expecting to win any road games except USC. We have a chance against ASU if the refs call a fair game and ASU is missing Marshall. That would be huge to get that one.

Utah is much improved with Delon Wright and Loveridge, and they are getting a ton of fan support now. Stanford is a solid team that has a ton of experience players, but no one cares about them, so maybe we can sneak up on them. Cal is solid with Monty as their coach and really good seniors in Solomon and Cobbs and a good supporting cast, but we have never played well there.

 

[cubuffs85]

Agreed, that's why I'm not expecting to win any road games except USC. We have a chance against ASU if the refs call a fair game and ASU is missing Marshall. That would be huge to get that one.

Utah is much improved with Delon Wright and Loveridge, and they are getting a ton of fan support now. Stanford is a solid team that has a ton of experience players, but no one cares about them, so maybe we can sneak up on them. Cal is solid with Monty as their coach and really good seniors in Solomon and Cobbs and a good supporting cast, but we have never played well there.

I'm not big with hyperbole, but I do agree now that we've gone from tourney lock to tourney bubble that a road win against ASU would be a good one. I'll be ecstatic if that happens. Any road win we can get at this point is significant. I actually think we'll beat USC at Galen, not a given but I think we should unless they get better.

 

[rolandftw]

I think CU would probably get in at 9-9. The committee would make the seed much lower then they would if CU was healthy though. Anything short of .500, and this team is a NIT team.

 

[cubuffs85]

I think CU would probably get in at 9-9. The committee would make the seed much lower then they would if CU was healthy though. Anything short of .500, and this team is a NIT team.

Play-in team at 9-9?

 

[CVilleBuff]

Haven't heavily researched it but 8-10 makes it unlikely IMO. Maybe OOC saves us, but it would be somewhat miraculous. 9-9 gets us in IMO

 

[slider]

Yes. I'm not sure they can turn us down as long as we avoid bad losses. We have solid W's on our resume. Where would our RPI end up at 9-9?

12 games remaining to win 5? We can do that. Hopefully we win a game or two in the Pac-12 tourney too

 

[cubuffs85]

Yes. I'm not sure they can turn us down as long as we avoid bad losses. We have solid W's on our resume. Where would our RPI end up at 9-9?

12 games remaining to win 5? We can do that. Hopefully we win a game or two in the Pac-12 tourney too

Yeah I tend to agree if we keep the status quo, it's all in flux though.

 

[rolandftw]

Play-in team at 9-9?

Wouldn't shock me. Depends who the wins and losses are against. You're probably better off taking a bad loss to someone, but getting a big win such as beating Zona, Cal or UCLA... then you are beating all the bad to mediocre teams on the schedule and losing to all of the good ones.

 

[cubuffs85]

Wouldn't shock me. Depends who the wins and losses are against. You're probably better off taking a bad loss to someone, but getting a big win such as beating Zona, Cal or UCLA... then you are beating all the bad to mediocre teams on the schedule and losing to all of the good ones.

I mean it's all factored in -- total record, good/bad losses, road wins, etc. I mean just being your average 9-9 team. If you beat UofA and UCLA on the road that changes things, assuming the losses aren't too bad.

 

[whatthebuff]

It seems like they weigh bad losses more than good wins? The year we beat KSU x3, Texas, Missouri, etc but lost to San Francisco and a few other bad teams we didn't make it. Does anyone know what is considered a bad loss? Over 100 rpi...200 rpi?

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

It seems like they weigh bad losses more than good wins? The year we beat KSU x3, Texas, Missouri, etc but lost to San Francisco and a few other bad teams we didn't make it. Does anyone know what is considered a bad loss? Over 100 rpi...200 rpi?

That had more to do with the fact that our SOS was super awful.

 

[rolandftw]

I mean it's all factored in -- total record, good/bad losses, road wins, etc. I mean just being your average 9-9 team. If you beat UofA and UCLA on the road that changes things, assuming the losses aren't too bad.

Sure. My point was the committee is looking to see if CU is a good team (post Dinwiddie and Fletcher injuries), and will need to see the Buffs beating a good team to probably believe that.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Florida State probably has the record. Snuck in with a 6-10 ACC record in the 90s, but this was the ACC at its peak and they had some monster wins along the way.

 

[Eggon]

We have already experienced the big snub in recent years. Leave it all on the court.... Do finish with a winning record in conference.

Win a tough underdog road game or two,
or
battle Az or Cal and win,
or
Win Pac 12 tourney.

Tough task, but I think Tad will get it done. One way or another. He is gonna battle.