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How do the Buffs fare in their first five Pac 12 games?

How do the Buffs (10-3, RPI 70, UNR AP, 37 Coaches) fare in their first five Pac 12 games?

  • Total voters
    54
  • Poll closed .
hokiehead

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain
Club Member
OK, I'm a little scared of our early conference schedule. UU and ASU wouldn't be worrisome at Coors, but nothing's easy on the Pac 12 road. I don't like three roadies to start the year, and I don't like the first two home Pac games being against the top ranked teams (by RPI) in the conference.

But nothing worthwhile comes cheap.

1/1 @ Utah (9-3, RPI 182, UNR AP, UNR Coaches)
1/5 @ ASU (7-6, RPI 129, UNR AP, UNR Coaches)
1/7 @ AU (11-2, RPI 27, 18 AP, 18 Coaches)
1/12 UCLA (13-0, RPI 20, 2 AP, 2 Coaches)
1/15 USC (13-0, RPI 12, 22 AP, 22 Coaches)

on a positive note, i do like the way the season finishes up with three in a row at home
 
Goose said:
Strongly disagree there. This is UCLA's to lose. And even if they stumble, Oregon is right there.
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Looking at the schedule, 4-1 leaves a final 13 with 7 at home and 3 of the top 4 teams not being played again. I figure that maintaining the level of play they'd be on pace to go at least 10-3 in those.

Honestly, I reacted so strongly because 4-1 is so far above what I'm expecting. I voted for 2-3 and expect a 10-8 or 11-7 conference year. "4-1" talk dropped my jaw a bit.
 
4-1 would be almost insane according to what we've seen thus far. Even with a Xavier win (those guys don't ever play at altitude do they?). I'm hoping for it of course. Hoping for 5-0. Hoping for an NCAA championship. Go Buffs!
 
I said 4-1 because why the hell not??? I still want to be bullish with this team. Utah is a winnable game, they really need to make it happen.
 
I really want to be as bullish on this team as I was at the start of the year, but after sitting through so many games, I just couldn't....1-4.
 
3-2 is the expectation, anything better I'm feeling real good, 2-3 I'm a little disappointed. CU is better than Utah and ASU this year but conference road games are always tough. Arizona is down this year and CU gets up for big opponents so I'm thinking 2-1 is a reasonable expectation for this road swing. Hoping for a home split against the LA schools. Oregon showed last night that UCLA is not invincible and CU has owned USC in basketball since joining the PAC.
 
Based on performance so far this year, 0-5 is as likely as 3-2 or better. I'd say CU and Utah are equal this season, and if Kuzma plays Sunday, Utah wins fairly easily being at home. USC owned CU the last time they played. If CU can't hit open shots, Zona and UCLA games will be 15+ point losses. I'm hoping CU can win at ASU, then surprise me with another win or two in this stretch, but they've shown me little so far that indicates the ability to be better than a 7 or 8 win team in the PAC-12.
 
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99'Buff said:
Based on performance so far this year, 0-5 is as likely as 3-2 or better. I'd say CU and Utah are equal this season, and if Kuzma plays Sunday, Utah wins fairly easily being at home. USC owned CU the last time they played. If CU can't hit open shots, Zona and UCLA games will be 15+ point losses. I'm hoping CU can win at ASU, then surprise me with another win or two in this stretch, but they've shown me little so far that indicates the ability to be better than a 7 or 8 win team in the PAC-12.
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That there is exactly why I voted "oh screw me" ... **shrugging shoulders in an "I have no idea" gesture**
 
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Buffs Basketball Fan said:
Please let conference season get here to put an end to all speculation.
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Haha. If we go by that we might as well say "please let the season be over so we can put an end to all this speculation." Or furthermore: "please let life be over..." etcetera etcetera etcetera.
 
Buffs Basketball Fan said:
Do you feel this way or just being negative to ease the blow should your predictions come to fruition.

Please let conference season get here to put an end to all speculation.
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I certainly hope my predictions are wrong. However, the performance through most of the out of conference schedule indicates that conference wins will be tough to come by. Defense, especially on the perimeter, hasn't been great. Rebounding has been very poor since CU returned from New York. Shooters (King, Fortune) aren't making open 3's. Free throw misses have become a huge problem. All of these factors point to losses in most of the conference road games and several home games, if they continue.

These problems also show that there is a great deal of room for improvement. Certainly, CU could start boxing out better and chasing down loose balls, hitting FTs more like last year (3-4% improvement), King start hitting over 40% of his 3's, etc. If that happens, then yes, I see them having a successful conference run. But to this point, they haven't shown that as a likely outcome. As Tad said, this team has the worst out of conference loss of his era as well as the worst win. Are those performances, both of which occurred in the past month, an aberration or a sign of what to expect in conference play?
 
What you say is true.
You however discount the same flaws and worse by 7 of the conference teams which they play 13 times. Play the top 4 this way and get 5 losses but could get a Xavier type win at home.
Take s look at Utah Ute board and they are just as pessimistic.
 
I agree that the Pac-12 is full of flawed teams this season. That gives CU a chance to win a lot of games in conference, but only if they play differently from what we've seen for much of the out of conference schedule. But is CU expected to correct their flaws while other teams won't do the same? If that happens, 12-13 wins in conference is quite possible, and I'm certainly hoping that's what occurs. Given what we've seen so far though, I see a 1-4 start as the most likely outcome, then a split of the Pacific NW road trips, 0-2 in the Bay, and home losses to Oregon and one of the final 3 with wins in the rest of the home games. I say 8-10 is the most likely outcome, given performance season to date.
 
For the record, KenPom has us currently projected at 10-8 in conference.
 
So far this edition of Buff basketball has shown that they are capable of beating a very good team at home, and also of losing to a mediocre team at home, and playing poorly at CEC against other mediocre/weak teams. I'm trying to avoid being enthusiastic about 'talent' and potential until it translates into dominant play against mediocre teams. I'll give them a 9-9 in conference play, but could argue anywhere from 13-5 to 6-12.
 
Almost went with "oh, screw me," but figured I've been screwed enough.
 
Goose said:
4-1/3-2 depending on the Utah game.
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Well, we thought there was a good probability we'd be 2-0 at this point, even though some expected the 20 point loss to Utah. But it's still a fun ride if you distance a bit and kind of glaze your eyes. Something could click at any moment, and everyone could get excited again. We could end up 16-2.
 
Now have to make this up by beating a strong team at home.
USC
Ucla
Oregon

They were going to lose some conference games this season

6 to 9 was reasonable expectation or wishful thinking

Still obtainable
 
Birch1 said:
Well, we thought there was a good probability we'd be 2-0 at this point, even though some expected the 20 point loss to Utah. But it's still a fun ride if you distance a bit and kind of glaze your eyes. Something could click at any moment, and everyone could get excited again. We could end up 16-2.
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The problem with this team is that I can't 100% write them off. This is, by far, the most talented team top to bottom that Tad has ever had at CU. There's a less than 1% chance that things finally click for them, but if they do they could go on one hell of a run. But, at this point, it's becoming obvious that something is missing leadership/drive wise on the team, so as the days go by it becomes less and less likely. Expect another purging of the roster this off-season.
 
Goose said:
The problem with this team is that I can't 100% write them off. This is, by far, the most talented team top to bottom that Tad has ever had at CU. There's a less than 1% chance that things finally click for them, but if they do they could go on one hell of a run. But, at this point, it's becoming obvious that something is missing leadership/drive wise on the team, so as the days go by it becomes less and less likely. Expect another purging of the roster this off-season.
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Roster purging? They'll lose a fair amount of playing time/production with White, XJ, Fortune, and Wes graduating...not sure I can see more than one player transferring beyond that. Hopefully Tad has his eyes on a big-man transfer coming in.

I also just wan't GMFK to be GMFK :(
 
Comes down to making open shots.
They are there not making
A couple of well timed makes changes whole tenor of some of these games. BYU and ASU come to mind.
 
That was the most fun I've had watching this team all year. XJ can't do what he did. We win that game if he doesn't get kicked out.

Leadership. Missing. Hopefully that showing by White lets him take control of the team...

(that said, him giving up the losing rebound/foul really hurts)
 
Darth Snow said:
That was the most fun I've had watching this team all year. XJ can't do what he did. We win that game if he doesn't get kicked out.

Leadership. Missing. Hopefully that showing by White lets him take control of the team...

(that said, him giving up the losing rebound/foul really hurts)
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He was kinda pushed in to the ASU guy on that play. Shocking the refs didn't pick that up. Good lord they were bad.
 
Scotch said:
He was kinda pushed in to the ASU guy on that play. Shocking the refs didn't pick that up. Good lord they were bad.
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they were bad both ways. Some of those fouls on white when he drove were phantoms.
 
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