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College Football Playoff Prospects

jkppkjjkp

Well-Known Member
With Baylor and West Virginia losing today the talking heads are saying that the Big XII is officially eliminated from the CFP which they say opens up opportunities for the Texas A&M or Ohio States of the world.

I'm no so sure I buy that. We've only got two seasons to go on, but all 8 playoff teams were P5 conference champions.

I can't seem to find it now, but I seem to recall someone with the selection committee saying that a conference championship could even be seen as a prerequisite to get into the CFP. Pretty simple logic, if you want to compete for the National Champ, you better be the Champ of your own conference; right?

Well, that all reminds me of the year we took our Big XII Championship to the Fiesta Bowl and the Fuskers went to Pasadena to play for the title. So it wouldn't be all that crazy to see a non champ in the CFP.

I think the natural order for the CFP selection is as follows

1. Undefeated P5 Teams (implies Conf Champ, although BigXII could feasibly produce 2 undefeated teams in a season)
2. 1-loss P5 Conference Champs
2a. Undefeated Group of 5 Teams, possibly above 1-loss P5 Conference Champs if SOS is comparable and it's a program like Boise/Houston/etc with some national recognition and history.
3. 2-loss P5 Conf Champs
3a. 1-loss P5 teams
3b. 1-loss G5 team with awesome SOS

Mostly, I'm just talking myself into a belief that CU can run the table, and at 11-2 get into the CFP.

This would require a lot of help.

One of the other P5's would also have to produce a 2 loss champ, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Baylor all play each other still so there's a good chance the Big XII obliges. Clemson keeps playing with fire, so maybe they stumble in the ACC Championship game against Virginia Tech or whoever.

At this point, if we're trying to pick between P5 Champs 11-2 Colorado, 11-2 Virginia Tech, and 10-2 Oklahoma, we'd have 13-0 Bama, and 13-0 Michigan squarely in. Meanwhile 13-0 Western Michigan with their prestigious MAC title would be popping into the conversation as would 11-1 Texas A&M, 12-1 Clemson and 11-1 Louisville.

Hey, it could happen. Right?
 
A&M, Clemson, Louisville, and maybe even CMU would all still be ahead of CU in this scenario. The Rose Bowl would be very sweet. The playoffs are just not happening, sorry.
 
scoob said:
A&M, Clemson, Louisville, and maybe even CMU would all still be ahead of CU in this scenario. The Rose Bowl would be very sweet.
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Only CMU would have won their conference. I'm not so sure the playoff committee puts a non conference champ into a 4 team playoff when there are 5 "Power" conferences.
 
Wow...dumb.

Washington escapes Utah with playoff hopes intact

"No. 23 Colorado, which won't play the Huskies in the regular season, was the Pac-12's only other ranked team entering the weekend. The Buffaloes are off this week. Washington State and USC are both receiving votes in the national polls. The Cougars, essentially 26th in the AP, will host the Huskies in the annual Apple Cup on Nov. 25. The Huskies play host to resurgent USC on Nov. 12.
Washington also will have the Pac-12 title game in which to impress the CFP selection committee. That could be a rematch with Utah. The South Division game of the year might be Colorado's visit to Utah on Nov. 26, the final weekend of the regular season."

http://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/105520/washington-escapes-utah-with-playoff-hopes-intact
 
Yeah, we're still not getting any respect, and as much as I hate to lump us in with the sister ****ers to the west of us, neither is Utah.
 
As far as the Big 12, I think Baylor is out......WVU needs to win out and get some help (UNC, VT, or Pitt winning the ACC, Florida winning the SEC, the Ohio State/Michigan loser with two losses). WMU, as good a story as they might be, is likely headed for the Cotton Bowl, and they'd need to finish 13-0 to get there. The real winner from the chaos yesterday was A&M IMO, and I'd put them 5th right now. Louisville should have gone down, and I still think the Ohio State/Michigan loser is likely going to the Rose Bowl. Too late a loss to think about the CFP.
 
I'm not sure you can assume WVU is in any better shape than Baylor. They have played exactly no one YTD, and then lost to the first above average opponent they faced. They still have to play @ Texas, then OU and Baylor at home. They could lose all 3 of those, but definitely lose one.
 
It really seems like the Big 12 goes out of their way to rig the schedule so the bottom half of the league teams play the top half of the league teams to open the season. This artificially inflates the record of the "good" teams, and now they are "top" teams that just happen to be beating up on each other.

Smart, but I have caught on to their act. **** the Big 12.
 
Highlander said:
I'm not sure you can assume WVU is in any better shape than Baylor. They have played exactly no one YTD, and then lost to the first above average opponent they faced. They still have to play @ Texas, then OU and Baylor at home. They could lose all 3 of those, but definitely lose one.
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As of now, they are in better shape than Baylor. Baylor had their annual September cupcake fest (which this year included Northwestern State, SMU, and a road game at Rice.......wow). West Virginia played Mizzou at home, Youngstown State, and BYU at FedEx Field. If I'm on the committee, WVU gets the same amount of credit for Missouri that Washington does for playing Rutgers-both those games looked tougher when the contracts was signed, sure, but its a P5, and not one that had been consistently down, a la Kansas. That whole conference misses out again unless you've got mass chaos elsewhere.. .
 
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ahoelsken said:
As of now, they are in better shape than Baylor. Baylor had their annual September cupcake fest (which this year included Northwestern State, SMU, and a road game at Rice.......wow). West Virginia played Mizzou at home, Youngstown State, and BYU at FedEx Field. If I'm on the committee, WVU gets the same amount of credit for Missouri that Washington does for playing Rutgers-both those games looked tougher when the contracts was signed, sure, but its a P5, and not one that had been consistently down, a la Kansas. That whole conference misses out again unless you've got mass chaos elsewhere.. .
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This is the key point.
 
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Duff Man said:
The chaos begins if Bama loses. Good luck sorting out that mess.
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They're at LSU and the Tigers only have 1 SEC loss. So LSU has a very clear path to the SEC title. They've got a ridiculous schedule remaining, but if they run it there's no way they haven't earned a trip to the Playoff.

The fear for the SEC is that Florida loses to LSU and FSU to finish the year but wins the SEC title over a 1-loss Bama or 2-loss other. Would a 3-loss SEC Champ get left out of the playoff? I'd think so.
 
This could be the year where 2 teams from 1 conference get in. Louisville, A&M, and Michigan are all candidates to get in if they don't win their conference titles. With ND out of the picture, the Big 12 all but out, all it would take is a Washington loss to open the door for 2 teams from a conference to get in.

Louisville would obviously need to win out and then also have Clemson go undefeated and win the ACC.
Michigan could possibly be in the hunt if their only loss is to Ohio State and the Buckeyes win the Big 10 with 1 loss. Ohio State doesn't get in without winning the Big 10 title, which means winning out. And if Ohio State wins out, they're in the playoff.
A&M could get if they finish 11-1 but Bama wins the West and the SEC title game.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
This could be the year where 2 teams from 1 conference get in. Louisville, A&M, and Michigan are all candidates to get in if they don't win their conference titles. With ND out of the picture, the Big 12 all but out, all it would take is a Washington loss to open the door for 2 teams from a conference to get in.

Louisville would obviously need to win out and then also have Clemson go undefeated and win the ACC.
Michigan could possibly be in the hunt if their only loss is to Ohio State and the Buckeyes win the Big 10 with 1 loss. Ohio State doesn't get in without winning the Big 10 title, which means winning out. And if Ohio State wins out, they're in the playoff.
A&M could get if they finish 11-1 but Bama wins the West and the SEC title game.
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What about an 11-1 Alabama if LSU beats them Saturday & then goes on to run the table to get into the SEC Championship game?

Let's say a 9-3 Florida (losses to LSU and FSU to end year) beats a 10-2 LSU, resulting in a 10-3 SEC Champ. Would the CFP committee take an 11-1 Alabama over both as the SEC representative?
 
The new ESPN pwer ranking has us staying at 20 while that G5 michigan school, also idle, jumped us and a few falling teams. Idots.
 
Buffnik said:
What about an 11-1 Alabama if LSU beats them Saturday & then goes on to run the table to get into the SEC Championship game?

Let's say a 9-3 Florida (losses to LSU and FSU to end year) beats a 10-2 LSU, resulting in a 10-3 SEC Champ. Would the CFP committee take an 11-1 Alabama over both as the SEC representative?
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Yes to the bolded.
 
Duff Man said:
The chaos begins if Bama loses. Good luck sorting out that mess.
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Bama can afford a loss and likely still be fine. If they lose to LSU they still win the West if they win all their other games. Even if they lose to Auburn they would still win the West if it ends in a 3-way tie with Bama, Auburn, and A&M, but they would lose out to Auburn if Auburn beats Bama and just those 2 teams end up with 1 loss. Where they would probably miss out on the playoff is if they got upset in the SEC Championship game since that would be a bad loss since nobody in the East is very good.
 
How long before we see an 8 team playoff?
P5 champs get auto-bid, highest ranked G5 gets a bid, plus 2 wild cards....

Then we go all the way to a 16 team playoff, 10 conference champions and 6 wild cards....
 
jkppkjjkp said:
How long before we see an 8 team playoff?
P5 champs get auto-bid, highest ranked G5 gets a bid, plus 2 wild cards....

Then we go all the way to a 16 team playoff, 10 conference champions and 6 wild cards....
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No way would the P5 share revenue to that degree.
 
JOEinDenver said:
Interesting


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Not surprising that people would go off on that, especially if their team wasn't ranked highly.

The only thing that I would take from that is that, simplistic as it is, that's yet another non-voter based ranking that has CU much higher than the polls. The one thing I will always hate about polls is their inertia. Teams in the preseason polls are so much more likely to be given the benefit of the doubt throughout the season. (Exhibit A: Ole Miss)
 
Highlander said:
It really seems like the Big 12 goes out of their way to rig the schedule so the bottom half of the league teams play the top half of the league teams to open the season. This artificially inflates the record of the "good" teams, and now they are "top" teams that just happen to be beating up on each other.

Smart, but I have caught on to their act. **** the Big 12.
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**** the Big 12 and **** Bailer
 
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