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Duration of Players

HawaiiBUFF

HawaiiBUFF

Well-Known Member
I just wanted to see everyone's thoughts about the length of time that our key players will be on campus for. The players I wanted to highlight were Dinwiddie, Roberson, Scott and Johnson. I chose these four players, because their potential to leave early. My thoughts are,

- Dinwiddie: Stays until his Junior year, then leaves to be a lottery pick
- Roberson: This ones tough, but I am hoping he sticks around for his Senior season. The potential our '13-'14 team has to be great is tremendous. Plus I think if we dominate our '13-'14 year, his draft stock would soar
- Scott: Some rumblings are he's leaving after his Sophomore season. I am really hoping that he stays until at least his Junior season
- Johnson: He may be a stretch to leave early, but I really do believe that Johnson is going to become dominate within the Pac-12. After becoming a beast in the Pac-12 I could see him leaving after his Junior year or ASAP, due to the fact his desire to turn pro

This is what I think will happen. I would love to hear thoughts.
 
I've changed my mind on Dre.

I think he's leaving. Draft stock is soaring with the way he's playing, The Mayor made a comment to the media recently, and Tad has been doing a full-on PR campaign to hype him.
 
I think Dre tests the waters without an agent this year. If he can get a first round rating he takes it, otherwise he is back. Scott is hard to judge because he is so young. If he gets beastly over the off season then say good bye after next. XJ has the ability to be a dominant player for us. We will just have to see how he progresses. Dinwiddie is probably our most legitimate 1st Round/Lottery Pick on the roster. He won't be here as a senior.
 
Before the season I thought it was a lock Dre was gone. A month ago, I thought it was a lock he'd return. Now I'm stuck in the middle. I think he goes (and if he can get a first round grade, he HAS to go. Period), but nothing would surprise me.

Mayor's gone after next year.

Too many variables on Josh & XJ right now.
 
Buffnik said:
I've changed my mind on Dre.

I think he's leaving. Draft stock is soaring with the way he's playing, The Mayor made a comment to the media recently, and Tad has been doing a full-on PR campaign to hype him.
Click to expand...

He's gone, always has been you could tell from the way he talked even before the season, his head is in the league. Only the threat of not being drafted would keep him here.
 
Goose said:
Before the season I thought it was a lock Dre was gone. A month ago, I thought it was a lock he'd return. Now I'm stuck in the middle. I think he goes (and if he can get a first round grade, he HAS to go. Period), but nothing would surprise me.

Mayor's gone after next year.

Too many variables on Josh & XJ right now.
Click to expand...

This. Although my guess is Josh and XJ are both here at least 3 years. They'd have to make such huge strides to leave after next year, I just don't see it being realistic at this point. Initially, I was one who thought Josh's time here could be fairly short, but as the season has gone on, I think it's become pretty obvious he needs the time at the college level.
 
absinthe said:
He's gone, always has been you could tell from the way he talked even before the season, his head is in the league. Only the threat of not being drafted would keep him here.
Click to expand...

I think the way he played early in the year, it was obvious he was looking to the NBA. He wanted to showcase his offensive game, and it didn't go well. He seems to be back to his game now, and it'll pay dividends in his draft stock.
 
Is Scott even an NBA prospect? He has the offensive skills but below average athleticism. Not to mention he has a lot of work to do on the rebounding and defensive fronts
 
sliderNcider said:
Is Scott even an NBA prospect? He has the offensive skills but below average athleticism. Not to mention he has a lot of work to do on the rebounding and defensive fronts
Click to expand...

Yes he is, he's at most 19 years old, isnt done grown and is pushing 6'10"

He rebounds well on the offensive end, runs the floor well, already shoots FT's very well for his size, and has proven he can match up with more physically gifted big men. Go back and review the Kansas game he's the only one who looked like he belonged out there. Add to that the fact big-men tend to develop much more slowly and you have a significant NBA prospect. He certainly has work to do but once his growth plates close and he can begin to put on more bulk you'll see him make a leap.

Edit: I should add that given his current body and sized deficiencies he might be a marginal prospect but you have to assume he's going to continue to develop physically.
 
Tim Duncan as a frosh:

PJ-AO862_SP_BIG_DV_20090325213829.jpg
 
absinthe said:
DUncan's freshman campaign stat line: 9.8 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 3.8 blocks, 54.5 % FGs, 30.2 minutes per game
Click to expand...

Josh Scott's freshman campaign stat line so far: 11.4 ppg, 5 rpg, 0.6 blocks, 50.9 % FGs, 28.7 minutes per game

Considering we have Roberson to grab tons of rebounds, I think Josh's stats are not far from Duncan's except for blocking.

I think between these two the biggest difference is athleticism, Josh just doesn't have very good vertical jumping for now.
 
Josh is going to develop into a great player. Hell, he commanded a double-team from a bunch of teams, including Arizona.

As far as comparing him to Duncan - I did it because of body type and style of play. Duncan's the gold standard. Quite possibly the best "4" we'll ever see play this game. We'd be ecstatic if Jelly could become Juwan Howard or Al Horford.
 
Saw Duncan live my fair share of times while he was a Demon Deacon. He stayed at Wake all 4 years, mind you. There are some differences between him and Scott, but certainly a ton of similarities. For now tough, I'd be completely stunned if we didn't have Scott for at least 3 years.
 
One thing to consider about Scott is that he comes from a family that values education highly. His parents raised him to have a focus on getting the degree.

Now if he has the chance to get high first round money then he obviously would have the resources to finish the degree when he wants to but if it is marginal then he would be more likely than most to stay around.

Looking at Dre I leaned more towards being gone but he also comes from a family that emphasizes education. In a lot of these cases once a kid decides he is in his last year the choice is made because he lets the academics slip to the point where returning isn't an option. I would be surprised if he hasn't done well enough academically to keep his options open.
 
Buffnik said:
Josh is going to develop into a great player. Hell, he commanded a double-team from a bunch of teams, including Arizona.

As far as comparing him to Duncan - I did it because of body type and style of play. Duncan's the gold standard.
Click to expand...
Jelly's on-court demeanor screams Tim Duncan, in addition to his frame and skill set.
 
I agree w just about everyone on the mayor - last year will probably be his last year, unless there's legit final 4 potential his senior year.
Still not certain bout what dre is thinking. Clearly I hope he stays, but he flipped it into beast mode these last few games w jelly out, and probably moved up because of it. If he goes this year, I think he'll be a low first round pick, but I dont think he'd leave without the for-sure money.
No idea on jelly yet, I think it's too early to tell.
XJ has showen flashes of awesomeness (vs cal) but sometimes doesnt have the best game. Needs to be more consistent next year to leave after his soph campaign.
 
Both Andre and Spencer will leave after their junior seasons, assuming they get promises in the 1st round. They should both check out the NBA draft process, listen to what NBA people tell them they need to do to get better and so forth. If they do go, I see it as more of a good thing for our program then bad. If they don't go after this season, then they'll at least be more familiar with the process and it'll be easier for them the following season

Too hard to say with Scott and X Johnson, although both have NBA potential. I think both stay at least through their junior season though.
 
I think Dre is gone because he doesn't really gain much by coming back next year. His offensive game will always be mediocre at best. Defense is his best asset. I can't see his draft stock going up next year in a stronger draft. This year the draft is weak, and he can be a great role player next year in the NBA with his defense and rebounding skills.

Dinwiddie will probably stay through his junior year. He still needs to add strength and muscle, but he already can do a lot of other things so well. Very versatile but not a great athlete, although that dunk against Stanford surprised me! I don't remember him trying something like that last year.

As for Jelly, he isn't a great athlete either so that definitely hurts his stock because the NBA loves physical freaks. I remember the guy from Kentucky a couple of years ago - Daniel Orton - he got drafted in the first round even though he barely played! Jelly needs to add strength and size. He can't really improve his vertical too much, but he can be a solid college player. I can see him staying till his senior year actually.

X Johnson has the highest ceiling of the four guys. He has great size, length and athleticism for a 3 in the NBA. If he can become more consistent and develop his jump shot, I believe he can go top 10 because he has the tools to become a starter in the NBA. We have seen flashes, but I expect him to make a similar jump Dinwiddie has done from freshmen to sophomore.

I think Ski has a chance if he can develop his passing skills and plays like Charleston Ski. He would be a terror off the bench in the NBA, but he won't make it as a SG with his size. He has great quickness and offensive moves, but his shot is too inconsistent right now.

This is fun to talk about, and he haven't even discussed the five new players next year, all have great potential to be good college players.
 
jwhite17 said:
I think Dre is gone because he doesn't really gain much by coming back next year. His offensive game will always be mediocre at best. Defense is his best asset. I can't see his draft stock going up next year in a stronger draft. This year the draft is weak, and he can be a great role player next year in the NBA with his defense and rebounding skills.
Click to expand...

After what happened to Roby by staying an extra year, if Dre can get a shot at the first round, he has to go.
 
He reminds me of Duncan, said that before. Will he get that good? Who the hell knows. Either way, we are lucky to have him. I could see him being an AA type, he's just getting started.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
I think Dre tests the waters without an agent this year. If he can get a first round rating he takes it, otherwise he is back. Scott is hard to judge because he is so young. If he gets beastly over the off season then say good bye after next. XJ has the ability to be a dominant player for us. We will just have to see how he progresses. Dinwiddie is probably our most legitimate 1st Round/Lottery Pick on the roster. He won't be here as a senior.
Click to expand...

:yeahthat: Smart thing: no agent, so if 'Dre gets mediocre response he can stay, like Trey Burke, UM guard.
 
buffgal said:
After what happened to Roby by staying an extra year, if Dre can get a shot at the first round, he has to go.
Click to expand...

Robey should have left after his freshman year, before RP had a serious chance at eroding his talents.

But with Tad, anyone who stays should improve several notches. HUGE difference!
 
Best I can tell Dre is grading out of the 1st round on a lot of boards. He's got some work to do to get solidly into the first. Question is whether he's content with a rd 2 selection and probably a season in the D League, when he could make a deep tourney run next year with the Mayor.

Having never been offered a second round NBA contract, I find it hard to answer...
 
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