Alternatively titled "**** the haters".
It seems as if every year, my expectations for the team is lower than a majority of posters here. Usually, the actual is somewhere in between. So this is why I posted my "State of the Fanbase" thread last week - I wanted to see where I lined up with everyone heading in to this year. Surprisingly (at least to me), 63.9% of the posters that voted thought the team would be going to the NIT. Then I talked to Pachoops who said he thinks the Buffs finish 8th in the conference. Then I listened to the BuffStampede podcast previewing the year, and RK, Adam and Zisk all had the Buffs below 20 wins for the year. And Rumblin's preview yesterday didn't have us dancing.
You're all wrong.
It's not going to be easy, and there's a decent chance that come March I'm going to look really stupid, but here are the four reasons I'm saying that we dance.
1.) The Josh's
We all know what Josh Scott can do. He put up 14.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per game last year on an ORtg of 127.1 (15th in the nation) while dealing with severe back issues all season. He put up 19.9 points and 10.6 rebounds a game in the month of March. It's a small sample size, but do you know what they call someone who does that? An All-American. It amazes me that he's not getting more All-Pac-12 love this pre-season. There's a lot of love for Jakob Poeltl - who deserves it - but not Josh. And this confuses me because Poeltl as a freshman put up 9.1 points and 6.8 boards a game on an ORtg of 109.9. Very solid numbers. Solid numbers that are comparable or slightly worse than the 10.2 points, 5.7 boards and ORtg of 111.1 that Jelly put up his freshman year.
On top of Josh Scott, we have Josh Fortune joining the team this year after his redshirt year. It's horrible to use scrimmages to evaluate guys, but I remember thinking after last year's scrimmage that Fortune might be the best player on the court. He's best known for his Big East conference tournament play that helped send the Friers to the dance in 2014, but he put up solid numbers all year. An ORtg of 101.1 isn't great, but it would have been one of the top 5 ratings on the Buffs last year. The big thing about Fortune though is his outside shooting. His eFG% of 52.9% in '14 would have been better than all of the guards on CU's team last year but one - Tre'Shaun Fletcher (who had a 53.1%). Fortune is a low usage guy who will fit in the offense better than Ski ever did, and will provide the outside shooting to open things up for Josh to work down low.
2.) Dom
There are a lot of nerves over the fact that Dom struggled with turnovers in the scrimmage and that he had 9 fouls in another one. I get it. But is anyone seriously convinced that Tad would have kept Dom that aggressive on D after he picked up 2 quick fouls in a real game? Dom is finding his legs right now. He came in as a top 100 recruit with a lot of expectations who had to share a backcourt with a pure gunner and dealt with injuries and suspensions to start the year. It's no wonder he didn't find his legs. He's had an entire training camp, and Tad is making him earn things this year. This is good. The kid has played on US National teams, I think he can handle this. We're still going to see some up and down from him, but a lot more up than down.
3.) "No Your Roll"
One of my favorite locker room stories (that doesn't involve Keith Closs, and no way in hell I'm posting any of those on the board) comes from the book "Seven Seconds Or Less", Alvin Gentry (a former coach at CU) tells the story from his time in Miami where the team was struggling and called a meeting. In this meeting, a player named Ladell Eckles stood up in front of the entire room, went up to the white board and wrote "No your roll" to motivate his teammates. All of them sat there before Glen Rice just said "Sit down, dumbass".
This year's Buff team will know their roles. There's no confusion. Last year, people wondered if it was Ski's team or if Josh or even XJ were going to be the leaders. The team was undergoing an identity crisis and focusing on offense instead of Tadball. This year, it's Josh's team. There are no questions. They're going to be a defensive squad who will win games 50-49. They're going to fight, they're going to claw. Everyone knows their roles, and they will be filling them. Players are at their best when they can just react and don't have to think. This year's team is set up for that.
4.) The Return of #TadBall
TadBall is boring. It's ugly. It makes the baby Jesus cry. But it wins. There has been no talk of offense in training camp, and I love it. I want us doing nothing but defensive drills in training camp and we can have a whole three offensive plays - all of which will involve Josh handling the ball in the post. 53-41, 63-62, 70-59 and 53-51. What do those scores have in common? Those were the scores from the 2012 Pac-12 Tournament games the Buffs played in. All were ugly, but all were fun.
Listen, it's going to be a long season. There is a very good chance that we start the season 0-2. But unlike last year, this year's team has the resiliency to overcome this. Like I said, there's a decent chance that come March people are bumping this to mock me - and I'm fine with that. Because dammit, I want to believe.
CU finishes 5th in the Pac-12 and gets a 10 seed.
Roll Mother****ing Tad.
It seems as if every year, my expectations for the team is lower than a majority of posters here. Usually, the actual is somewhere in between. So this is why I posted my "State of the Fanbase" thread last week - I wanted to see where I lined up with everyone heading in to this year. Surprisingly (at least to me), 63.9% of the posters that voted thought the team would be going to the NIT. Then I talked to Pachoops who said he thinks the Buffs finish 8th in the conference. Then I listened to the BuffStampede podcast previewing the year, and RK, Adam and Zisk all had the Buffs below 20 wins for the year. And Rumblin's preview yesterday didn't have us dancing.
You're all wrong.
It's not going to be easy, and there's a decent chance that come March I'm going to look really stupid, but here are the four reasons I'm saying that we dance.
1.) The Josh's
We all know what Josh Scott can do. He put up 14.5 points and 8.4 rebounds per game last year on an ORtg of 127.1 (15th in the nation) while dealing with severe back issues all season. He put up 19.9 points and 10.6 rebounds a game in the month of March. It's a small sample size, but do you know what they call someone who does that? An All-American. It amazes me that he's not getting more All-Pac-12 love this pre-season. There's a lot of love for Jakob Poeltl - who deserves it - but not Josh. And this confuses me because Poeltl as a freshman put up 9.1 points and 6.8 boards a game on an ORtg of 109.9. Very solid numbers. Solid numbers that are comparable or slightly worse than the 10.2 points, 5.7 boards and ORtg of 111.1 that Jelly put up his freshman year.
On top of Josh Scott, we have Josh Fortune joining the team this year after his redshirt year. It's horrible to use scrimmages to evaluate guys, but I remember thinking after last year's scrimmage that Fortune might be the best player on the court. He's best known for his Big East conference tournament play that helped send the Friers to the dance in 2014, but he put up solid numbers all year. An ORtg of 101.1 isn't great, but it would have been one of the top 5 ratings on the Buffs last year. The big thing about Fortune though is his outside shooting. His eFG% of 52.9% in '14 would have been better than all of the guards on CU's team last year but one - Tre'Shaun Fletcher (who had a 53.1%). Fortune is a low usage guy who will fit in the offense better than Ski ever did, and will provide the outside shooting to open things up for Josh to work down low.
2.) Dom
There are a lot of nerves over the fact that Dom struggled with turnovers in the scrimmage and that he had 9 fouls in another one. I get it. But is anyone seriously convinced that Tad would have kept Dom that aggressive on D after he picked up 2 quick fouls in a real game? Dom is finding his legs right now. He came in as a top 100 recruit with a lot of expectations who had to share a backcourt with a pure gunner and dealt with injuries and suspensions to start the year. It's no wonder he didn't find his legs. He's had an entire training camp, and Tad is making him earn things this year. This is good. The kid has played on US National teams, I think he can handle this. We're still going to see some up and down from him, but a lot more up than down.
3.) "No Your Roll"
One of my favorite locker room stories (that doesn't involve Keith Closs, and no way in hell I'm posting any of those on the board) comes from the book "Seven Seconds Or Less", Alvin Gentry (a former coach at CU) tells the story from his time in Miami where the team was struggling and called a meeting. In this meeting, a player named Ladell Eckles stood up in front of the entire room, went up to the white board and wrote "No your roll" to motivate his teammates. All of them sat there before Glen Rice just said "Sit down, dumbass".
This year's Buff team will know their roles. There's no confusion. Last year, people wondered if it was Ski's team or if Josh or even XJ were going to be the leaders. The team was undergoing an identity crisis and focusing on offense instead of Tadball. This year, it's Josh's team. There are no questions. They're going to be a defensive squad who will win games 50-49. They're going to fight, they're going to claw. Everyone knows their roles, and they will be filling them. Players are at their best when they can just react and don't have to think. This year's team is set up for that.
4.) The Return of #TadBall
TadBall is boring. It's ugly. It makes the baby Jesus cry. But it wins. There has been no talk of offense in training camp, and I love it. I want us doing nothing but defensive drills in training camp and we can have a whole three offensive plays - all of which will involve Josh handling the ball in the post. 53-41, 63-62, 70-59 and 53-51. What do those scores have in common? Those were the scores from the 2012 Pac-12 Tournament games the Buffs played in. All were ugly, but all were fun.
Listen, it's going to be a long season. There is a very good chance that we start the season 0-2. But unlike last year, this year's team has the resiliency to overcome this. Like I said, there's a decent chance that come March people are bumping this to mock me - and I'm fine with that. Because dammit, I want to believe.
CU finishes 5th in the Pac-12 and gets a 10 seed.
Roll Mother****ing Tad.
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