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GoonieBuff

GoonieBuff

Real home isn't Astoria
Club Member
Moderator
SIAP, but I didn't see this anywhere. According to the latest ESPN Pac-12 Power Rankings, our last 5 games couldn't get any more difficult. We face the teams ranked 1-5 in the next five weeks.

I knew it would be a tough road, but seeing the teams listed like this in the Power Rankings made me do a double-take. I need to keep this in mind at the end of the season, and I'm hopefully pumped because we pulled one off that we shouldn't have.

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/93720/pac-12-week-8-power-rankings-stanford-rises-to-no-1
 
tumblr_mmswatxMhR1ql0rx6o1_500.gif
 
Lets enjoy. Currently better standings in conference then udub and osu. At least we are not in last place.
 
in before someone posts a dumb and dumber reference.

I think its possible to win any of the remaining games, but I don't expect it. I'm sticking with my original prediction for the season of 1 win against either OSU or WSU (got that right so far - I'd be happy with a win against WSU though too) and 1 win against someone else. I picked USC for the upset and that still seems like the best guess.
 
I think WSU is going to be a tough game.
It's on the road, they're playing good football...but they are beatable. They barely pulled one off against Arizona (who we should have beaten) on the road,
and could very easily overlook CU.

Here's to hoping CU takes it to them and gets another road W!
 
Ryan K had a piece (http://bsndenver.com/the-cu-buffs-are-still-far-from-a-successful-season/) on what makes the season a success. He noted the fact they set the standard as a bowl game so that is the only real success. There is still a chance that happens but with what we have seen with the "gauntlet" ahead it is about a 5% chance at best.

He talked about the levels of progress going from failure to significant progress. His significant progress was getting a win against Utah or one of the Cali schools while remaining competitive in other games. His failure was getting are asses handed to us the rest of the year.

I have no expectations for a win but to feel like progress has been made I need to see another W. Here is what I feel is a successful season:
-UCLA: Play competitive. Can't lay an egg after beating OSU with UCLAs injuries and needing to build momentum.
-Stanford: Competitive early on and stay within 10 until 4th. Stanford is a damn good team and is clicking. That would be the biggest upset since maybe OU or Nebraska-Texas in my mind. Georgia and WVU were lower 20s teams. I would take a blowout like Oregon loss.
-USC: Night game for last game of season. Fight tooth and nail and send Zim out right. Don't think it happens though. But a lot to play for even if we lose the next two.
-Wazzou: Their defense is a joke. We should be able to give them a game. This is still our closest chance to a W. Leach has some problem against CU no matter who is at the helm.
-Utah: Need to go out right. I knew Utah wasn't a Top 5 team but they are still damn good. Play them competitive. If we are somehow at 6 Ws this goes to a HUGE game and I would make the drive to see the chance for a bowl.
 
I feel like we match up against Wazzu better than any of the remaining teams, and not just because they are considered the least talented. It's no secret they want to throw it around 50-60 times/game, and our defensive strength is our secondary. Witherspoon is average, at best, and Crawley has been shaky at times this year, but I love Awuzie and our Safety play. There will be more INT opportunities in this game than any game we've played, so if our front 5 or 6 can generate any pressure at all, we should be able to make some plays.

On the offensive side of the ball, I feel like Digger might have an aneurysm with how conservative we could be. They have the 103rd ranked rushing defense in the country and I think MM and BL's game plan could center around shortening the game and keeping their offense off the field. Easier said than done, but we will get blown out if we try to turn it into a track meet.
 
goalline said:
in before someone posts a dumb and dumber reference.

I think its possible to win any of the remaining games, but I don't expect it. I'm sticking with my original prediction for the season of 1 win against either OSU or WSU (got that right so far - I'd be happy with a win against WSU though too) and 1 win against someone else. I picked USC for the upset and that still seems like the best guess.
Click to expand...
Yes - it's nice to have hope, and everything about winning a P12 road game is great, but turning that feat into bowling and beating good teams on the road (Utah?? On the road?? really??!!) is beyond unrealistic. Tripping up someone at home is the best chance for a win in the remaining schedule, and it will be because they dissed us and because it's at home. Regardless of the unconventional home losses in P12 this year.
 
Sefo seems to be back to his old self, which is good and something positive we can move forward with the rest of the year. Our oline is still a mess as well as our front 7 on D. Something has to give on the oline or CU's front 7 on D, for us to take another step.

I guess I may be the only one that likes the power run plays with Sefo. He seems to be healthy and as mentioned above, shortening the games is a successful strategy for us.It seems to be a play we can have success with, especially in the red zone.
 
patebuff said:
Sefo seems to be back to his old self, which is good and something positive we can move forward with the rest of the year. Our oline is still a mess as well as our front 7 on D. Something has to give on the oline or CU's front 7 on D, for us to take another step.

I guess I may be the only one that likes the power run plays with Sefo. He seems to be healthy and as mentioned above, shortening the games is a successful strategy for us.It seems to be a play we can have success with, especially in the red zone.
Click to expand...
I also liked some of those Sefo designed runs, just thought there were 3 or 4 too many.
 
aghcsm said:
I also liked some of those Sefo designed runs, just thought there were 3 or 4 too many.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I really like them in the red zone and situations where the D is pinned back a little and not expecting it. Running it on 3rd and 2 where the whole stadium knows its coming, is not ideal.
 
patebuff said:
Sefo seems to be back to his old self, which is good and something positive we can move forward with the rest of the year. Our oline is still a mess as well as our front 7 on D. Something has to give on the oline or CU's front 7 on D, for us to take another step.

I guess I may be the only one that likes the power run plays with Sefo. He seems to be healthy and as mentioned above, shortening the games is a successful strategy for us.It seems to be a play we can have success with, especially in the red zone.
Click to expand...
I really like Sefo running in short yardage situations. I'm honestly not opposed to giving him the rock in any situation of 3 yards or less, as I don't think he can consistently be stopped for no gain or a loss. I would also like to see us going for every 4th and short (in reasonable field position, but especially in the red zone) during this gauntlet.
 
For fun, took a look at updated win probabilities...
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile

31-Oct at UCLA 9%
7-Nov Stanford 12%
13-Nov USC 10%
21-Nov at Washington State 21%
28-Nov at Utah 6%

Flipping the percentages gives us the probability of losing every game: 53.5%

Football outsiders gives us 4.59 projected wins, so they are a little more positive than straight winning percentages.

Basically, it's a coin flip if we win another game. Anything more than that would be highly highly unlikely.
 
Darth Snow said:
For fun, took a look at updated win probabilities...
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile

31-Oct at UCLA 9%
7-Nov Stanford 12%
13-Nov USC 10%
21-Nov at Washington State 21%
28-Nov at Utah 6%

Flipping the percentages gives us the probability of losing every game: 53.5%

Football outsiders gives us 4.59 projected wins, so they are a little more positive than straight winning percentages.

Basically, it's a coin flip if we win another game. Anything more than that would be highly highly unlikely.
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
Sure hoping ucla fresh qb looks like a freshman this weekend. If we could get a couple of lucky bounces on top of that? To go with a couple of ucla busted D assignments. We might have a chance to pull in an upset. Just maybe?
 
TSchekler said:
...I would also like to see us going for every 4th and short (in reasonable field position, but especially in the red zone) during this gauntlet.
Click to expand...
Which reminded me - we did go for a first down on a 4th where a FG was an option. I've forgotten the exact scenario, and as I recall it was a pretty obvious choice to go for it, but I haven't seen a single post-game comment noting that MM took the bolder (if obvious) option. After all the criticism over rejecting the option in the AZ game, I thought it worth pointing out -
 
aghcsm said:
Which reminded me - we did go for a first down on a 4th where a FG was an option. I've forgotten the exact scenario, and as I recall it was a pretty obvious choice to go for it, but I haven't seen a single post-game comment noting that MM took the bolder (if obvious) option. After all the criticism over rejecting the option in the AZ game, I thought it worth pointing out -
Click to expand...
It's because the negative aspects of the general fan's game memory are remembered much more than the positive ones.
 
Darth Snow said:
For fun, took a look at updated win probabilities...
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile

31-Oct at UCLA 9%
7-Nov Stanford 12%
13-Nov USC 10%
21-Nov at Washington State 21%
28-Nov at Utah 6%

Flipping the percentages gives us the probability of losing every game: 53.5%

Football outsiders gives us 4.59 projected wins, so they are a little more positive than straight winning percentages.

Basically, it's a coin flip if we win another game. Anything more than that would be highly highly unlikely.
Click to expand...
I think a Tini gets his wings every time you do this.
 
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