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Colorado v. Arizona Preview: “T.I.P.S.” for the Buffs and the Wildcats
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Hard to believe, but after Saturday night, half of the 2017 regular season will be in the books.
Yet it seems like the Buff Nation is still waiting for the season to start.
Waiting for the Colorado offense, with its nine returning starters and “second-best in the nation” receiving corps, to dominate opposing defenses.
Waiting for the Buffs to play a complete game, one with few (if any) penalties, one with few (if any) turnovers, one with multiple long scoring plays, coupled with multiple long scoring drives to wear down an inferior opponent.
This weekend’s opponent is an Arizona team the Buffs beat, on the road, 49-24, last November. Just ten games ago, Colorado raced out to a 28-10 halftime lead over Arizona, and were never really threatened in the game, despite being out-gained by the Wildcats, 417-388, in total yards.
Colorado is a touchdown favorite over a team which hasn’t won a Pac-12 game on the road since … well, since they beat the Buffs in Boulder in 2015. Since that 38-31 win over the Buffs, the Wildcats have gone 2-13 in Pac-12 play, 0-7 on the road.
CU fans can only hope and trust that those Arizona trends will continue …
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This week’s “T.I.P.S.” for CU v. Arizona … Saturday, 6:00 p.m., MT, Pac-12 Networks
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T – Talent
If it’s another Pac-12 game, it’s another week to talk about the opposing quarterback.
This week, it’s dual-threat quarterback Brandon Dawkins. In four games, Dawkins has completed 66-of-105 pass attempts for 670 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. Dawkins is also Arizona’s leading rusher, with 52 attempts for 341 yards (6.6 yards per carry) and six touchdowns.
“You always have to account for him in the run game, you always have to account for him in your pass rush lanes, making sure you’re not getting too far up the field and giving him a lane to tuck it and run it,” Buffs’ defensive coordinator D.J. Eliot said. “Those things are always in consideration in your game plan and your techniques for that week for an athletic quarterback.”
In last November’s 49-24 CU win, though, the Buffs contained Dawkins, holding him to 9-of-19 completions for 107 yards passing, together with 18 carries for 76 yards.
The Arizona offense is most effective when it runs the ball, with the Wildcats having posted more rushing touchdowns in four games (15) than the touchdowns the Colorado offense has posted, total, in five games (13).
When Dawkins does hand off, it’s usually to freshman running back J.J. Taylor, who has 49 carries for 229 yards on the season. Senior Nick Wilson, who rushed for 1,375 yards as a freshman in 2014, has been relegated to backup duty, with 34 carries for 171 yards to date.
“The key is if they can get the running back going, you just can’t stop them,” said Mike MacIntyre. “We’ve got to somehow keep the running back from getting going and then we’ve got a chance.”
The Arizona defense in 2017 has been on par with that of Colorado, with the Wildcats giving up 376.0 total yards per game (63rd nationally), compared to the Buffs’ 366.8 yards per game (58th). Arizona is surrendering 22.3 points per game (48th nationally), while Colorado is giving up 18.2 points per game (22nd).
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I – Intangibles
Mike MacIntyre detractors believe that the CU/Arizona game is a make-or-break game for the Colorado coaching staff.
A loss to Arizona – and the likely losing record coming the end of November that such a loss would portend – will certainly send the Buff Nation into a funk. Colorado, however, is not going to fire Mike MacIntyre this fall.
The same might not be true for Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez. The well-traveled Rodriguez, who had a successful run at West Virginia and a disastrous three years at Michigan before landing in Tucson, is in his sixth season coaching the Wildcats. Rodriguez is 38-31 at Arizona, 18-27 in Pac-12 conference games. After claiming the Pac-12 South with a 10-4 record in 2014, the Wildcats have gone backwards, going 7-6 in 2015 and 3-9 last year.
There is the feeling that Rodriguez needs to get back to a bowl game this fall (at the very least) in order to save his job. With three of Arizona’s final four games on the road (at USC, at Oregon, at Arizona State), the Colorado game might just be a make-or-break game for coach Rodriguez.
That’s not to say that there isn’t plenty at stake for the Buffs as well.
There is more than a little consternation that the Colorado offense has not produced the numbers on offense which were expected six weeks ago.
“I believe we’re close to that breakthrough-type game,” Buffs co-offensive coordinator Darrin Chiaverini said after Monday’s practice. “But at the end of the day, you can’t have drops, you can’t miss reads, you can’t hurt yourself with penalties. … I’m a firm believer you are what your record says you are and right now we’re 3-2. We have to find ways to score points and get better.”
Chiaverini’s words were about the Buffs, but his head and heart had to be elsewhere. Chiaverini’s brother-in-law, along with his wife’s best friend, were victims in the Las Vegas shooting Sunday night.
“He went home early after they found out,” said MacIntyre of Chiaverini. “I told him the other day, whatever he needs to do, go do it. If he needs to go, he can go for sure. I’m going to let him take it. They’re could be or they’re could not be. It depends on what their family decides. He’s completely free to go do what he needs to do. It’s a lot more important than football. Other people are ready to jump in”.
Certainly, the absence of Chiaverini this week could have an impact on the CU offensive preparations for Arizona.
Clearly, however, that should be the last of our concerns here … Thoughts and prayers for Darrin Chiaverini and his family …
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P – Preparation / Schedule
Arizona has played only four games to date, defeating Northern Arizona and UTEP, while losing to Houston and Utah. The Wildcats posted big offensive numbers against the Lumberjacks (62-24) and Miners (63-16), but struggled to score against the Houston Cougars (19-16) and Utah Utes (30-24), with both losses coming at home.
To hear Mike MacIntyre tell it, the Wildcats are just a bounce or two away from being undefeated and ranked.
“Arizona is playing really well. They could easily be 4-0, but they’re 2-2,” said MacIntyre. “They’ve gotten beat by two good football teams that have played well for the last few years. It’s going to be a very tough contest. They’re much improved on defense compared to where they were last year. Offensively, [quarterback Brandon] Dawkins reminds me so much of Colin Kaepernick when I coached against him when I was at San Jose State.”
Of course, if you want to look at it the another way, Arizona’s only wins have come against a Big Sky Conference team and an 0-5 UTEP squad which earlier this week became the first FBS team this fall to have their head coach resign.
Glass half full; glass half empty.
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The last game Arizona played was two weeks ago against Utah, with the Wildcats enjoying a bye week before coming to Boulder.
A week off is almost always considered an advantage, with the resting team getting players back who have lingering injuries, while giving the coaching staff extra time to devise a game plan. While it won’t be obvious to fans in the stands, the Buffs will be facing different formations and personnel groupings early in the game, with the Wildcats attempting to exploit assumed weaknesses.
While the Buffs are still healing from Saturday’s game, they don’t sound like not having the weekend off is a great disadvantage compared to the lounging Wildcats. “We’re definitely more motivated. You can tell at practice that everybody is locked in and ready to do everything we’re supposed to do”, said safety Evan Worthington. “We need to get this ‘W’, that’s all we’re thinking about right now.”
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S – Statistics
— As upset as Buff fans have been in the inability of the Colorado offense to score touchdowns in the red zone (18 trips – 8 touchdowns; 7 field goals; 3 failures to score), the Buff defense has been just as stingy against CU’s opponents (13 trips – 5 touchdowns; 5 field goals; 3 failures to score);
— Phillip Lindsay is well on his way to becoming the first running back in CU history to post back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, with 539 yards rushing in five games. The hope for CU to have a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver for the first time ever, however, is waning. The Buffs’ leading receiver in yardage is Devin Ross, with 327 yards, which equates to about an 800-yard receiving campaign;
— Colorado has only had three offensive plays going for over 40 yards this fall, while surrendering eight;
— For the offensive coordinators (and yes, that’s plural) aren’t making adjustments crowd … Colorado has out-scored its opponents 76-41 in the first half of games this season (45-14 in the first quarter), but only 44-42 in the second half;
— Freshman kicker James Stefanou is 10-of-11 on field goal attempts this season, the third-best beginning in field goal makes by any kicker in CU annals; only Jeremy Aldrich (1996-97) and Jeremy Flores (2000-01) are better, as they both made 13 of their first 14 field goal tries.
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Bottom Line … Neither team would describe this weekend’s game as a desperation game. It’s the sixth game of the season for Colorado; game five for Arizona.
But many fans – of both teams – would describe this as a desperation game (as does Jon Wilner – scroll down to “Desperate times: Arizona at Colorado“).
If Colorado loses to Arizona at home this weekend, the Buffs will be 0-3 in Pac-12 play, and there will be only one opponent left on the schedule (Oregon State next weekend) which will an underdog to the Buffs.
While it may not be time to push the panic button, it wouldn’t hurt to have hit handy Saturday night.
“We’re going to be fine,” Phillip Lindsay reassures us. “Last year, we had a lot of the bounces go our way. Now, we have to make those bounces go our way again. We’ve got a lot of big games coming up. We’ll get some bounces our way.”
Another captain, defensive end Leo Jackson, agrees. “Luckily we have leaders on the team, like myself, some of the other captains and the seniors that have been through it, when we had two-win seasons and three-win seasons,” he said. “That’s the biggest thing. We’re trying to keep the young guys’ heads in it and let them know that losses happen; you have to bounce back from it.”
Jackson believes that good team chemistry will help the Buffs bounce back.
“It’s the brotherhood aspect,” he said. “We know we’re going to fight for each other.”
That’s all well and good, but CU fans have been waiting for six weeks for the Buffs to get their collective act together.
If not now … when?
Last weekend, the Buffs had five red zone opportunities, coming away with one touchdown, three field goals, and a botched fake field goal (CU’s other score came on a 21-yard pass from Montez to Lindsay).
It says here that against Arizona the Buffs will have at least one score from outside the red zone, and get at least five trips into the red zone. This time the CU offense will generate three touchdowns and two field goals.
Not a great improvement over one touchdown and three field goals from last weekend, but against a mediocre Arizona team, it will be good enough …
Colorado 34, Arizona 24
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Stuart
Continue reading...
Colorado v. Arizona Preview: “T.I.P.S.” for the Buffs and the Wildcats
—
Hard to believe, but after Saturday night, half of the 2017 regular season will be in the books.
Yet it seems like the Buff Nation is still waiting for the season to start.
Waiting for the Colorado offense, with its nine returning starters and “second-best in the nation” receiving corps, to dominate opposing defenses.
Waiting for the Buffs to play a complete game, one with few (if any) penalties, one with few (if any) turnovers, one with multiple long scoring plays, coupled with multiple long scoring drives to wear down an inferior opponent.
This weekend’s opponent is an Arizona team the Buffs beat, on the road, 49-24, last November. Just ten games ago, Colorado raced out to a 28-10 halftime lead over Arizona, and were never really threatened in the game, despite being out-gained by the Wildcats, 417-388, in total yards.
Colorado is a touchdown favorite over a team which hasn’t won a Pac-12 game on the road since … well, since they beat the Buffs in Boulder in 2015. Since that 38-31 win over the Buffs, the Wildcats have gone 2-13 in Pac-12 play, 0-7 on the road.
CU fans can only hope and trust that those Arizona trends will continue …
—
This week’s “T.I.P.S.” for CU v. Arizona … Saturday, 6:00 p.m., MT, Pac-12 Networks
—
T – Talent
If it’s another Pac-12 game, it’s another week to talk about the opposing quarterback.
This week, it’s dual-threat quarterback Brandon Dawkins. In four games, Dawkins has completed 66-of-105 pass attempts for 670 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. Dawkins is also Arizona’s leading rusher, with 52 attempts for 341 yards (6.6 yards per carry) and six touchdowns.
“You always have to account for him in the run game, you always have to account for him in your pass rush lanes, making sure you’re not getting too far up the field and giving him a lane to tuck it and run it,” Buffs’ defensive coordinator D.J. Eliot said. “Those things are always in consideration in your game plan and your techniques for that week for an athletic quarterback.”
In last November’s 49-24 CU win, though, the Buffs contained Dawkins, holding him to 9-of-19 completions for 107 yards passing, together with 18 carries for 76 yards.
The Arizona offense is most effective when it runs the ball, with the Wildcats having posted more rushing touchdowns in four games (15) than the touchdowns the Colorado offense has posted, total, in five games (13).
When Dawkins does hand off, it’s usually to freshman running back J.J. Taylor, who has 49 carries for 229 yards on the season. Senior Nick Wilson, who rushed for 1,375 yards as a freshman in 2014, has been relegated to backup duty, with 34 carries for 171 yards to date.
“The key is if they can get the running back going, you just can’t stop them,” said Mike MacIntyre. “We’ve got to somehow keep the running back from getting going and then we’ve got a chance.”
The Arizona defense in 2017 has been on par with that of Colorado, with the Wildcats giving up 376.0 total yards per game (63rd nationally), compared to the Buffs’ 366.8 yards per game (58th). Arizona is surrendering 22.3 points per game (48th nationally), while Colorado is giving up 18.2 points per game (22nd).
—
I – Intangibles
Mike MacIntyre detractors believe that the CU/Arizona game is a make-or-break game for the Colorado coaching staff.
A loss to Arizona – and the likely losing record coming the end of November that such a loss would portend – will certainly send the Buff Nation into a funk. Colorado, however, is not going to fire Mike MacIntyre this fall.
The same might not be true for Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez. The well-traveled Rodriguez, who had a successful run at West Virginia and a disastrous three years at Michigan before landing in Tucson, is in his sixth season coaching the Wildcats. Rodriguez is 38-31 at Arizona, 18-27 in Pac-12 conference games. After claiming the Pac-12 South with a 10-4 record in 2014, the Wildcats have gone backwards, going 7-6 in 2015 and 3-9 last year.
There is the feeling that Rodriguez needs to get back to a bowl game this fall (at the very least) in order to save his job. With three of Arizona’s final four games on the road (at USC, at Oregon, at Arizona State), the Colorado game might just be a make-or-break game for coach Rodriguez.
That’s not to say that there isn’t plenty at stake for the Buffs as well.
There is more than a little consternation that the Colorado offense has not produced the numbers on offense which were expected six weeks ago.
“I believe we’re close to that breakthrough-type game,” Buffs co-offensive coordinator Darrin Chiaverini said after Monday’s practice. “But at the end of the day, you can’t have drops, you can’t miss reads, you can’t hurt yourself with penalties. … I’m a firm believer you are what your record says you are and right now we’re 3-2. We have to find ways to score points and get better.”
Chiaverini’s words were about the Buffs, but his head and heart had to be elsewhere. Chiaverini’s brother-in-law, along with his wife’s best friend, were victims in the Las Vegas shooting Sunday night.
“He went home early after they found out,” said MacIntyre of Chiaverini. “I told him the other day, whatever he needs to do, go do it. If he needs to go, he can go for sure. I’m going to let him take it. They’re could be or they’re could not be. It depends on what their family decides. He’s completely free to go do what he needs to do. It’s a lot more important than football. Other people are ready to jump in”.
Certainly, the absence of Chiaverini this week could have an impact on the CU offensive preparations for Arizona.
Clearly, however, that should be the last of our concerns here … Thoughts and prayers for Darrin Chiaverini and his family …
—
P – Preparation / Schedule
Arizona has played only four games to date, defeating Northern Arizona and UTEP, while losing to Houston and Utah. The Wildcats posted big offensive numbers against the Lumberjacks (62-24) and Miners (63-16), but struggled to score against the Houston Cougars (19-16) and Utah Utes (30-24), with both losses coming at home.
To hear Mike MacIntyre tell it, the Wildcats are just a bounce or two away from being undefeated and ranked.
“Arizona is playing really well. They could easily be 4-0, but they’re 2-2,” said MacIntyre. “They’ve gotten beat by two good football teams that have played well for the last few years. It’s going to be a very tough contest. They’re much improved on defense compared to where they were last year. Offensively, [quarterback Brandon] Dawkins reminds me so much of Colin Kaepernick when I coached against him when I was at San Jose State.”
Of course, if you want to look at it the another way, Arizona’s only wins have come against a Big Sky Conference team and an 0-5 UTEP squad which earlier this week became the first FBS team this fall to have their head coach resign.
Glass half full; glass half empty.
–
The last game Arizona played was two weeks ago against Utah, with the Wildcats enjoying a bye week before coming to Boulder.
A week off is almost always considered an advantage, with the resting team getting players back who have lingering injuries, while giving the coaching staff extra time to devise a game plan. While it won’t be obvious to fans in the stands, the Buffs will be facing different formations and personnel groupings early in the game, with the Wildcats attempting to exploit assumed weaknesses.
While the Buffs are still healing from Saturday’s game, they don’t sound like not having the weekend off is a great disadvantage compared to the lounging Wildcats. “We’re definitely more motivated. You can tell at practice that everybody is locked in and ready to do everything we’re supposed to do”, said safety Evan Worthington. “We need to get this ‘W’, that’s all we’re thinking about right now.”
—
S – Statistics
— As upset as Buff fans have been in the inability of the Colorado offense to score touchdowns in the red zone (18 trips – 8 touchdowns; 7 field goals; 3 failures to score), the Buff defense has been just as stingy against CU’s opponents (13 trips – 5 touchdowns; 5 field goals; 3 failures to score);
— Phillip Lindsay is well on his way to becoming the first running back in CU history to post back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, with 539 yards rushing in five games. The hope for CU to have a 1,000-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver for the first time ever, however, is waning. The Buffs’ leading receiver in yardage is Devin Ross, with 327 yards, which equates to about an 800-yard receiving campaign;
— Colorado has only had three offensive plays going for over 40 yards this fall, while surrendering eight;
— For the offensive coordinators (and yes, that’s plural) aren’t making adjustments crowd … Colorado has out-scored its opponents 76-41 in the first half of games this season (45-14 in the first quarter), but only 44-42 in the second half;
— Freshman kicker James Stefanou is 10-of-11 on field goal attempts this season, the third-best beginning in field goal makes by any kicker in CU annals; only Jeremy Aldrich (1996-97) and Jeremy Flores (2000-01) are better, as they both made 13 of their first 14 field goal tries.
—
Bottom Line … Neither team would describe this weekend’s game as a desperation game. It’s the sixth game of the season for Colorado; game five for Arizona.
But many fans – of both teams – would describe this as a desperation game (as does Jon Wilner – scroll down to “Desperate times: Arizona at Colorado“).
If Colorado loses to Arizona at home this weekend, the Buffs will be 0-3 in Pac-12 play, and there will be only one opponent left on the schedule (Oregon State next weekend) which will an underdog to the Buffs.
While it may not be time to push the panic button, it wouldn’t hurt to have hit handy Saturday night.
“We’re going to be fine,” Phillip Lindsay reassures us. “Last year, we had a lot of the bounces go our way. Now, we have to make those bounces go our way again. We’ve got a lot of big games coming up. We’ll get some bounces our way.”
Another captain, defensive end Leo Jackson, agrees. “Luckily we have leaders on the team, like myself, some of the other captains and the seniors that have been through it, when we had two-win seasons and three-win seasons,” he said. “That’s the biggest thing. We’re trying to keep the young guys’ heads in it and let them know that losses happen; you have to bounce back from it.”
Jackson believes that good team chemistry will help the Buffs bounce back.
“It’s the brotherhood aspect,” he said. “We know we’re going to fight for each other.”
That’s all well and good, but CU fans have been waiting for six weeks for the Buffs to get their collective act together.
If not now … when?
Last weekend, the Buffs had five red zone opportunities, coming away with one touchdown, three field goals, and a botched fake field goal (CU’s other score came on a 21-yard pass from Montez to Lindsay).
It says here that against Arizona the Buffs will have at least one score from outside the red zone, and get at least five trips into the red zone. This time the CU offense will generate three touchdowns and two field goals.
Not a great improvement over one touchdown and three field goals from last weekend, but against a mediocre Arizona team, it will be good enough …
Colorado 34, Arizona 24
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—–
Stuart
Continue reading...