Colorado Schedule Comparison Analysis

[TZISKIN]

I've been going through some research lately to figure out where exactly we sit in the tourney committee's eyes (in my opinion, of course) at this point in the season, and used last year's schedule and results as a barometer. Let me first start off by saying I would VERY, VERY surprised to see this team in a position to be on the bubble as the season winds down for a variety of factors, some of which you will see in this data. However, there is a lot of excitement around the program right now and I figured this would be of some interest to many people who follow CU Basketball like I do...

Some key notes from the data...

Non-Conference RPI Top 300 games:
2011 - 8/15 (53.33%) - 4 RPI Top 300 wins
2012 - 10/12 (83.33%) - 6 RPI Top 300 wins

Conference RPI Top 50 games:
2011 - 10/19 (52.63%) - 5 RPI Top 50 wins
2012 - 2/18 (11.11%)

Conference RPI Top 150 games:
2011 - 14/19 (73.68%) - 9 RPI Top 150 wins
2012 - 9/18 (50.00%)

Overall, last year's team was 10-8 against RPI Top 150 opponents, this year, we are currently 3-4 with 8 games remaining.

As far as postseason play is concerned... we are currently sitting at 11-4 with 15 games remaining... we'd need a 15-15 record to be considered for NIT play. Interestingly, we have 6 home games remaining against the following opponents:

Arizona St - 216
Arizona - 69
Oregon St - 104
Oregon - 73
Stanford - 31
Cal - 45

In addition, we have away games against the following below 150 RPI schools...

@USC - 205
@ASU - 216
@Utah - 273

Obviously, with our inconsistency, I'm not about to guarantee we get to that magical 15 win spot, but you'd think we could find 4 wins fairly easily out of those 9 games.

I can't seem to figure out how to post a spreadsheet, if someone can direct me I'll post the data for you guys to check out.

 

[jgisland]

just copy and paste the info from the spreadsheet, it pretty much will format itself into cells. don't try to attach or upload the spreadsheet.

 

[TZISKIN]

Link is here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av0cgDI3sG7OdDVfc19COFUtTUNnTUtTTUs5RWE5ZEE

 

[TZISKIN]

Think its working, thanks for the help everyone. Hope it leads to some cool discussion.

 

[RumblinBuff]

Toss it in a google docs sheet, and link it.

 

[jgisland]

the good thing is cu's rpi is moving in the right direction but the p12 is probably going to beat each other up and it is going to be tough to climb much without a W against CAL or Arizona.

 

[jgisland]

I took the projections from kenpom.com and broke them up looking at what CU needs to do to get to 15 wins. I broke these games up into Wins, Toss Up and Losses. I considered a Win any game that has a 70% or more probability of winning, a Toss Up anything from 31% to 69% winning and a loss as anything with a 30% or less chance of winning (these breakdowns are random, you could move that CAL home game into the toss up category and the Oregon home game into the W column and make this look even better).

Basically there are 2 guaranteed wins, 6 losses and 7 toss ups. Of those toss ups 4 are at home and 3 on the road. So if CU actually wins their 2 guaranteed games, holds home court on the toss ups and loses the rest they should get to 17 wins and NIT eligible.

	Opponent		Date	KP Rank	RPI	Projected score	% chance to Win
Wins	Arizona St.	Home	Thu Jan 19	164	216	W, 70-61	80%
	Utah	Away	Sat Feb 18	324	273	W, 68-54	91%
Toss Up	Arizona	Home	Sat Jan 21	47	69	L, 64-63	46%
	Southern California	Away	Thu Jan 26	148	205	L, 56-55	50%
	Oregon St.	Home	Thu Feb 2	62	104	W, 74-73	53%
	Oregon	Home	Sat Feb 4	112	73	W, 71-66	67%
	Arizona St.	Away	Sat Feb 11	164	216	W, 66-64	56%
	Stanford	Home	Thu Feb 23	38	31	L, 64-63	43%
	Oregon	Away	Thu Mar 1	112	73	L, 70-67	39%
Losses	California	Away	Thu Jan 12	19	45	L, 73-60	12%
	Stanford	Away	Sat Jan 14	38	31	L, 68-59	19%
	UCLA	Away	Sat Jan 28	63	135	L, 69-63	27%
	Arizona	Away	Thu Feb 9	47	69	L, 68-60	21%
	California	Home	Sun Feb 26	19	45	L, 69-63	30%
	Oregon St.	Away	Sat Mar 3	62	104	L, 77-70	26%

Ken Pomeroy's projections are eerily similar to the vegas line spreads which are regarded as the best predictors.

 

[sackman]

If we lose to Southern Cal - at home or the road - we're toast. Those are two games we should win easily.

 

[TZISKIN]

If we lose to Southern Cal - at home or the road - we're toast. Those are two games we should win easily.

We don't play USC at home... only on the road, and there is no such thing as an EASY road win for this team, it's tough to win on the road in college basketball and I'll take them whenever I can get them

 

[Darth Snow]

wow. 12% and 19% on this weekend's games. OUCH

 

[TZISKIN]

Additional Notes:

Opponent RPI Averages by Season:
Note: D2 opponents given a standard RPI rating of 400

2011
NonConference - 223.67
Big XII - 64.47
Overall - 126.67

2012
NonConference - 173.58
Pac12 - 124.06
Overall - 143.87

 

[Darth Snow]

well, we got our noncon close to where it needs to be... too bad our conference has gone to ****.