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This Week’s “T.I.P.S.” for the Buffs’ final 2018 attempt at win No. 6
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Welcome to the Kurt Roper led CU football team.
The Roper Buffs are 0-0. These are not the same Buffs who finished the Mike MacIntyre era on a six-game losing streak … or, at least we hope that’s not the case.
All is fresh and new in the CU locker room. “I think our guys are working hard,” said Roper. “I think they are taking the right approach to play a good football team. They have been a lot of fun to work with.”
“We’re happy,” wide receiver K.D. Nixon said. “Our vibe is totally different. I love it.”
There is new enthusiasm as to the future of the program, a future which hopefully begins this week, and not in 2019.
Las Vegas isn’t buying into the Kurt Roper Buffs, however. The line for the California game opened with the Bears an 11.5-point favorites, and that line has moved up to 12.5 points since Sunday.
Senior Travon McMillian said the reality at this point is that “we have to move on and focus on Cal. That’s our main focus right now as a team.”
The real question: How focused can the Buffs really be?
Here are this week’s “T.I.P.S.” for CU’s regular season finale …
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Colorado v. California … Saturday, 5:00 p.m. MT, Pac-12 Networks
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T – Talent
In five of its last six games, the Cal offense has scored fewer than 20 points … which gives Buff fans hope.
After utilizing three different quarterbacks to open the season, the Bears have settled upon freshman Chase Garbers as their starter. Garbers has all of 1,100 yards passing this season (Steven Montez has 2,679), with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions (Montez: 17 touchdowns with six interceptions).
The real threat on offense for Cal is running back Patrick Laird. The senior leads the team in rushing (771 yards and five touchdowns), receptions (43), receiving touchdowns (3), and is third on the team in receiving yards (269).
Contain Laird, and you have a chance at containing the California offense.
The real problem for the Buffs … a team which scored seven points against Washington State (297 total yards on offense) and seven points against Utah (196 total yards), is the Cal defense.
The Bears, in their past three games, have held No. 12 Washington to 10 points (a 12-10 win), Washington State to 19 points (a 19-13 loss) and USC to 14 points (a 15-14 win), with the Washington State and USC games on the road.
“Justin (Wilcox) and Tim (DeRuyter) do a really good job of putting in a system,” said CU coach Kurt Roper. “When you watch them play defense, there are 11 guys tied together knowing exactly what the other guy is supposed to be doing. They know where they are supposed to fit on any call.”
The Colorado offense may have more success on the scoreboard against Cal that it did against the Washington State and Utah defenses … but it’s hard to see how.
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I – Intangibles
Welcome to “Hell if I Know” territory.
How will the Buff players react to having their coach fired with one game remaining on the schedule?
Who knows …
Senior linebacker Drew Lewis told the Daily Camera that the past couple of days have been “an emotional roller-coaster,” but that he knows how coach MacIntyre would want them to approach this week.
“What we do know for a fact is that he’d want us to finish the season well, not necessarily for him – ideally we want to do it for him – but just to finish this last game with the win and secure the bowl bid is the most he can ask for us,” Lewis said. “He’s definitely still hoping for the best for us. We know he’s going to be watching us and we’re going to try to do it for him.”
Then there are two questions which are unanswerable, but need to be asked:
— Do the Buff players really want to win this game? Sure, a bowl bid would be a nice reward, but is this team really up for 15 more practices with an interim head coach and lame duck staff? It’s a short week – with travel and Thanksgiving – and it would only be human nature for the Buffs to be distracted. A distracted team will be ill-prepared for a 6-4 Cal team which is looking to build on recent success, and which still has a great deal to play for (rivalry game against Stanford followed by a bowl game); and
— Perhaps an even better question … Does the remaining coaching staff really want to win this game? College football is a business, and there are almost a dozen coaches who just lost their jobs. Mike MacIntyre has a golden parachute, but, for most of the assistants, it’s on to the next opportunity with no guarantees of employment or income. If you were an assistant coach at Colorado, would you be hitting the film room, trying to find a way to beat Cal? Or would you be working the phones, trying to find a new job?
If the Buffs were to defeat Cal, the situation gets even more complicated for the coaching staff. Now there are 15 more practices, and another game to prepare for … all for an employer who has publicly declared it doesn’t want you. Fifteen more practices, during a time when the game of assistant coach musical chairs is in full swing, a time when you don’t want to be caught without a seat when the music stops playing.
I am not suggesting that the CU coaching staff will be anything but professional this week. I am confident they will do their best to help develop a game plan which will give the Buffs their best chance at victory.
I am suggesting, however, that there are many moving pieces here, and that there are good reasons why CU is an almost two-touchdown underdog to a Cal team which lost to UCLA, at home, 37-7 just over a month ago.
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P – Preparation/Schedule
Smoke from fires shouldn’t be a factor Saturday, as northern California will be experience rain showers from Wednesday to Friday. Fortunately for the players and fans, the rain is supposed to subside, with the forecast for 61-degrees and partly cloudy skies in Berkeley on Saturday.
So, the game should be played in normal conditions.
It’s just that the conditions are anything but normal.
While Colorado is playing with an interim coach, and all that brings with it to the table, the Bears are also a bit off-schedule.
Cal’s home game against Stanford, the “Big Game”, was scheduled to be played last weekend, but was postponed to poor air quality in Northern California brought on by wildfires.
Since Cal and Stanford had already been eliminated from contention in the Pac-12 North, they will be able to play Dec. 1, the day after the conference championship game will be played in nearby Santa Clara.
The decision was in the making for several days before the game was officially postponed last Friday, giving Cal a de facto bye week while Colorado was facing Utah.
Any weekend off gives a team a chance to heal up and rest. The weekend off also gave Cal and its coaches a few extra days to prepare for the Buffs.
Both Colorado and Cal had a bye week on September 22nd, a break between the non-conference and conference schedules. Since then, the Buffs have played every weekend, with the Cal game representing the ninth straight weekend of action.
It was supposed to be the same for Cal, but then it wasn’t.
Advantage … California.
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S – Statistics
— CU sophomore wide receiver Laviska Shenault would be leading the nation in receptions per game (79, or 9.87/game) and would be fourth in the nation in receiving yards per game (946, or 118.3/game), but he currently does not qualify for the NCAA rankings. If Shenault plays against Cal, he will have played in nine of CU’s 12 games, and will be again qualified for national rankings;
— Running back Travon McMillian is 43rd in the nation in rushing yard per game (86.5 yds/game), and is 36th in the nation in rushing yards (951);
— As pointed out in last week’s Friday Fast Facts, if Shenault goes over 1,000 yards receiving (54 yards to go) and McMillian goes over 1,000 yards rushing (49 to go), it will mark the first time in Colorado history that the Buffs have produced a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000 yard receiver in the same season;
— Ronnie Blackmon is 23rd in the nation in punt returns (9.9 yards/return);
— After facing the 39th-ranked defense in the nation in scoring defense (Washington State) and the 16th-ranked defense in the nation in scoring defense (Utah), the Buffs, who scored exactly seven points against both the Cougars and Utes, will now be facing the 28th-ranked defense in the nation in Cal.
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Prediction …
If you are looking for positive precedent for the Buffs this weekend, look no further than CU’s 2010 season.
That November, Dan Hawkins was fired with three games remaining on the schedule. Those Buffs, which had lost five games in a row, bounced back to defeat Iowa State (34-14) and Kansas State (44-36) under interim head coach Brian Cabral.
Could the 2018 Colorado team receive a similar bounce, overcoming the distractions associated with their coach being fired, and find a way to defeat California?
Sure.
But I’m not seeing it.
I can see the Colorado defense playing fairly well. The Cal offense is worse than CU’s (Buffs are still, despite recent woes, averaging almost 400 yards per game this season, while Cal is 103rd in total offense, at 363.9 yards per game), and hasn’t broken the 20-point barrier in its past three games.
That being said, Cal, despite scoring 12, 13, and 15 points the past three games, won two of them, defeating Washington, 12-10, and USC, 15-14 (and holding down the dynamic Washington State offense in a 19-13 loss).
The Buffs managed only one touchdown in each of the past two games. Without a defensive or special teams touchdown, the Colorado offense may be hard pressed to even match that production against the Cal defense.
… California 24, Colorado 10 …
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Previous predictions …
Prediction: Utah 24, Colorado 14 … Actual: Utah 30, Colorado 7
Prediction: Washington State 42, Colorado 28 … Actual: Washington State 31, Colorado 7
Prediction: Arizona 38, Colorado 24 … Actual: Arizona 42, Colorado 34
Prediction: Colorado 42, Oregon State 17 … Actual: Oregon State 41, Colorado 34 OT
Prediction: Washington 31, Colorado 14 … Actual: Washington 27, Colorado 13
Prediction: USC 24, Colorado 20 … Actual: USC 31, Colorado 20
Prediction: Colorado 34, Arizona State 27 … Actual: Colorado 28, Arizona State 21
Prediction: Colorado 30, UCLA 21 … Actual: Colorado 38, UCLA 16
Prediction: Colorado 48, New Hampshire 10 … Actual: Colorado 45, New Hampshire 14
Prediction: Colorado 31, Nebraska 24 … Actual: Colorado 33, Nebraska 28
Prediction: Colorado 41, Colorado State 24 … Actual: Colorado 45, Colorado State 13
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Stuart
Continue reading...
This Week’s “T.I.P.S.” for the Buffs’ final 2018 attempt at win No. 6
—
Welcome to the Kurt Roper led CU football team.
The Roper Buffs are 0-0. These are not the same Buffs who finished the Mike MacIntyre era on a six-game losing streak … or, at least we hope that’s not the case.
All is fresh and new in the CU locker room. “I think our guys are working hard,” said Roper. “I think they are taking the right approach to play a good football team. They have been a lot of fun to work with.”
“We’re happy,” wide receiver K.D. Nixon said. “Our vibe is totally different. I love it.”
There is new enthusiasm as to the future of the program, a future which hopefully begins this week, and not in 2019.
Las Vegas isn’t buying into the Kurt Roper Buffs, however. The line for the California game opened with the Bears an 11.5-point favorites, and that line has moved up to 12.5 points since Sunday.
Senior Travon McMillian said the reality at this point is that “we have to move on and focus on Cal. That’s our main focus right now as a team.”
The real question: How focused can the Buffs really be?
Here are this week’s “T.I.P.S.” for CU’s regular season finale …
—
Colorado v. California … Saturday, 5:00 p.m. MT, Pac-12 Networks
—
T – Talent
In five of its last six games, the Cal offense has scored fewer than 20 points … which gives Buff fans hope.
After utilizing three different quarterbacks to open the season, the Bears have settled upon freshman Chase Garbers as their starter. Garbers has all of 1,100 yards passing this season (Steven Montez has 2,679), with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions (Montez: 17 touchdowns with six interceptions).
The real threat on offense for Cal is running back Patrick Laird. The senior leads the team in rushing (771 yards and five touchdowns), receptions (43), receiving touchdowns (3), and is third on the team in receiving yards (269).
Contain Laird, and you have a chance at containing the California offense.
The real problem for the Buffs … a team which scored seven points against Washington State (297 total yards on offense) and seven points against Utah (196 total yards), is the Cal defense.
The Bears, in their past three games, have held No. 12 Washington to 10 points (a 12-10 win), Washington State to 19 points (a 19-13 loss) and USC to 14 points (a 15-14 win), with the Washington State and USC games on the road.
“Justin (Wilcox) and Tim (DeRuyter) do a really good job of putting in a system,” said CU coach Kurt Roper. “When you watch them play defense, there are 11 guys tied together knowing exactly what the other guy is supposed to be doing. They know where they are supposed to fit on any call.”
The Colorado offense may have more success on the scoreboard against Cal that it did against the Washington State and Utah defenses … but it’s hard to see how.
—
I – Intangibles
Welcome to “Hell if I Know” territory.
How will the Buff players react to having their coach fired with one game remaining on the schedule?
Who knows …
Senior linebacker Drew Lewis told the Daily Camera that the past couple of days have been “an emotional roller-coaster,” but that he knows how coach MacIntyre would want them to approach this week.
“What we do know for a fact is that he’d want us to finish the season well, not necessarily for him – ideally we want to do it for him – but just to finish this last game with the win and secure the bowl bid is the most he can ask for us,” Lewis said. “He’s definitely still hoping for the best for us. We know he’s going to be watching us and we’re going to try to do it for him.”
Then there are two questions which are unanswerable, but need to be asked:
— Do the Buff players really want to win this game? Sure, a bowl bid would be a nice reward, but is this team really up for 15 more practices with an interim head coach and lame duck staff? It’s a short week – with travel and Thanksgiving – and it would only be human nature for the Buffs to be distracted. A distracted team will be ill-prepared for a 6-4 Cal team which is looking to build on recent success, and which still has a great deal to play for (rivalry game against Stanford followed by a bowl game); and
— Perhaps an even better question … Does the remaining coaching staff really want to win this game? College football is a business, and there are almost a dozen coaches who just lost their jobs. Mike MacIntyre has a golden parachute, but, for most of the assistants, it’s on to the next opportunity with no guarantees of employment or income. If you were an assistant coach at Colorado, would you be hitting the film room, trying to find a way to beat Cal? Or would you be working the phones, trying to find a new job?
If the Buffs were to defeat Cal, the situation gets even more complicated for the coaching staff. Now there are 15 more practices, and another game to prepare for … all for an employer who has publicly declared it doesn’t want you. Fifteen more practices, during a time when the game of assistant coach musical chairs is in full swing, a time when you don’t want to be caught without a seat when the music stops playing.
I am not suggesting that the CU coaching staff will be anything but professional this week. I am confident they will do their best to help develop a game plan which will give the Buffs their best chance at victory.
I am suggesting, however, that there are many moving pieces here, and that there are good reasons why CU is an almost two-touchdown underdog to a Cal team which lost to UCLA, at home, 37-7 just over a month ago.
—
P – Preparation/Schedule
Smoke from fires shouldn’t be a factor Saturday, as northern California will be experience rain showers from Wednesday to Friday. Fortunately for the players and fans, the rain is supposed to subside, with the forecast for 61-degrees and partly cloudy skies in Berkeley on Saturday.
So, the game should be played in normal conditions.
It’s just that the conditions are anything but normal.
While Colorado is playing with an interim coach, and all that brings with it to the table, the Bears are also a bit off-schedule.
Cal’s home game against Stanford, the “Big Game”, was scheduled to be played last weekend, but was postponed to poor air quality in Northern California brought on by wildfires.
Since Cal and Stanford had already been eliminated from contention in the Pac-12 North, they will be able to play Dec. 1, the day after the conference championship game will be played in nearby Santa Clara.
The decision was in the making for several days before the game was officially postponed last Friday, giving Cal a de facto bye week while Colorado was facing Utah.
Any weekend off gives a team a chance to heal up and rest. The weekend off also gave Cal and its coaches a few extra days to prepare for the Buffs.
Both Colorado and Cal had a bye week on September 22nd, a break between the non-conference and conference schedules. Since then, the Buffs have played every weekend, with the Cal game representing the ninth straight weekend of action.
It was supposed to be the same for Cal, but then it wasn’t.
Advantage … California.
—
S – Statistics
— CU sophomore wide receiver Laviska Shenault would be leading the nation in receptions per game (79, or 9.87/game) and would be fourth in the nation in receiving yards per game (946, or 118.3/game), but he currently does not qualify for the NCAA rankings. If Shenault plays against Cal, he will have played in nine of CU’s 12 games, and will be again qualified for national rankings;
— Running back Travon McMillian is 43rd in the nation in rushing yard per game (86.5 yds/game), and is 36th in the nation in rushing yards (951);
— As pointed out in last week’s Friday Fast Facts, if Shenault goes over 1,000 yards receiving (54 yards to go) and McMillian goes over 1,000 yards rushing (49 to go), it will mark the first time in Colorado history that the Buffs have produced a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000 yard receiver in the same season;
— Ronnie Blackmon is 23rd in the nation in punt returns (9.9 yards/return);
— After facing the 39th-ranked defense in the nation in scoring defense (Washington State) and the 16th-ranked defense in the nation in scoring defense (Utah), the Buffs, who scored exactly seven points against both the Cougars and Utes, will now be facing the 28th-ranked defense in the nation in Cal.
—
Prediction …
If you are looking for positive precedent for the Buffs this weekend, look no further than CU’s 2010 season.
That November, Dan Hawkins was fired with three games remaining on the schedule. Those Buffs, which had lost five games in a row, bounced back to defeat Iowa State (34-14) and Kansas State (44-36) under interim head coach Brian Cabral.
Could the 2018 Colorado team receive a similar bounce, overcoming the distractions associated with their coach being fired, and find a way to defeat California?
Sure.
But I’m not seeing it.
I can see the Colorado defense playing fairly well. The Cal offense is worse than CU’s (Buffs are still, despite recent woes, averaging almost 400 yards per game this season, while Cal is 103rd in total offense, at 363.9 yards per game), and hasn’t broken the 20-point barrier in its past three games.
That being said, Cal, despite scoring 12, 13, and 15 points the past three games, won two of them, defeating Washington, 12-10, and USC, 15-14 (and holding down the dynamic Washington State offense in a 19-13 loss).
The Buffs managed only one touchdown in each of the past two games. Without a defensive or special teams touchdown, the Colorado offense may be hard pressed to even match that production against the Cal defense.
… California 24, Colorado 10 …
—
Previous predictions …
Prediction: Utah 24, Colorado 14 … Actual: Utah 30, Colorado 7
Prediction: Washington State 42, Colorado 28 … Actual: Washington State 31, Colorado 7
Prediction: Arizona 38, Colorado 24 … Actual: Arizona 42, Colorado 34
Prediction: Colorado 42, Oregon State 17 … Actual: Oregon State 41, Colorado 34 OT
Prediction: Washington 31, Colorado 14 … Actual: Washington 27, Colorado 13
Prediction: USC 24, Colorado 20 … Actual: USC 31, Colorado 20
Prediction: Colorado 34, Arizona State 27 … Actual: Colorado 28, Arizona State 21
Prediction: Colorado 30, UCLA 21 … Actual: Colorado 38, UCLA 16
Prediction: Colorado 48, New Hampshire 10 … Actual: Colorado 45, New Hampshire 14
Prediction: Colorado 31, Nebraska 24 … Actual: Colorado 33, Nebraska 28
Prediction: Colorado 41, Colorado State 24 … Actual: Colorado 45, Colorado State 13
–
—-
Stuart
Continue reading...