Cumulative Under/Over-rated teams since 1989

[Folsom Field]

Looks like CU usually performs to where they're predicted - just slightly over-rated.

Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford are often under-rated, where USC is the most over-rated since 1989.

http://preseason.stassen.com/over-under/teams.html

 

[tante]

this is kinda silly, it measures the delta between the preseason rankings and the final standings. wouldn't it be better to use the preseason vegas over/under on number of wins and then measure the actual delta between the real number of wins, then you can use actual performance versus a subjective ranking system.

 

[MontanaBuff]

I like it. It helps to show the bias from the previous season heading into the following year.

Newton's law of pre-season rankings: "Teams which are ranked tend to stay ranked; teams which are outside the poll tend to stay outside the poll".

I also like the fact that Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas are three of the most over-rated teams of the past two decades. :haha2:

 

[Folsom Field]

Yeah, I like it, too.

The Vegas thing is subjective as well - certain teams get more action in Vegas than others - USC, ND, Texas, Nebraska, Florida, etc - which skews their projected win totals.

You can't escape some subjectivity.

 

[tante]

Yeah, I like it, too.

The Vegas thing is subjective as well - certain teams get more action in Vegas than others - USC, ND, Texas, Nebraska, Florida, etc - which skews their projected win totals.

You can't escape some subjectivity.

vegas should be much less subjective since it carries a true financial consequence if the house is wrong. What is the penalty if someone's preseason rankings are wrong? zilch.

 

[Maxer]

vegas should be much less subjective since it carries a true financial consequence if the house is wrong. What is the penalty if someone's preseason rankings are wrong? zilch.

But the house only has to be right about how people are betting, not about how good the team actually is. So that metric then automatically factors in bettors prejudices (like betting on the "name" teams while drunk in Vegas).