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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

As crazy as it sounds, pretty much all of our Big12 counterparts really want Prime to Stay at Colorado for two key reasons

1. Ratings and Viewership that benefits everyone in the league
2. Because they are not convinced he is a good coach and that Colorado can dominate
They don't really care about #2.

They won't admit it to their boosters but they are perfectly happy to play for second place as long as the money is coming in, and the numbers are very clear that without the ratings that Colorado pulls in the B12 is worth much less in future media negotiations.

Many of these also found out that Colorado coming in was good for stadium ticket sales and thus for other stadium revenues as well.

Travis was worthy of his Heisman and if he hadn't been Shedeur would have been worthy of consideration but the real star of Colorado football is Prime, he is the one that moves the needle, love him or hate him.

With losing Texas and Oklahoma the B12 was without a marque program, one that people want to pay attention to, CU gives them that
 
Important to note that this covers the year ended 6/30/24. No Big XII revenue in there.
Agreed, the Big12 money plus our $2.5M signing bonus and other factors should be rolling in
Prime likely has all the numbers, so that could be meaningful to the negotiations
 
I'm pretty sure we had to pay money back to the Pac 12 or Networks? Due to some kind of mismanagement/incompetence by the Pac 12. Can't remember details but it was in the millions.
I think we already gave that up based on this lower distribution of about $5.3 M from just 2 years prior

Screenshot 2025-01-18 at 6.12.17 PM.png

EDIT: It is kind of hard to specifically figure out what the new Big12 Distributions will be, because it appears between $31M to $39M is possible, but that is way behind the $50M to $80M for B1G and SEC
 
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Gee. If only somebody had warned them that a bicoastal conference would be unwieldy and scheduling would be a pain in the ass.
 
Gee. If only somebody had warned them that a bicoastal conference would be unwieldy and scheduling would be a pain in the ass.
Fair in regards to UCLA, I don't think Cronin could have foreseen this when he took the job.

I think he's a good coach, having a bad year, and a bad time.

The unwieldy conferences may lose some coaching talent at the margins, when the Chip Kelly and Mick Cronin's of the world accept smaller salaries for saner travel schedules.
 
Fair in regards to UCLA, I don't think Cronin could have foreseen this when he took the job.

I think he's a good coach, having a bad year, and a bad time.

The unwieldy conferences may lose some coaching talent at the margins, when the Chip Kelly and Mick Cronin's of the world accept smaller salaries for saner travel schedules.
Yep. Cronin signed up for a job at the true basketball blue blood in the west, that even in down years was recognized as the marquee program west of the Mississippi along with Kansas. Most all of the advantages that come with that distinction have been erased with joining the Big10.

There definitely isn't a blue blood program in the desert, I want to make that clear.
 
Fair in regards to UCLA, I don't think Cronin could have foreseen this when he took the job.

I think he's a good coach, having a bad year, and a bad time.

The unwieldy conferences may lose some coaching talent at the margins, when the Chip Kelly and Mick Cronin's of the world accept smaller salaries for saner travel schedules.

Well, how else does one rehabilitate one's career after losing a lot/failing to win enough?

As the man said: When we play east of the Mississippi our record is below five hundred.

Eventually this problem will start to impact all 6 coastal former P12 teams. Once they fail to win consistently or lose when they shouldn't more regularly recruiting will drop off too. But hey! Check out our new locker room!
 
Lol


Goodfellas GIF
 
Besides the cash infusion from a Big 12 PE deal, the thing to watch closely is whether the deal alters the GOR duration and exit fees for member schools.
Yormark is looking for leverage.
If he has a deal on the table with a streaming giant (Netflix) as well as Verizon for example, this will help the Big12 with their negotiations with Fox and ESPN.
He wants to dance with many partners.
 
PE is all about slashing costs, boasting revenue, then turning their investment into a profit by selling.

What could possibly go wrong? 😆

If PE enters the equation in the college football world you should be extremely worried instead of giddy. You should expect your game day experience to go down, your costs to all go up, and a lot more content to be hidden behind a pay wall.
 
PE is all about slashing costs, boasting revenue, then turning their investment into a profit by selling.

What could possibly go wrong? 😆

If PE enters the equation in the college football world you should be extremely worried instead of giddy. You should expect your game day experience to go down, your costs to all go up, and a lot more content to be hidden behind a pay wall.
Not always, but mostly.

10-20% of the time PE is about bringing capital into a capital starved business, and then watching the business grow due to no longer being capital constrained.

Capital constrained doesn't really describe P4 college football, so your 80-90% model is likely the correct answer.
 
Not always, but mostly.

10-20% of the time PE is about bringing capital into a capital starved business, and then watching the business grow due to no longer being capital constrained.

Capital constrained doesn't really describe P4 college football, so your 80-90% model is likely the correct answer.
I mean, the Big 12 is definitely capital constrained relative to the B1G and SEC, which is the only reason PE is even being considered.
 
Not always, but mostly.

10-20% of the time PE is about bringing capital into a capital starved business, and then watching the business grow due to no longer being capital constrained.

Capital constrained doesn't really describe P4 college football, so your 80-90% model is likely the correct answer.
Yeah. I'd be much more on board with it if CU could find an institutional investor. Ironically, the best fit is probably a university endowment fund that is traditionally a hands-off investor which is looking for solid growth and ROI over decades and has zero interest in turn-and-burn style profiteering. Maybe CU's endowment should buy a stake in the CU-B football program.
 
PE is all about slashing costs, boasting revenue, then turning their investment into a profit by selling.

What could possibly go wrong? 😆

If PE enters the equation in the college football world you should be extremely worried instead of giddy. You should expect your game day experience to go down, your costs to all go up, and a lot more content to be hidden behind a pay wall.
I'm certainly not excited for it, however the writing is all over the wall.
 
Yeah. I'd be much more on board with it if CU could find an institutional investor. Ironically, the best fit is probably a university endowment fund that is traditionally a hands-off investor which is looking for solid growth and ROI over decades and has zero interest in turn-and-burn style profiteering. Maybe CU's endowment should buy a stake in the CU-B football program.
This is the best idea I've seen on this subject full stop.

Let some pe firms in to kick the tires and give term sheets to establish pricing, then shop those terms to institutional investors, with the endowment being the lead.
 
I mean, the Big 12 is definitely capital constrained relative to the B1G and SEC, which is the only reason PE is even being considered.
Keeping up with competition that is lighting money on fire isn't the type of capital constraint that has a good growth pathway.

I'd be deeply suspicious of anyone's business acumen that honestly tried to sell that investment thesis.
 
Keeping up with competition that is lighting money on fire isn't the type of capital constraint that has a good growth pathway.

I'd be deeply suspicious of anyone's business acumen that honestly tried to sell that investment thesis.
I don’t follow. Lighting money on fire? We’re talking about conferences and other programs that are investing all that money into their physical infrastructure, facilities, NIL, rev share, coaches and other staff, etc. The Big 12 doesn’t have the means at current to be competitive in that landscape. The obvious need is more capital to invest in similar things to at least somewhat keep up.

The idea that most on this site seem to be assuming here is that PE is coming in and would literally buy a program or an entire conference, make all the decisions, cut costs and then sell it for a profit. That’s not at all what’s being discussed, nor what any PE investment in the Big 12 would entail.
 
I don’t follow. Lighting money on fire? We’re talking about conferences and other programs that are investing all that money into their physical infrastructure, facilities, NIL, rev share, coaches and other staff, etc. The Big 12 doesn’t have the means at current to be competitive in that landscape. The obvious need is more capital to invest in similar things to at least somewhat keep up.

The idea that most seem to be assuming here is that PE is coming in and would literally buy a program or an entire conference, make all the decisions, cut costs and then sell it for a profit. That’s not at all what’s being discussed, nor what any PE investment in the Big 12 would entail.
Paying people $5-6mm/yr who would be willing to do the job for a fraction of that is, indeed, lighting money on fire.

I understand that "the competition" is doing that, so you "have to keep up," but when a market of buyers are buying things (in this case labor) for multiples more than the sellers would be willing to accept, the entire market is behaving irrationally.

Irrational markets eventually collapse. PE firms coming in and "slashing costs" is one of the mechanisms of correcting that irrationality.

"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is also a thought and consideration.

Maybe this is the "value investor" in me, and maybe I have an irrational belief in moderately efficient markets, but when parties in a market are capturing excess profits (i.e. selling their product for much more than they would be willing to accept in a more efficient market), yes, I describe the buying parties as "lighting money on fire."
 
Paying people $5-6mm/yr who would be willing to do the job for a fraction of that is, indeed, lighting money on fire.

I understand that "the competition" is doing that, so you "have to keep up," but when a market of buyers are buying things (in this case labor) for multiples more than the sellers would be willing to accept, the entire market is behaving irrationally.

Irrational markets eventually collapse. PE firms coming in and "slashing costs" is one of the mechanisms of correcting that irrationality.

"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is also a thought and consideration.

Maybe this is the "value investor" in me, and maybe I have an irrational belief in moderately efficient markets, but when parties in a market are capturing excess profits (i.e. selling their product for much more than they would be willing to accept in a more efficient market), yes, I describe the buying parties as "lighting money on fire."
Who is paying more than they would be willing accept? Are you talking about the B1G and SEC paying more for their coaches than they’d actually accept? Again, I don’t follow your analogy here and think that there is some conflating of a traditional PE acquisition and a PE cash infusion (with almost certainly no decision making authority).
 
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