We'll get all the strength of schedule we want, just wait for the Pac-12 season to roll around. The one thing a women's basketball team in the Pac-12 does NOT have to worry about is whether their SOS is good enough. The selection committee for the women's tournament continues to use RPI which has components of Winning Percentage, Opponents Winning Percentage, and Opponents Opponents's Winning Percentage.
RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)
Opponents Winning Percentage is weighted at twice the value of our Winning Percentage and our Opponents Opponents's Winning percentage in the calculation. Which is a takes too long way of explaining that SOS is somewhat important, especially as per the OOWP component, but only about half the weighting of our Opponent's Winning Percentage, and further diluted by our our Winning Percentage in the calculation. So what does that add up to? In the Pac-12? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Non-conference SOS is absolutely irrelevant, because the SOS is so difficult in-confernce. The only bearing non-conference SOS has on anything is whether it gets you ready for conference play. That's it. For NCAAW tournament selection committee consideration the Buffs RPI will be plenty high IF they can find the wins. Big if. That's almost an impossible ask of this team right now.
As of today, Colorado is 49th in RPI, and 5th in the Pac-12. We have a better RPI than Utah, Washington, Washington State, Arizona State, USC, Cal and UCLA. One of those teams won the WNIT last season and two of those teams made the NCAA tournament. Another would have if they hadn't been injured. SOS will take care of itself in this conference. Colorado will have one of the strongest SOS ratings coming out of the Pac-12 tournament, of any team in the country. The question is will we have enough Wins to make that SOS relevant to a selection committee? The Selection committee understands that the Pac-12 is the elite conference, but they still want any NCAAW tournament teams to be at least .500 in conference before getting the bid. That is probably not realistic for this team. While we are much better team than we have been since basically '12-13, when we finished 25-7 and made the NCAA touranament, but the conference has also gotten much much better. Most teams in this conference are recruiting elite four and five star recruits, and Colorado just isn't. We've been trying to compete playing with players who just are not on that same level. While we have some very good individual players that might have a couple of good tools (shoot, pass, rebound, defend, vision, athleticism, basketball IQ) the reality is some of the teams in this conference have players with plus plus length, with athleticism off the charts, and that have ALL the tools not just one or two. It's a tough challenge but we are just starting to see the results. JR has realized she can't but players out there that can do something well, but get exposed in other aspects of their game, without the loss column pilling up. JR is using a much more sensible rotation, and putting players in a position where they can have success and contribute give the team a chance to succeed. Prior to this season, JR pretty much refused to make changes even when players were getting exposed and we flat out couldn't compete. I don't think we'll see a different JR the rest of her time in Boulder. I think she is a good coach in a very tough challenge. In the entirety of her time in Colorado she hasn't played a conference game yet where she had the better players on the floor. Give her some credit for the wins we have managed. While this is a much better team than we've had in years, we really really need the Ws from the non-conference portion of the schedule if we want any possibility to go to the NCAAW or WNIT. We would need at least 9 wins in conference to make the NCAAW tournament, and we need a record above .500 after the conference tournament to be eligible for the WNIT.
The last thing that matters to this Buffs team right now is SOS. That will take care of itself all by itself. Just you wait. Our backcourt is significantly healthier, better, and deeper than it was last year. Our front court is the best its been since we had Roberson, Reese and Swan together. We have a coach that actually understands the Xs and Os of this game, and in many games have outcoached the opponent coaching staff on scout, adjustments and in-game scheme. We have a group of players that has come together much closer than they were last year, and they are talking about that. They are starting to play for each other. Around here that hasn't always been the case lately. While turnovers are very troubling, the good news is that we have players that are coachable, that want to win, and are accepting their roles and fighting through being a very young club. I think I read only 8 teams in all of Division One have as few upperclassmen as we do. We aren't as young as Indiana State. That dumpster fire would be interesting to get the low down on. Their coach cut and ran off every single player from last season. She came across as angry when they played here. JR is doing a great job with young players.
Where we want to get is the WNIT. Denver is a WNIT team. They are innovative, and very well coached. We'll learn something about our team and the process tonight. While things are trending upward for this CU program, things are skyrocketing upwards in the trends of both Denver and Northern Colorado. This should be a fun one. What it really comes down to is that CU needs every single W it can get in the chase to get above .500 for postseason eligibility. As good as some of the teams in this conference are, none will escape the Pac-12 schedule undefeated.
The good news is that JR Payne beat Stanford while coaching for Santa Clara, the season before she was hired here. The bad news is that JR Payne has largely been trying to compete in the Pac-12 with players about on par with WCC players like she had at Santa Clara. We didn't sign any top-100 players, but at least the trend is up. If Rick George is smart he'll stay the course and give JR Payne time to develop this program. It's not like JR Payne inherited a bunch of All-Americans. The season before JR got here this team went 2-16 in conference (the same as last season). The scary thing is even though our team is vastly improved, so is the rest of the conference, and probably by a greater margin. It is within the realm of possibility that we could actually not win a conference game, and potentially not win more than the 2 games we managed last season. Do I think that will happen? No, honestly I don't. However, losing is tough to manage.
Where are the wins going to come from? We absolutely have to get this game vs Denver tonight, and the next two vs UAB and Tulane. We only get six games this year against Utah, USC, Washington State, and Washington. If we somehow managed to win ALL of those games, we could potentially finish 17-12, and be off on a WNIT run. JR Payne could bring back Brittany Spears, Chucky Jeffrey, Shelly Sheetz, Lisa VanGoor, Jamillah Lang, Kate Fagan, Jackie McFarland, Tara Bjorkland, Bianca Smith, and Erin Scholz and we'd still struggle more than people realize vs Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Arizona State, and Arizona. We recently had one the best players in program history finish her career here. She still finished 2-16 twice in this conference. This conference is just unbelievably difficult to play in.
Which is why the Buffs cannot look past this good shooting Denver team that is very very well coached. Denver defeated big time teams last season. The Pioneers beat New Mexico in the WNIT last season, and they defeated South Dakota who was ranked in both AP and coach's top-25 polls, and went to the NCAA tournament. Our CU team last season couldn't possibly have played with New Mexico or South Dakota last season.
'sko Buffs!
