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Is the PAC12 guaranteed a slot in the top 4 now?

Tractor

Tractor

Club Member
Oregon's in the top 4 already with 2 easy games left (CU, Oregon State). These two wins would put them in the championship game.


ASU is currently 9th, coming off a win over top 10 ND. #3 (to an unranked team) and #7 lost. That puts ASU at #7. They have @Oregon State, Washington St, and @Zona left. MSU and Bama still play each other.


If either team wins out, they're in. The only (slightly realistic) stumbling block scenario would be Zona beating ASU and then ASU beating Oregon.


Would Oregon losing their conference championship game against a top 12 team knock them out of the playoff race?



I feel like the PAC12 today is closer to having 2 teams in the playoff as opposed to 0.

Barring some miracle upset, of course. Thoughts?
 
Tractor said:
Oregon's in the top 4 already with 2 easy games left (CU, Oregon State). These two wins would put them in the championship game.


ASU is currently 9th, coming off a win over top 10 ND. #3 (to an unranked team) and #7 lost. That puts ASU at #7. They have @Oregon State, Washington St, and @Zona left. MSU and Bama still play each other.


If either team wins out, they're in. The only (slightly realistic) stumbling block scenario would be Zona beating ASU and then ASU beating Oregon.


Would Oregon losing their conference championship game against a top 12 team knock them out of the playoff race?



I feel like the PAC12 today is closer to having 2 teams in the playoff as opposed to 0.

Barring some miracle upset, of course. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I just have this sick feeling that the committee will find a way to still put 3 SEC teams in. I think MSU and Alabama are definitely in, unless Bama loses to MSU.

I could see a scenario with both ASU and Oregon in but would need all of the SEC teams, except maybe one, to have two loses.
 
One of them has to win out to be in. A second loss for either team (which will definitely happen since they would have to play each other in the CCG) probably knocks out the second team.
 
Illegal Jesus said:
I just have this sick feeling that the committee will find a way to still put 3 SEC teams in. I think MSU and Alabama are definitely in, unless Bama loses to MSU.

I could see a scenario with both ASU and Oregon in but would need all of the SEC teams, except maybe one, to have two loses.
Click to expand...

MSU still has Ole Miss and Bama still has Auburn. And still play each other. MSU or Bama could end up with 3 losses.

Oregon wins out they are in
FSU wins out they are in
TCU wins out they are in
Bama wins out they are in
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
MSU still has Ole Miss and Bama still has Auburn. And still play each other. MSU or Bama could end up with 3 losses.

Oregon wins out they are in
FSU wins out they are in
TCU wins out they are in
Bama wins out they are in
Click to expand...
I think that would be a good playoff. One team from each division.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
MSU still has Ole Miss and Bama still has Auburn. And still play each other. MSU or Bama could end up with 3 losses.

Oregon wins out they are in
FSU wins out they are in
TCU wins out they are in
Bama wins out they are in
Click to expand...

Would watch.
 
Highlander said:
One of them has to win out to be in. A second loss for either team (which will definitely happen since they would have to play each other in the CCG) probably knocks out the second team.
Click to expand...
No way. A close loss by one to the other in the CCG just proves how tough the conference is and why both should be in the playoffs.

Wait. Are we still talking about the SEC?
 
If Oregon wins out they're in for sure.
If ASU wins out then they will likely be in although it will mostly depend on what teams in front of them do. Let's say ASU, Ohio State, and TCU all win out and they're vying for the last spot? Just one of the many hypothetical situations that could play out.
I really don't think the loser of the Pac-12 CG gets in.
 
I think Mich St loss helps remove one potential thorn. Ducks win out.... Think they are in. ASU, just not sure but I suppose.

I think Ducks are in cause they are the cream of Pac. Curious to see if MSU hangs w AL.....

FSU in most likely. Open chair for the other spot. TCU?
 
Don't think things are so simple for TCU. TCU has a Baylor problem. If the Bears win out, they will be Big XII champs, and have head-to-head win over TCU. I can't see the committee putting TCU in over Baylor in that scenario. I don't like it, but I think that may be how it plays out.
 
fwbuff said:
Don't think things are so simple for TCU. TCU has a Baylor problem. If the Bears win out, they will be Big XII champs, and have head-to-head win over TCU. I can't see the committee putting TCU in over Baylor in that scenario. I don't like it, but I think that may be how it plays out.
Click to expand...

I see TCU winning out over Baylor winning out. TCU at least plays a little defense. Catalon (damnit) is a hell of a back for the frogs. He is going to give them headaches.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
I see TCU winning out over Baylor winning out. TCU at least plays a little defense. Catalon (damnit) is a hell of a back for the frogs. He is going to give them headaches.
Click to expand...

I think they probably both win out. Just checked Baylor's schedule, and they have Ok St, @ Tech, and KSU left. That last one is tricky, but is in Waco. I'd be pleasantly surprised if Baylor loses any of those.

I don't think TCU controls its own destiny.
 
fwbuff said:
I think they probably both win out. Just checked Baylor's schedule, and they have Ok St, @ Tech, and KSU left. That last one is tricky, but is in Waco. I'd be pleasantly surprised if Baylor loses any of those.

I don't think TCU controls its own destiny.
Click to expand...

I always forget that the Big 12-2-2+2 doesn't have a CCG anymore.

(Using AP rankings)

#6 Baylor has OSU, TT, and #7KSU
#5 TCU has KU, UT, ISU

Baylor winning out will have 3 top 25 wins and the head to head
TCU winning out will have 5 top 25 wins

Frogs have the better resume. Baylor has the head to head. Tough choice.

TCU only loss was to #5 Baylor @ Waco by 3
Baylor only loss was to NR WVU @ Morgantown by 14

Baylor OOC is SMU, NWSt, and UBuffalo
TCU OOC is Samford, Minnesota, and SMU

TCU needs minnesota to finish the year strong make them a big win.
 
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TCU over Baylor

fwbuff said:
Don't think things are so simple for TCU. TCU has a Baylor problem. If the Bears win out, they will be Big XII champs, and have head-to-head win over TCU. I can't see the committee putting TCU in over Baylor in that scenario. I don't like it, but I think that may be how it plays out.
Click to expand...

Baylor has a WV problem. And Baylor lost soundly to WV. If the bears win out, they won't be sole Big XII champs, they will only have piece of that pie. Right now the CFP committee has already ranked TCU ahead of Baylor and TCU just beat a ranked KState team.
 
I don't believe there is any chance that Oregon would be in the top 4 if they lost the CCG and end up with two losses. Only SEC teams could remain in the top 4 would two losses. That's the unfortunate reality.
 
Colorado Track Fan said:
I don't believe there is any chance that Oregon would be in the top 4 if they lost the CCG and end up with two losses. Only SEC teams could remain in the top 4 would two losses. That's the unfortunate reality.
Click to expand...

No 2-loss team will be in the final four. Alabama and Miss State may both get in if Alabama wins this weekend, but not with a Miss State win.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
I always forget that the Big 12-2-2+2 doesn't have a CCG anymore.

(Using AP rankings)

#6 Baylor has OSU, TT, and #7KSU
#5 TCU has KU, UT, ISU

Baylor winning out will have 3 top 25 wins and the head to head
TCU winning out will have 5 top 25 wins

Frogs have the better resume. Baylor has the head to head. Tough choice.

TCU only loss was to #5 Baylor @ Waco by 3
Baylor only loss was to NR WVU @ Morgantown by 14

Baylor OOC is SMU, NWSt, and UBuffalo
TCU OOC is Samford, Minnesota, and SMU

TCU needs minnesota to finish the year strong make them a big win.
Click to expand...

In last week's rankings the committee had TCU 6th and Baylor 12th, that's a fairly significant difference. But Baylor has the SOS schedule advantage the rest of the way with a win over KSU that would help boost them plus a win over a decent Okie State team. If they both win out not only will Baylor have the head-to-head but would also be Big 12 champs. However the head-to-head was at Baylor and TCU was in control of that game much of way and led by 21 into the 4th quarter, so how much if at all will the committee look beyond just the final score? Definitely would be a tough choice between these 2.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
In last week's rankings the committee had TCU 6th and Baylor 12th, that's a fairly significant difference. But Baylor has the SOS schedule advantage the rest of the way with a win over KSU that would help boost them plus a win over a decent Okie State team. If they both win out not only will Baylor have the head-to-head but would also be Big 12 champs. However the head-to-head was at Baylor and TCU was in control of that game much of way and led by 21 into the 4th quarter, so how much if at all will the committee look beyond just the final score? Definitely would be a tough choice between these 2.
Click to expand...

Head to head trumps everything in my opinion, assuming similar records. It's almost farcical to to engage in convoluted rationale to determine which team is better when the two teams actually played each other on the football field.

That's like say that, "well, Federer beat Nadal in the finals, but Fed had an easier road to the finals and in previous tournaments struggled against lesser opponents....so we're going to go ahead and present the winner's trophy to Nadal.
 
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