Every year I try to predict the Pac-12. Every year I get a few things very right, and at least one thing very wrong. So, in the interest of keeping my streak alive (and giving people something new to mock me with), here are my Pac-12 predictions for this upcoming season.
1.) Oregon – I absolutely hate Dana Altman with a passion. He’s a jackass, he’s hated by the other coaches in the P12, and I hope he gets burned hard by the issues they had involving players and Title IX violations two years ago. But get rid of him and this is the most fun team to cheer for in the conference this year that doesn’t have a beautiful buffalo on its jersey. Oregon can throw so many talented guys out there that are interchangeable, and they’re going to be a blast. Leading the way is Dillon Brooks – a potential All American. Brooks has a great all-around game that is a perfect complement to Keyser Soze – er, Tyler Dorsey’s ability to score and Dylan Ennis and Casey Benson’s smooth PG play. They’re going to miss Elgin Cook and Dwayne Benjamin, but they still have Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell up front and Kavell Bigby-Williams is a Boucher clone. People are sleeping on them because of their name, but they’re a Final Four contender.
2.) Arizona – With the Ray Smiith injury/retirement and the Chance Commanche and Alonzo Trier suspensions, Arizona only has about a 7 man rotation right now. But it’s a damn good 7 guys. Trier hurts. A lot. There are rumors he may be out for the season, and if so it limits their ceiling, but Lauri Markkanen has been exceeding all expectations so far this pre-season and could be a potential All-Pac-12 guy. I also, in my continued defense of all Pac-12 PGs who are hated by their own fanbase, think Parker Jackson-Cartwright is going to have a good year and show why he was a 5* recruit two years ago. They’ll play defense, Sean Miller will soak through shirts, and they’ll make the sweet 16 again.
3.) USC – When I saw the USA Today preview that had them at third, I laughed. And then I thought about it and it makes sense. They were damn good last year and while they lost Julian Jacobs and Nikola Jovanovic (and, to a lesser extent, Katin Reinhardt who could be addition by subtraction), they still return a damn good backcourt in Jordan McLaughlin and Elijah Stewart. Add in Bennie Boatwright and the high paced offense that Andy Enfield always has, and they’ll have some firepower up front. Can they play D and rebound? I think they’ll be able to do just enough to let DJ Mal-Ski turn the volume to 11.
4.) Colorado – I thought about writing something, but Rumblin is so much smarter than I am. Read his.
5.) UCLA – I don’t trust the Bruins, and this is the team that could make me look stupid. Talent wise, they may be the best team in the conference. But Between Steve Alford’s coaching, the lackadaisical attitude from half of the players on the team and the fan bases delusions of grandeur, I can’t see this team meeting its goals. Lorenzo Ball is going to allow Bryce Alford to take #DaddyBall to its more beneficial off guard position. Isaac Hamilton is a potential All-Pac-12 player and Welsh and TJ Leaf give the Bruins a very formidable frontcourt. Similar to USC, they have the firepower, but do they have the defense? Unlike the Trojans, I don’t think they’ll be able to pull it off.
6.) Cal – They have arguably the conference player of the year in Ivan Rabb and a damn good second banana in Jabari Bird. But I don’t see them doing what many others do this year. Who’s going to get Rabb the ball down low? Sam Singer is solid, but he’s going to have to seriously up his game to be at the level Cal needs him to be. Grad transfer Grant Mullins from Columbia could push Singer, and he will help with an outside shot, but I just don’t know if he can get Rabb the ball like Rabb needs. If he can match his 21.5 ARate to 13.0 TORate from last year, he may be the answer but I have my doubts.
7.) Oregon State – I’m higher on the Beavers than most. I went back and forth between Oregon State and Utah for this spot as both are teams losing huge keys that are boosted by great coaches, but ultimately I gave the Beavers the edge. Tres Tinkle and Steven Thompson came in with much fanfare two years ago, and haven’t quite lived up to their billing. Overshadowed by Gary Payton Jr, they put up solid numbers but nothing spectacular. With Payton gone, they may be stepping up. The hope is that JaQuori McLaughlin can run the show enough to allow them to do their thing. Losing Malcolm Duvivier hurts them, but ultimately I can’t count out a Tinkle led team. Oregon State is going to be annoying and they’re going to be a hard game every time they step on the court. They just don’t have the firepower to break into the top half of the conference this year.
8.) Utah – I absolutely love Kyle Kuzma, and I think Larry Krystkowiak is one of the most underrated coaches in the nation, but it’s going to be a bit of a down year for the Utes. I fully think this will be a one year dip and they’ll be back next year, so think of this as a less dysfunctional version of CU’s 2014-15 season. Lorenzo Bonam will be a solid second banana, but there’s a bit of a drop off after him and some unproven players. There’s a long list of transfer and JUCO players looking to step up and fill out the roster. David Collette – a junior transfer from Utah State – will be eligible by P12 play and should help them solidify the middle of the post – especially when paired with JUCO transfer Tyler Rawson. Rawson led Salt Lake Community College to the NJCAA national title last year, so he should be able to contribute from day one. Bonam is going to have to run the point for the Utes until some of the other backcourt players get settled and can provide him a little relief. Ultimately, some of these guys will hit – we just don’t know who or if they will in time for Pac-12 play. But I like the Utes to be back dancing in one year.
9.) Washington – Markelle Fultz is a potential number one pick in the NBA draft and will easily keep the Huskies on the list of dangerous teams in the Pac-12. The problem is that once you get past Fultz, the cupboard doesn’t look real good. David Crisp tore it up on the Huskies international trip down under this year (putting up 13 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists a game) showing that he’ll be a good second banana to Fultz, and Dominic Green has the potential to be a weapon for the Huskies but I don’t know what they’re going to do up front. Bigger teams are going to eat them alive, so UDub’s best hope is to get into a small lineup and draw teams into shootouts. They’ll get more freshmen help in the backcourt from Carlos Johnson and Bitumba Baruti (although Baruti may play small ball 4 for the Huskies). Ultimately though, I feel like this season is going to be a repeat for Washington of the last few – a season with some bright spots, a lot of disappointment and a “well, when next year’s recruits come in, things will be different” comment.
10.) Stanford – Outside of UCLA, this is the team that could make me look the dumbest. I don’t know if my distaste of Stanford comes from the talent on their roster or from Johnny Dawkins. It’s been said for years that no one did less with more than Dawkins and his blank stare from the sideline so if new coach Jarod Haase can take this talent and make it jell, Stanford could quickly climb up the standings. Dorian Pickens and Reid Travis give the Cardinal a nice one-two combo. Add in Michael Humphrey and Grant Verhoeven and I actually really like Stanford’s frontcourt. But who will get them the ball? If Robert Cartwright is healthy, he may be able to live up to the expectations he faced last year before getting hurt in the preseason and costing him his season. We’ve seen Marcus Allen and Christian Sanders try to run the point and it isn’t pretty. If Cartwright steps up, the Cardinal are going to make me look dumb. If he doesn’t, it’s going to be a long year in Palo Alto.
11.) Arizona State – **** Arizona State. I respect the hell out of Bobby Hurley and can’t wait for him to leave the Devils high and dry. But this year is going to be rough for them. Tra Holder is a damn good player and you know Shannon Evans can play if Hurley was willing to bring him from Buffalo, but there’s not a whole lot there behind them. Hurley is high on Sam Cunliffe – a true freshman who was the Washington HS Player of the Year last year. But the Devils are going to be pushed around up front. So Hurley’s going to be stuck in the desert for one more year until he can escape to a better job barring something unforeseen.
12.) Washington State – Josh Hawkinson is a stud. He’ll put up a double double every night and make teams pay that don’t double him. But everyone is going to double him as there is no talent around him to make them pay. Ike Iroegbu is their second best player and while he’s solid, he’s not going to be making any All-Pac-12 teams. And when you have the worst coach in the conference you aren’t going to outscheme more talented teams. I think all of us just need to pray that Wazzu wins enough that they think Kent needs to come back for one more year – and give us another year of reprieve from him calling P12 basketball games on the Pac-12 Networks.
1.) Oregon – I absolutely hate Dana Altman with a passion. He’s a jackass, he’s hated by the other coaches in the P12, and I hope he gets burned hard by the issues they had involving players and Title IX violations two years ago. But get rid of him and this is the most fun team to cheer for in the conference this year that doesn’t have a beautiful buffalo on its jersey. Oregon can throw so many talented guys out there that are interchangeable, and they’re going to be a blast. Leading the way is Dillon Brooks – a potential All American. Brooks has a great all-around game that is a perfect complement to Keyser Soze – er, Tyler Dorsey’s ability to score and Dylan Ennis and Casey Benson’s smooth PG play. They’re going to miss Elgin Cook and Dwayne Benjamin, but they still have Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell up front and Kavell Bigby-Williams is a Boucher clone. People are sleeping on them because of their name, but they’re a Final Four contender.
2.) Arizona – With the Ray Smiith injury/retirement and the Chance Commanche and Alonzo Trier suspensions, Arizona only has about a 7 man rotation right now. But it’s a damn good 7 guys. Trier hurts. A lot. There are rumors he may be out for the season, and if so it limits their ceiling, but Lauri Markkanen has been exceeding all expectations so far this pre-season and could be a potential All-Pac-12 guy. I also, in my continued defense of all Pac-12 PGs who are hated by their own fanbase, think Parker Jackson-Cartwright is going to have a good year and show why he was a 5* recruit two years ago. They’ll play defense, Sean Miller will soak through shirts, and they’ll make the sweet 16 again.
3.) USC – When I saw the USA Today preview that had them at third, I laughed. And then I thought about it and it makes sense. They were damn good last year and while they lost Julian Jacobs and Nikola Jovanovic (and, to a lesser extent, Katin Reinhardt who could be addition by subtraction), they still return a damn good backcourt in Jordan McLaughlin and Elijah Stewart. Add in Bennie Boatwright and the high paced offense that Andy Enfield always has, and they’ll have some firepower up front. Can they play D and rebound? I think they’ll be able to do just enough to let DJ Mal-Ski turn the volume to 11.
4.) Colorado – I thought about writing something, but Rumblin is so much smarter than I am. Read his.
5.) UCLA – I don’t trust the Bruins, and this is the team that could make me look stupid. Talent wise, they may be the best team in the conference. But Between Steve Alford’s coaching, the lackadaisical attitude from half of the players on the team and the fan bases delusions of grandeur, I can’t see this team meeting its goals. Lorenzo Ball is going to allow Bryce Alford to take #DaddyBall to its more beneficial off guard position. Isaac Hamilton is a potential All-Pac-12 player and Welsh and TJ Leaf give the Bruins a very formidable frontcourt. Similar to USC, they have the firepower, but do they have the defense? Unlike the Trojans, I don’t think they’ll be able to pull it off.
6.) Cal – They have arguably the conference player of the year in Ivan Rabb and a damn good second banana in Jabari Bird. But I don’t see them doing what many others do this year. Who’s going to get Rabb the ball down low? Sam Singer is solid, but he’s going to have to seriously up his game to be at the level Cal needs him to be. Grad transfer Grant Mullins from Columbia could push Singer, and he will help with an outside shot, but I just don’t know if he can get Rabb the ball like Rabb needs. If he can match his 21.5 ARate to 13.0 TORate from last year, he may be the answer but I have my doubts.
7.) Oregon State – I’m higher on the Beavers than most. I went back and forth between Oregon State and Utah for this spot as both are teams losing huge keys that are boosted by great coaches, but ultimately I gave the Beavers the edge. Tres Tinkle and Steven Thompson came in with much fanfare two years ago, and haven’t quite lived up to their billing. Overshadowed by Gary Payton Jr, they put up solid numbers but nothing spectacular. With Payton gone, they may be stepping up. The hope is that JaQuori McLaughlin can run the show enough to allow them to do their thing. Losing Malcolm Duvivier hurts them, but ultimately I can’t count out a Tinkle led team. Oregon State is going to be annoying and they’re going to be a hard game every time they step on the court. They just don’t have the firepower to break into the top half of the conference this year.
8.) Utah – I absolutely love Kyle Kuzma, and I think Larry Krystkowiak is one of the most underrated coaches in the nation, but it’s going to be a bit of a down year for the Utes. I fully think this will be a one year dip and they’ll be back next year, so think of this as a less dysfunctional version of CU’s 2014-15 season. Lorenzo Bonam will be a solid second banana, but there’s a bit of a drop off after him and some unproven players. There’s a long list of transfer and JUCO players looking to step up and fill out the roster. David Collette – a junior transfer from Utah State – will be eligible by P12 play and should help them solidify the middle of the post – especially when paired with JUCO transfer Tyler Rawson. Rawson led Salt Lake Community College to the NJCAA national title last year, so he should be able to contribute from day one. Bonam is going to have to run the point for the Utes until some of the other backcourt players get settled and can provide him a little relief. Ultimately, some of these guys will hit – we just don’t know who or if they will in time for Pac-12 play. But I like the Utes to be back dancing in one year.
9.) Washington – Markelle Fultz is a potential number one pick in the NBA draft and will easily keep the Huskies on the list of dangerous teams in the Pac-12. The problem is that once you get past Fultz, the cupboard doesn’t look real good. David Crisp tore it up on the Huskies international trip down under this year (putting up 13 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists a game) showing that he’ll be a good second banana to Fultz, and Dominic Green has the potential to be a weapon for the Huskies but I don’t know what they’re going to do up front. Bigger teams are going to eat them alive, so UDub’s best hope is to get into a small lineup and draw teams into shootouts. They’ll get more freshmen help in the backcourt from Carlos Johnson and Bitumba Baruti (although Baruti may play small ball 4 for the Huskies). Ultimately though, I feel like this season is going to be a repeat for Washington of the last few – a season with some bright spots, a lot of disappointment and a “well, when next year’s recruits come in, things will be different” comment.
10.) Stanford – Outside of UCLA, this is the team that could make me look the dumbest. I don’t know if my distaste of Stanford comes from the talent on their roster or from Johnny Dawkins. It’s been said for years that no one did less with more than Dawkins and his blank stare from the sideline so if new coach Jarod Haase can take this talent and make it jell, Stanford could quickly climb up the standings. Dorian Pickens and Reid Travis give the Cardinal a nice one-two combo. Add in Michael Humphrey and Grant Verhoeven and I actually really like Stanford’s frontcourt. But who will get them the ball? If Robert Cartwright is healthy, he may be able to live up to the expectations he faced last year before getting hurt in the preseason and costing him his season. We’ve seen Marcus Allen and Christian Sanders try to run the point and it isn’t pretty. If Cartwright steps up, the Cardinal are going to make me look dumb. If he doesn’t, it’s going to be a long year in Palo Alto.
11.) Arizona State – **** Arizona State. I respect the hell out of Bobby Hurley and can’t wait for him to leave the Devils high and dry. But this year is going to be rough for them. Tra Holder is a damn good player and you know Shannon Evans can play if Hurley was willing to bring him from Buffalo, but there’s not a whole lot there behind them. Hurley is high on Sam Cunliffe – a true freshman who was the Washington HS Player of the Year last year. But the Devils are going to be pushed around up front. So Hurley’s going to be stuck in the desert for one more year until he can escape to a better job barring something unforeseen.
12.) Washington State – Josh Hawkinson is a stud. He’ll put up a double double every night and make teams pay that don’t double him. But everyone is going to double him as there is no talent around him to make them pay. Ike Iroegbu is their second best player and while he’s solid, he’s not going to be making any All-Pac-12 teams. And when you have the worst coach in the conference you aren’t going to outscheme more talented teams. I think all of us just need to pray that Wazzu wins enough that they think Kent needs to come back for one more year – and give us another year of reprieve from him calling P12 basketball games on the Pac-12 Networks.
