Early Returns on the New Rules in College BB

[J.R. Ewing]

From the Wallstreet Journal.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles...79209964142719146?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_sports

The sport is already seeing the effects. Points in college basketball are up 9.2% and possessions per game 6.8% from last season, according to KPI Competition Analytics. That is partly a result of 3 more fouls per game and 4.4 more free throws per game, an increase that comes from referees actually whistling defenders for handsy defensive tactics.

What say you college basketball fans. The numbers point to a more exciting game, but are you enjoying it more? There have been complaints that there are too many whistles, and the game has no flow. Will players adjust over time?

 

[Buffnik]

It's a change for the better.

Players are going to adjust.

The biggest impact we have seen is that it has become much less likely for a team to pull an upset against an opponent that physically overmatches them. As a CU fan, that's now to our advantage against 90% of D1 so it's hard to complain.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

I would much rather watch an 80 - 78 game than a 45 - 43 game. I'm pretty confident that coaches will start to either open up the playbook or possibly design more plays. Should be interesting to see the differences come Feb/Mar. Don't be surprised if there are some unforeseen upsets when a sharp coach with a veteran and/or savvy team out-schemes a more talented squad.

 

[jgisland]

I guess it depends on how you determine "more exciting" more scoring is generally more exciting but it's only up because of more FT's. Points per possession are exactly flat

From a KenPom Blog Post

One way to understand the changes is splitting possessions into field goals, free throws and turnovers. As the table below indicates, games this year have had two more free throw possessions per team and two fewer turnover possessions. The increased pace (possibly due to increased whistles) has added one field goal possession per game. That’s how you get an increase of four points per game.

	2014		2013
	Possessions	PPP		Possessions	PPP
FGA-OR	45.6	1.21		44.5	1.21
.475*FTA	11.9	1.43		9.9	1.43
TO	13	0		14.8	0

 

[Daaah]

I guess it depends on how you determine "more exciting" more scoring is generally more exciting but it's only up because of more FT's. Points per possession are exactly flat

From a KenPom Blog Post

One way to understand the changes is splitting possessions into field goals, free throws and turnovers. As the table below indicates, games this year have had two more free throw possessions per team and two fewer turnover possessions. The increased pace (possibly due to increased whistles) has added one field goal possession per game. That’s how you get an increase of four points per game.

	2014		2013
	Possessions	PPP		Possessions	PPP
FGA-OR	45.6	1.21		44.5	1.21
.475*FTA	11.9	1.43		9.9	1.43
TO	13	0		14.8	0

And scoring at the free throw line is decidedly boring. I hate all the fouls.

 

[absinthe]

once the players adjsut i'll probably like it better but right now the whistles and stops are wrecking the flow of the game for me.

 

[Gary Indiana]

The rule changes in MBB this year remind me a lot of the changes the NHL enacted a few years ago. When it seemed like clutching and grabbing was giving less skilled players a chance to slow down faster and more talented players, the league made adjustments that were hard to watch at first, but now I am glad they were instituted. Matt Duschene would not be able to capitalize on his speed and skill today without the changes and I hope we can say the same thing next year about Jaron Hopkins for basketball, Hopkins is an athletic anomaly out there.

 

[Darth Snow]

The rule changes in MBB this year remind me a lot of the changes the NHL enacted a few years ago. When it seemed like clutching and grabbing was giving less skilled players a chance to slow down faster and more talented players, the league made adjustments that were hard to watch at first, but now I am glad they were instituted. Matt Duschene would not be able to capitalize on his speed and skill today without the changes and I hope we can say the same thing next year about Jaron Hopkins for basketball, Hopkins is an athletic anomaly out there.

you talking bout super freak?

[tweet]403270879473192960[/tweet]

 

[SECOBuffsFan]

Its a good move for the NCAA and it is the way basketball is meant to be played.

 

[Gary Indiana]

you talking bout super freak?

Yup, Hops going to make a lot of top play lists during his time at CU.

 

[air-zona]

So far I love the rule changes, I was so sick of the amount of charges that were called. Nothing looks more ridiculous than a secondary post defender attempting to draw a charge.

 

[Scotch]

It'll be good in the long run, but as usual its what the refs call vs. what they don't call that drives me nuts.

 

[jgisland]

It'll be good in the long run, but as usual its what the refs call vs. what they don't call that drives me nuts.

Ditto, I like it in the long run. What I don't like right now is how offensive players are getting away with arm bars and push off's. The refs are so gun-shy to call an offensive foul (on anybody except fletcher that is) that offensive guys are getting away with a lot.

 

[sackman]

It's making the game painful to watch for me. I dislike games where the referee dictates the pace of play.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Buffnik]

Ditto, I like it in the long run. What I don't like right now is how offensive players are getting away with arm bars and push off's. The refs are so gun-shy to call an offensive foul (on anybody except fletcher that is) that offensive guys are getting away with a lot.

What's getting me is that they're still letting players slide in and take a charge after the offensive player has started forward momentum to the hoop. I'm still even seeing the crap where the defensive player is set, the offensive player is going to miss him, and they let the defender throw a hip out to draw contact, fall down, and get the charge call.

 

[Scotch]

If they want more points scored just do away with zone defense. Problem solved.

 

[jgisland]

If they want more points scored just do away with zone defense. Problem solved.

Do you think we can get this passed by the time conference play rolls around?

 

[jgisland]

Tom Izzo had a few things to say about the rules last night

“Everybody is going to think points are up. They’re up because free shots are free shots!” Izzo said. “What I’m worried about is are we going to teach [players to] just dribble in and get fouled? Is that good basketball? We had a two hour and 32 minute game tonight. Is that going to be good for basketball?”


Michigan State’s starting point guard, Keith Appling, finished the night with 27 points on 10-for-14 shooting. He took over down the stretch, hitting big shot after big shot as he got into the paint seemingly at will. Here’s the thing: that was by design. “I told Keith at the end, if he takes a jump shot I’ll kill him,” Izzo said. “I just want him to drive in there and get fouled.”

 

[RumblinBuff]

Tom Izzo had a few things to say about the rules last night

“Everybody is going to think points are up. They’re up because free shots are free shots!” Izzo said. “What I’m worried about is are we going to teach [players to] just dribble in and get fouled? Is that good basketball? We had a two hour and 32 minute game tonight. Is that going to be good for basketball?”


Michigan State’s starting point guard, Keith Appling, finished the night with 27 points on 10-for-14 shooting. He took over down the stretch, hitting big shot after big shot as he got into the paint seemingly at will. Here’s the thing: that was by design. “I told Keith at the end, if he takes a jump shot I’ll kill him,” Izzo said. “I just want him to drive in there and get fouled.”

Note to Spencer: attack. attack. attack. Take 40 free throws a night. Buffs win all games.

 

[sackman]

Izzo is right. This is going to make players a lot more aggressive on offense. It won't necessarily add any scoring, though.

Yesterdays game against Harvard was almost bearable, though.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

Izzo is right. This is going to make players a lot more aggressive on offense. It won't necessarily add any scoring, though.

Yesterdays game against Harvard was almost bearable, though.

Players are starting to figure out how to play with the new rules. it is getting better.

 

[Goose]

The rule changes in MBB this year remind me a lot of the changes the NHL enacted a few years ago. When it seemed like clutching and grabbing was giving less skilled players a chance to slow down faster and more talented players, the league made adjustments that were hard to watch at first, but now I am glad they were instituted. Matt Duschene would not be able to capitalize on his speed and skill today without the changes and I hope we can say the same thing next year about Jaron Hopkins for basketball, Hopkins is an athletic anomaly out there.

I keep going back to this. It's a short term step back for a big leap forward. This season is going to be disjointed. But it'll be worth it next year.

 

[Buffenuf]

I keep going back to this. It's a short term step back for a big leap forward. This season is going to be disjointed. But it'll be worth it next year.

Now, if they'll just replace the "Dean Smith Memorial 35 second clock" and knock it down to the 30 seconds the women play with, it would be heaven.

 

[jgisland]

Going to link to a pachoops article that's pretty interesting and a solid read on how Jordan Adams has really transitioned his game and has taken advantage of the new rules/emphasis. Worth the read -

 

[pachoops]

Ditto, I like it in the long run. What I don't like right now is how offensive players are getting away with arm bars and push off's. The refs are so gun-shy to call an offensive foul (on anybody except fletcher that is) that offensive guys are getting away with a lot.

The pushoffs. That's a great point. I have NO idea how to quantify it but anecdotally it feels like there's been a LOT of step back jumpers this season.

 

[KingPants]

From a layman's point of view it has gotten better as the season has gone on. Credit to both players/coaches and officials. I was ready to rip my hair out the first couple of games becuase they were so unwatchable with the refs, but it seems a little more flowing now. I have nothing to back up my claim, just how it seems (disclosure, I watch very little CBB outside of CU till conference play time).

 

[jgisland]

Some interesting new data and analysis is coming in on scoring, possessions, turnovers, steals and how it's affecting the game in regards to the new rules emphasis.

More fouls are being called (up 2.2 fouls per team per game, 12.4% increase overall, 7.5% increase per possession). This is leading to more free throws (up 3.4 FTA per team per game, 17.1% increase overall, 11.9% increase per possession). More fouls and free throws are leading to shorter possessions and hence more possessions (up 3.1 possessions per team per game, 4.6% increase). The average length of possession has decreased from 17.99 seconds to 17.20 seconds this year. The increase in possessions is critical to the rest of the analysis. Made field goals are up 5.4% (FG% is up from 43.3% to 44.0%), but up only 0.8% per possession. 3-pt field goal makes and attempts per possession are down 1.6% and 1.3% respectively. Points per possession are up 2.8%.

And here is the kicker

Turnovers are down 6.0% per possession and steals are down 8.2% per possession, clearly identifying that more plays that were last year turnovers/steals are now being called fouls.

 

[Buffnik]

Some interesting new data and analysis is coming in on scoring, possessions, turnovers, steals and how it's affecting the game in regards to the new rules emphasis.

More fouls are being called (up 2.2 fouls per team per game, 12.4% increase overall, 7.5% increase per possession). This is leading to more free throws (up 3.4 FTA per team per game, 17.1% increase overall, 11.9% increase per possession). More fouls and free throws are leading to shorter possessions and hence more possessions (up 3.1 possessions per team per game, 4.6% increase). The average length of possession has decreased from 17.99 seconds to 17.20 seconds this year. The increase in possessions is critical to the rest of the analysis. Made field goals are up 5.4% (FG% is up from 43.3% to 44.0%), but up only 0.8% per possession. 3-pt field goal makes and attempts per possession are down 1.6% and 1.3% respectively. Points per possession are up 2.8%.

And here is the kicker

Turnovers are down 6.0% per possession and steals are down 8.2% per possession, clearly identifying that more plays that were last year turnovers/steals are now being called fouls.

In other words, bad news for programs trying to play the Louisville/VCU/Arkansas style.