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Here's my bracket guess (fire away)

Buffnik

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
I'm curious to see how I'll do against Lunardi and Palm tomorrow.

SOUTHMIDWESTWESTEAST
1.Florida1. Wichita State1. Arizona1. Virginia
2. Wisconsin2. Michigan2. Louisville2. Villanova
3. Duke3. Kansas3. Michigan St3. Iowa State
4. Creighton4. SDSU4. Cincinnati4. Syracuse
5. New Mexico5. Kentucky5. VCU5. UCLA
6. Oklahoma6. UConn6. North Carolina6. Ohio State
7. Oregon7. Texas7. Baylor7. Gonzaga
8. St. Louis8. UMass8. Memphis8. George Washington
9. Pittsburgh9. Oklahoma St9. Providence9. Colorado
10. St. Joseph's10. Stanford10. Tennessee10. Kansas State
11. Arizona St11. Xavier11. Nebraska11. Iowa
11. BYU
12. SF Austin12. Harvard12. N Dakota State12. SMU
12. NC State
13. Manhattan13. Delaware13. Tulsa13. W Michigan
14. E Kentucky14. LA-Lafayette14. Mercer14. NM State
15. NC Central15. American U15.WI - Milwaukee15. Weber St
16. TX Southern16. Albany16. Coastal Carolina16. Wofford
16. Cal Poly16. Mt. St. Mary's
 
What a huge drop off between 7 and 8 in terms of quality (I don't disagree with your seeds there, just a noticeable gap).

NC State would certainly be a surprise, although I also don't know why they're considered to be as far off as they are by the bracket guys.
 
CVilleBuff said:
What a huge drop off between 7 and 8 in terms of quality (I don't disagree with your seeds there, just a noticeable gap).

NC State would certainly be a surprise, although I also don't know why they're considered to be as far off as they are by the bracket guys.
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Yeah. Firepower goes way down at that cut line. Strangely, firepower goes back up with some of the seeds after that but bi-polar disorder kicks in.

P.S. After posting, I made a couple adjustments along seed lines to avoid a couple conference matchups in the Round of 32.
 
I still think the Duke/UVA winner could get a #1 seed but both seem to be discounted by just about everyone in the media. I could see where in the end UVA's numbers aren't strong enough to get them a 1 seed but Duke's numbers are very solid. I'm surprised Duke is not in considered to be in consideration for a 1-seed.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
I still think the Duke/UVA winner could get a #1 seed but both seem to be discounted by just about everyone in the media. I could see where in the end UVA's numbers aren't strong enough to get them a 1 seed but Duke's numbers are very solid. I'm surprised Duke is not in considered to be in consideration for a 1-seed.
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I think Duke is more likely if they win to get a #1 seed, they'll have defeated UVA twice after all. UVA has an outside shot at a #1 seed if they win.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
I still think the Duke/UVA winner could get a #1 seed but both seem to be discounted by just about everyone in the media. I could see where in the end UVA's numbers aren't strong enough to get them a 1 seed but Duke's numbers are very solid. I'm surprised Duke is not in considered to be in consideration for a 1-seed.
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The thing with Duke is that they weren't even close to winning the conference in the regular season. It's tough to get on the 1 line with 7 losses. Michigan gets that nod based on winning the B1G regular season and (assuming) follows that up by winning the B1G conference tourney.

Frankly, the 2s and 3s I have (plus Cuse on the 4 line) could be put in any order you want them and any argument would be splitting hairs. More than any other year, I could see this year's Dance having a Final Four that doesn't include any 1-seeds. That said, if Ashley hadn't gotten hurt then Arizona would be a runaway favorite in this thing. If Embiid hadn't gotten hurt for Kansas, they'd probably be our 4th #1 and have a better record. What if Syracuse hadn't lost Coleman for the year? Injuries have brought who I think had the 3 best teams back to the field.
 
Good stuff Nik, it will be interesting to see how this compares to the actual thing. I don't think picking the 68 (really 32) is too tough, but the seedings aren't easy.
 
cubuffs85 said:
Good stuff Nik, it will be interesting to see how this compares to the actual thing. I don't think picking the 68 (really 32) is too tough, but the seedings aren't easy.
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The team I'm very curious about is BYU. Resume is there and may actually justify a 9-seed. But they've got a lot of losses for a team from a non-power conference, some bad ones in there, and lost their best player to injury in the WCC championship. Might they get passed over for a Southern Miss or Florida State or Cal or Missouri or Minnesota?
 
Splitting hairs when it comes to the seeds is definitely true, not really any different when it comes to picking which bubble teams to let in. And don't forget that they will often move a team up or down a seed to avoid conference match-ups early or to put teams in a certain region.
 
CVilleBuff said:
What a huge drop off between 7 and 8 in terms of quality (I don't disagree with your seeds there, just a noticeable gap).

NC State would certainly be a surprise, although I also don't know why they're considered to be as far off as they are by the bracket guys.
Click to expand...

I put them in over Iowa.

D1 Record: 21-13 vs 20-12
RPI: 55 vs 63
SOS: 32 vs 58
Conf: 11-10 vs 9-10
Recent: 4-1 vs 1-6

Iowa has a couple more high quality wins. Each have 2 "bad" losses (101-150 range). Record away from home is about the same.
 
Made some adjustments. On consideration, you can't have a team win the ACC regular season and tourney... and not put them on the 2 line. That would be criminal. UVA bumps up.

Iowa State ended up being the team that took the hit.

Also, on the 11 line I realized I had made a mistake with the teams I had in the play-in. It's the last 2 seeds from the 11 line. That caused some adjustment there.
 
Buffnik said:
Made some adjustments. On consideration, you can't have a team win the ACC regular season and tourney... and not put them on the 2 line. That would be criminal. UVA bumps up.

Iowa State ended up being the team that took the hit.

Also, on the 11 line I realized I had made a mistake with the teams I had in the play-in. It's the last 2 seeds from the 11 line. That caused some adjustment there.
Click to expand...

Believe UVA is only the 7th or 8th team to win ACC regular season and tournament. They've got to be a 2, it's much deserved
 
CVilleBuff said:
Zags or anyone from a non-power conference would be to our advantage. Gonzaga was one last second shot away from being on the bubble.
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Exactly. Lunardi's bracket is a joke. How is Oregon a 7 and we are a 10? Stanford is a 9. Whatever we have rehashed this so many times, but he has us playing Gonzaga as of now. Wouldn't mind the ten if that was the case.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Hope whoever we play isn't as lame as Illinois fans were.
Click to expand...

Zags fans would be crazy. Their "SlipperStillFits.com" board was one of the best around for hoops. Not sure if it's as good since they became part of SBNation, though. But still a very passionate and knowledgeable fan base that is active online.
 
Buffnik said:
Zags fans would be crazy. Their "SlipperStillFits.com" board was one of the best around for hoops. Not sure if it's as good since they became part of SBNation, though. But still a very passionate and knowledgeable fan base that is active online.
Click to expand...

God help us if we draw those dumb****s from KState.
 
Buffnik said:
Zags fans would be crazy. Their "SlipperStillFits.com" board was one of the best around for hoops. Not sure if it's as good since they became part of SBNation, though. But still a very passionate and knowledgeable fan base that is active online.
Click to expand...
I hate when the independent sites go more mainstream.
 
I'm starting to reconsider leaving Iowa and am going to bump Dayton. 6th place in the B1G is better than 6th in the A-10.

Edit: Made some changes (put Iowa in and re-arranged with the assumption that Michigan State will beat Michigan).
 
Buffnik said:
I'm starting to reconsider leaving Iowa and am going to bump Dayton. 6th place in the B1G is better than 6th in the A-10.
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It's the question of whether they really go through with giving Dayton a home game. It would be a complete rotten deal for the opponent unless you match Dayton with Xavier to give it a semblance of a neutral environment.
 
CVilleBuff said:
It's the question of whether they really go through with giving Dayton a home game. It would be a complete rotten deal for the opponent unless you match Dayton with Xavier to give it a semblance of a neutral environment.
Click to expand...

That's a potential problem with always having the play-in games in Dayton, although I think the rule about not being able to play on your homecourt but being able to play basically across the street from your campus is pretty ridiculous. Duke/UNC being allowed to play in Raleigh, Kansas being allowed to play in KC, Wisconsin playing in Milwaukee, etc. The rule should be that you can play withing 200 miles (or some determined distance) of your campus.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
That's a potential problem with always having the play-in games in Dayton, although I think the rule about not being able to play on your homecourt but being able to play basically across the street from your campus is pretty ridiculous. Duke/UNC being allowed to play in Raleigh, Kansas being allowed to play in KC, Wisconsin playing in Milwaukee, etc. The rule should be that you can play withing 200 miles (or some determined distance) of your campus.
Click to expand...
The movement to the current system really picked up in 2001 when Maryland (#3 seed), George Mason, and Georgetown all ended 2k+ miles away in Boise.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Ron Wellman: "We rely on eye test quite a bit".

Wellman makes me nervous, not going to lie.
Click to expand...

That's how teams like Oregon, Baylor, Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Tennessee and Memphis could end up way over-seeded. No doubt they've got the firepower and athletes to beat anyone, but you also have to show it on the court.

To me, the RPI is more a measure of "SCOREBOARD" than the other stuff. How much did you win? Where did you win? What quality of teams did you beat? What quality of teams did you lose to? That's a lot more relevant to me than who might look impressive.

Put it another way... Butler's 2 straight Final Four teams didn't pass any eyeball tests.
 
All results are in with Michigan State and Florida winning. I wonder how I did.
 
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