Home Court Advantage & PPG Home/Away

[jgisland]

I have put together a bunch of stats and will post ones I find interesting as the season goes on. Here are a couple on Home vs Away Point Per game scoring as well as one on Home Court Advantage for last year. Home court advantage is calculated on Home Win % - Away Win %.

Team	Home PPG	Away PPG	Diff	HCA factor (Home Winning Percent - Away Winning Percent)
ARIZONA	79.9	73.7	6.2	31.304
ARIZONA ST	64.7	63.3	1.4	34.5029
CALIFORNIA	76	68.2	7.8	32.706
COLORADO	84.7	74	10.7	55.1136
OREGON	72.8	65.4	7.4	22.5274
OREGON ST	72.6	65.7	6.9	13.3928
STANFORD	68.9	63.7	5.2	28.5425
UCLA	70.7	69.3	1.4	40.1515
USC	66.3	66.2	0.1	34.2857
UTAH	71.3	63.1	8.2	22.6006
WASHINGTON	90.5	76.8	13.7	50
WASHINGTON ST	75.8	69.8	6	26.5734

A couple of noteworthy things.

1) CU played very well at home last year, scoring 10.7 PPG more at home than on the road and winning 55% more games at home than on the road.

2) UCLA didn't score many more pts at home than away (1.4), but won 40% more games at home than on the road. This year UCLA will be playing their "Home" games at the Los Angeles Sports Arena which is right next to USC as Pauley Pavilion is being renovated.

Good article on their attempted adjustment to their new home here.

3) Washington was a monster at home

 

[CVilleBuff]

We're going to have some epic battles with Washington in upcoming years - some 105-103 type games.

 

[btbuff]

It would be awesome if we did this exact thing for the last couple years. Find out who has had the best average home field advantage. I'm guessing Washington.

 

[Buffnik]

Another great post, jgisland.

YMSSRA

Someone please hit him with their rep stick for me.

******************

Where we need to get is to be almost impossible to beat at home for anyone except the true elites while winning 50% on the road. When we get there, we'll be a consistent tournament team.

 

[Darth Snow]

Another great post, jgisland.

YMSSRA

Someone please hit him with their rep stick for me.

******************

Where we need to get is to be almost impossible to beat at home for anyone except the true elites while winning 50% on the road. When we get there, we'll be a consistent tournament team.

I hit him hard with my rep stick.

 

[jgisland]

It would be awesome if we did this exact thing for the last couple years. Find out who has had the best average home field advantage. I'm guessing Washington.

btbuff you are quite correct, Washington has had the best home court advantage over the last 5 years. However the Buffs are # 2 in HCA and PPG differential.

Below is the info for HCA (Home court advantage, which is calculated by Home Court Win % - Road Win %) as well as PPG differential (calculated by avg home points per game scored - avg away points per game scored).

	2010/2011	2009/2010	2008/2009	2007/2008	2006/2007	5 YR AVG
Team				HCA factor (Home Winning Percent - Away Winning Percent)
ARIZONA	31.304	32.38636364	66.818	12.5	9.049773756	30.41166384
ARIZONA ST	34.5029	38.75598086	21.25	32.02614379	30.55555556	31.41811604
CALIFORNIA	32.706	38.23529412	38.889	1.212121212	15.55555556	25.31957195
COLORADO	55.1136	64.583	47.059	16.923	31.6667	43.06902
OREGON	22.5274	21.53110048	15.294	33.33333333	32.14285714	24.96576172
OREGON ST	13.3928	29.23076923	25.481	6.043956044	19.02834008	18.63532692
STANFORD	28.5425	45.83333333	45.701	34.52380952	30.55555556	37.03131118
UCLA	40.1515	32.5	24.211	3.333333333	25.21367521	25.08180697
USC	34.2857	50.56818182	63.889	3.03030303	32.80632411	36.91587957
UTAH	22.6006	19.6078	41.346	38.6363	55.3571	35.50958
WASHINGTON	50	49.47368421	30	22.5	81.66666667	46.72807018
WASHINGTON ST	26.5734	43.75	10.795	-5.76923077	14.97975709	18.06587617
				PPG H/A DIFF
TEAM	2010/2011	2009/2010	2008/2009	2007/2008	2006/2007	5 YR AVG
ARIZONA	6.2	5.3	5.3	8.5	2.9	5.64
ARIZONA ST	1.4	3.1	6.7	10.4	12.5	6.82
CALIFORNIA	7.8	3.7	5	-3.6	8	4.18
COLORADO	10.7	2.6	2.2	7.5	13.3	7.26
OREGON	7.4	3.5	8.9	9.6	0.6	6
OREGON ST	6.9	1.4	-2.8	6.2	3.1	2.96
STANFORD	5.2	3.2	3.4	4.8	5.8	4.48
UCLA	1.4	6.4	6.9	7.5	2.7	4.98
USC	0.1	0.6	4.4	3.1	10.9	3.82
UTAH	8.2	6.7	4.3	4.3	4.8	5.66
WASHINGTON	13.7	2.6	1.4	15.2	9	8.38
WASHINGTON ST	6	-0.9	1.8	2.8	-0.2	1.9

 

[Buffnik]

I'm not sure how I feel about the HCA stat. I think it's suggestive more than definitive. For example, let's say a team wins 90% of its games at home but 80% on the road. That team would be a +10. If another team wins 50% of its home games and 20% of its road games, it would be a +30. There's value here, but I think that it may point more to being a bad road team (or just plain bad or good) in a lot of cases versus being especially good at home.

 

[jgisland]

I'm not sure how I feel about the HCA stat. I think it's suggestive more than definitive. For example, let's say a team wins 90% of its games at home but 80% on the road. That team would be a +10. If another team wins 50% of its home games and 20% of its road games, it would be a +30. There's value here, but I think that it may point more to being a bad road team (or just plain bad or good) in a lot of cases versus being especially good at home.

Completely agree, the HCA stat in itself only tells part of the story, you need to look at the overall team records in conjunction, but as the sample size gets bigger (5 years is still a relatively small sample size) it does start to actually tell a story. You also need to look at the bigger picture, PPG Home vs Road helps tell that as well as H vs R tempo.


There is an interesting read here on a study about college basketball HCA. It also may put you to sleep.......

Or is it all about the ball?

 

[btbuff]

Jgisland if I could rep you I would. Excellent work.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

Jgisland if I could rep you I would. Excellent work.

gotcha covered

 

[jgisland]

Ken Pomeroy has an article on HCA today featured in ESPN (insider access required). He used a similar methodology as I did, taking home margin of victory vs. away margin of victory. He did this for the all of DI but didn't publish the whole list. He basically found that HCA has more to do with altitude and travel than a hostile crowd, high altitude schools Utah Valley and DU were in the top 10. No mention of CU but worth the read.

 

[Nor Cal Buff]

Ken Pomeroy has an article on HCA today featured in ESPN (insider access required). He used a similar methodology as I did, taking home margin of victory vs. away margin of victory. He did this for the all of DI but didn't publish the whole list. He basically found that HCA has more to do with altitude and travel than a hostile crowd, high altitude schools Utah Valley and DU were in the top 10. No mention of CU but worth the read.

A lot of research suggests that HCA doesn't have a ton to do with a hostile crowd but rather is mostly from familiarity with surroundings. Of course altitude is another factor that definitely has an impact. It's more geared towards football, but advancednflstats.com has some good posts on the topic of HCA/HFA.

 

[DesertDawg526]

Would not be surprised at all if CU has the biggest HCA in the upcoming years.

 

[SECOBuffsFan]

Boyle has made Boulder a nearly impossible place to win - we should have beaten Kansas in here last year but that was the best team we have faced in Boulder during Boyle's short but fabulous tenure here....it still baffles me how Wyoming beat us.

 

[Buffnik]

Maybe the band could signal it by blasting a funeral dirge -- dum, dum, da-dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum.

 

[jgisland]

This isn't going to happen, but I think the student section should be moved into the north bleachers, that way the opposing team would have to basically walk through the student section to get to the locker room. I haven't walked out that tunnel, but I have to imagine if you had all of the students jumping up and down on those bleachers it would feel like the roof was going to cave in when you walked through there. Now that would be HCA.

 

[Ruckus]

Maybe the band could signal it by blasting a funeral dirge -- dum, dum, da-dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum.

I seriously want the other teams to be afraid to be here. Lets get a coffin in the student section, play funeral music, put fake blood near their bench, write the names and addresses of their family members on posters, bite heads off of bats, all sorts of fun **** we can do.

 

[Darth Snow]

I seriously want the other teams to be afraid to be here. Lets get a coffin in the student section, play funeral music, put fake blood near their bench, write the names and addresses of their family members on posters, bite heads off of bats, all sorts of fun **** we can do.

start at the 00:20 mark. [video=youtube;6PQ6335puOc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PQ6335puOc[/video]