Expectations for Sefo in 2014

[Joe Theismann's Leg]

There was an interesting point made by a commenter in today's chat with Brian Howell, Sefo's stats last season came mostly against Pac-12 defenses without the alsorans that Connor Wood faced. While it's true that Sefo did play against Charleston Southern, here's a breakdown of his stats against Pac-12 opponents:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/sefo-liufau-1/gamelog/2013/

Very respectable numbers for a true freshman, especially one who was expected to redshirt last season. In comparison look at Wood's game logs:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/connor-wood-1/gamelog/2013/

While Wood was able to pad his stats vs. cupcakes like CSU and Central Arkansas he still had a lower completion percentage than Sefo and a worse TD:INT ratio. Sefo held his own against some very good teams and definitely didn't seem to be the reason for us losing. He was consistent if unspectacular for CU last season... and it looks like he's got a lot to build on.

Also of note is that last season Sefo was listed at 215 lbs. This spring he was listed at 225.

Last season Sefo looked a little bit skinny:

This Spring, I think he looks a little more filled out.

Ten lbs of good weight would be really great for Sefo, but at his height he could possibly add even more. At 6'4'' 225 he'd be as big as or bigger than any other returning QB in the conference except for Wilson out of Utah.

One thing that we all like about Sefo is how passionate he is about the program and how dedicated he is to being the best that he can be. This weight gain would be evidence that this belief is justified.

So, what can we expect out of Sefo this year? He's seemingly taken steps to improve himself physically, he's coming into a second season in the same offense and he's expected to have a better offensive line than the one he had last season. Surely the loss of Richardson will hurt, but he should still be in a better situation than he was last season. I wouldn't be all that surprised to see him end up on the top of CU's record books among passers. Granted, he'd only have to beat out the likes of Cody Hawkins and Joel Klatt, but the sky looks like the limit for him. What would you expect out of Liufau this season? I'm expecting over 2,500 yards, 20 TD's and a completion percentage over 60.

 

[Shldr2Shldr]

His key stats from all 8 games.

1779 yds
59.4% comp
12 TD
8 INT
10 Sacks

I would like to see him around 2500yds passing espcially because he only played in 8 games last season. Completion percentage of about 65%. Get the TD:INT ratio closer to 2:1. The sacks were a mix of the offensive line being a sieve and him taking too long to decide. If he can keep that number the same while starting 4 more games, I think we will be in good shape.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

His key stats from all 8 games.

1779 yds
59.4% comp
12 TD
8 INT
10 Sacks

I would like to see him around 2500yds passing espcially because he only played in 8 games last season. Completion percentage of about 65%. Get the TD:INT ratio closer to 2:1. The sacks were a mix of the offensive line being a sieve and him taking too long to decide. If he can keep that number the same while starting 4 more games, I think we will be in good shape.

2500 should be achievable with our cake OOC schedule.

 

[leftybuff]

I suspect he will post similar numbers, except over a 12 game stretch instead of 8. So, around 2400-2600 yds., 18 TD's. Most QB's suffer a sophomore slump. For Sefo, he will have a larger playbook to manage, most likely, and no deep threat with PRich gone. He is a player and I feel good about the QB position for the first time since 2005.

 

[Duff Man]

Too young on offense for him to take a big step forward.

 

[sackman]

The adjustment to playing without a NFL caliber WR will take some time, I think. Sefo will need to have guys like Spruce, Bobo and Goodson all up their game, and Fields provide a downfield threat. We still have no TE.

 

[Joe Theismann's Leg]

The adjustment to playing without a NFL caliber WR will take some time, I think. Sefo will need to have guys like Spruce, Bobo and Goodson all up their game, and Fields provide a downfield threat. We still have no TE.

Spruce might play in the NFL someday... in the preseason... :huh:

Seriously though, you're right about the dynamic changing. The Buffs had a great weapon in Richardson, someone with top flight speed and great attributes that made him a 2nd rounder. All joking aside, I like Spruce a lot, but as the WR corps' new leader it's going to be tough. He's a talented player, but nowhere near the star that Richardson was. I'd expect the team to look to him more on shorter routes which may be an effective strategy but could also slow down Sefo's personal development. Right now Sean Irwin (TE), DD Goodson (Y) and Bryce Bobo (X) are atop the depth chart. That's not especially promising, however you sometimes see players make big strides in their development and significantly get better from one season to the next... if Sefo continues to develop and build rapport with his receivers then maybe he can get the best out of them. Donovan McNabb always had crap to work with in Philly and he got lots of production out of scrubs like Todd Pinkston and Freddy Mitchell.

 

[Quattro]

I suspect he will post similar numbers, except over a 12 game stretch instead of 8. So, around 2400-2600 yds., 18 TD's. Most QB's suffer a sophomore slump. For Sefo, he will have a larger playbook to manage, most likely, and no deep threat with PRich gone. He is a player and I feel good about the QB position for the first time since 2005.

Do most QBs actually suffer a sophomore slump or is that one of those old stereotypes that isn't true anymore?

The adjustment to playing without a NFL caliber WR will take some time, I think. Sefo will need to have guys like Spruce, Bobo and Goodson all up their game, and Fields provide a downfield threat. We still have no TE.

You should say we have no proven TE because Keeney will be a damn good player, we just don't know if the light will click this year or what.

 

[Buffnik]

I'm hoping for Sefo's stats to be 7-5.

 

[sackman]

You should say we have no proven TE because Keeney will be a damn good player, we just don't know if the light will click this year or what.

I should have said exactly what I did say.

 

[TimmyDUBs]

His key stats from all 8 games.

1779 yds
59.4% comp
12 TD
8 INT
10 Sacks

I would like to see him around 2500yds passing espcially because he only played in 8 games last season. Completion percentage of about 65%. Get the TD:INT ratio closer to 2:1. The sacks were a mix of the offensive line being a sieve and him taking too long to decide. If he can keep that number the same while starting 4 more games, I think we will be in good shape.

This would be a GREAT season for him, and we'd be in good shape if this is how he ends up. The yardage is reasonable, and would be a sign that the run game is going well.

I'm hoping for Sefo's stats to be 7-5.

Yup. If our run game works and leaves Sefo to manage the game well then I don't really care what his yardage or TD numbers are.

 

[leftybuff]

Do most QBs actually suffer a sophomore slump or is that one of those old stereotypes that isn't true anymore?

I would say it is still true more often than not. Any particular player can overcome it, but usually it is true. Just like you can watch a first year QB tend to slope down in production as the year wears on. In Sefo's case, he has fewer weapons this year. The OL is still questionable. The best deep threat is gone. TE is a question mark. It would be saying a lot if he did have a breakout year. I would be thrilled if he did because that would mean we have a game breaker at QB.

 

[Quattro]

I would say it is still true more often than not. Any particular player can overcome it, but usually it is true. Just like you can watch a first year QB tend to slope down in production as the year wears on. In Sefo's case, he has fewer weapons this year. The OL is still questionable. The best deep threat is gone. TE is a question mark. It would be saying a lot if he did have a breakout year. I would be thrilled if he did because that would mean we have a game breaker at QB.

It's definitely not out of the question for him to have a sophomore slump since PRich is gone, I guess what I'm really wondering if someone has done a study on it or not to test that theory.

 

[96 Buff]

Holy Christ, 'tini really is an insufferable ****.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Holy Christ, 'tini really is an insufferable ****.

Welcome noob. Get me a beer and a sammich.

 

[Quattro]

Holy Christ, 'tini really is an insufferable ****.

I'm insufferable because I'm asking a question while agreeing with Lefty's premise? Good lord.

 

[TimmyDUBs]

Holy Christ, 'tini really is an insufferable ****.

I can't think of a few posters more insufferable than 'tini.

In this case, how could you ever make a case that most of the time having prior playing time will lead to worse play than the QB's inexperienced first year? That is ridiculous.

 

[CUFan]

No PRich is going to have an impact all over the field, coupled with an oline that may not be any better than last year's. Nonetheless, I do expect improvement from Sefo and the rest of the team. By most or all accounts, this team is working very hard to bring this thing together as best as possible.

I'd like to see an improved running game to help Sefo and the rest of the offense. I'd like to see a nasty streak from our oline that includes running the ball quite a bit.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[leftybuff]

It's definitely not out of the question for him to have a sophomore slump since PRich is gone, I guess what I'm really wondering if someone has done a study on it or not to test that theory.

Not that I know of....just my general perception.

 

[Creebuzz]

Also of note is that last season Sefo was listed at 215 lbs. This spring he was listed at 225.

Last season Sefo looked a little bit skinny:

This Spring, I think he looks a little more filled out.

.

I call BS on the weight gain. The black pants are clearly slimming.

 

[MtnBuff]

The sophomore slump thing has been dis proven a bunch of time, don't think that will be an issue. Not having PRich will be an issue but a far bigger issue will be the OL in front of him.

To say that it may be no better than last year may be optimistic. We have nobody who is a logical choice to play LT, the single most important position on the OL in the passing game. We have some guys we "hope" can do the job but until I see somebody do the job color me sceptical. Add to that a RT who's jersey should often read Ole' and the odds of Sefo having a breakout season go way down. We also have questions on the interior of the OL as well.

Keeney may be the next coming of Shannon Sharpe for all we know, not likely but the definition of unproven is somebody who has not yet shown it, he hasn't. Realistically he could be the best receiving TE we have had since Klop but let's not count on it till we see it on a college field against college defenses.

Best way to take the pressure off a QB is with a solid running game and I think Adkins has shown enough flashes to suggest he can do the job, unfortunately though the running game almost always comes back to . . . you guessed it. . . . the OL and the same issues we have in pass blocking come up again in the running game.

Now I may be completely wrong and we may have some young OL players step in, step up, and answer our questions in a positive way. If that happens we could be a pretty good offense even without PRich. I just need to see it first.

I do think that our OL prospects for future years are much improved and with that the offense will get markedly better, just not believing in "hope" this year quite yet.

 

[Quattro]

What are the questions on the interior OL? Crabb and Munuer are proven starters. I guess Kelley is one. The interior of the OL should be pretty good this year.

 

[MtnBuff]

What are the questions on the interior OL? Crabb and Munuer are proven starters. I guess Kelley is one. The interior of the OL should be pretty good this year.

If you use guess that means you don't know. I hope Kelley is a solid player for us. I am also hoping that the JC guard is a quality player for us because while Munyer has some experience he hasn't exactly distinguished himself. How many other PAC12 teams would Munyer start for, no more than 2 or 3 and maybe less than that.

Now if Kelley comes through, Crabb who we have already seen is solid, and Weifels is able to step in we could be good on the interior. That would then make Munyer a solid depth guy meaning that in injury there doesn't kill us.

Again we can hope and I do have a positive feeling but honestly we won't know until we see it happen on the field.

 

[Quattro]

You're really under rating Munyer

 

[buffaholic]

Like every other year in recent memory, we are hoping we can piece together a decent front 5 linemen. Even one injury could be devastating. Law of averages is against us.

knocking on wood....

If Callahan and Irwin are both available AND the Juco guy is decent, we might have a little breathing room.

 

[Quattro]

Like every other year in recent memory, we are hoping we can piece together a decent from 5 linemen. Even one injury could be devastating. Law of averages is against us.

knocking on wood....

I'll revise my earlier statement, I don't think there is much questions about the interior of the OL, depth is a different story.

 

[Joe Theismann's Leg]

You're really under rating Munyer

Agree. Munyer was named to the Athlon Sports 3rd team all Pac-12 in the preseason, and Phil Steele named him to the midseason All Pac-12 team in 2013. Munyer is solid. He had 41 pancake blocks last season and the team scored him a 68.9 on Plus Play Percentage. I'm looking forward to seeing his senior season. If he's not drafted, I'll be surprised.

 

[BuffClass90]

Pros
same offense and coaching staff as last year
experience
weight gain
play the "cake" games

Cons
Loss of PRich
O line a question

I expect an improvement:
2400 yards
62% comp
20 TD
8 INT
8 Sacks

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

To me, the offense is still a work in progress. There are unanswered questions on the o/line, receivers, and tight end. Some of these questions play into the lack of an effective running game last year, one which needs to be better this year.

From Sefo? I want to see improvement with his progressions and reads, improvement in getting rid of the ball vice taking a sack, and I'd like to see him run a few times just to keep the D honest. Simple improvements, that's all I ask for.

 

[TimmyDUBs]

To me, the offense is still a work in progress. There are unanswered questions on the o/line, receivers, and tight end. Some of these questions play into the lack of an effective running game last year, one which needs to be better this year.

From Sefo? I want to see improvement with his progressions and reads, improvement in getting rid of the ball vice taking a sack, and I'd like to see him run a few times just to keep the D honest. Simple improvements, that's all I ask for.

If we can go from a "work in process" to a clear offensive identity I'll be happy