I realize this is going to come across similar to someone whining about how Kate Upton is a ****ty girlfriend because she doesn't load the dishwasher properly, but I'm honestly concerned about our defense and think that something odd is going on here. If you look at our numbers, it appears that everything is going ok so far this season (overall ranking in parenthesis).
Overall - except for block rate, everything pretty much fits into where we would expect it to be. But this isn't matching up with what I'm seeing with my eyes. In the past, CU played a very straight up man to man defense. Very rarely did we switch on screens - and when we did it was usually a situation where you would see Dre & Spencer switch meaning that opponents went from one badass defender to another badass defender. It made sense. Tad had his guys get in the other guy's face, man up and say "you're not getting by me".
This year, I'm seeing a lot of switching on picks. Not only that, but we're showing at the three point line a lot more. It's less one on one defense, and a lot more scheme. And I don't think it's working to our favor. You're seeing a lot of guys that look like they're confused on defense the entire time. There were a few times where Wes' guy would set a pick against San Francisco, and you could see him being uncertain on if he was supposed to switch or if stay with his guy. And there were numerous times where XT got burned on fastbreaks because he couldn't even find his guy. The scheme seems to be setting our guys back.
Not only that, but I'm seeing a lot more freelancing on defense this year from our guys - specifically the guards. Dom, XT and JHop are really having a rough time staying in front of their guys. I'm seeing a lot of scrambling which leads to us being out of position and going for the steal after they have been burned (this is especially mindboggling for XT because he's a DAMN GOOD DEFENDER when he plays his guys straight up like he did his frosh year and part of last year. I genuinely don't understand his newfound desire to wander aimlessly). We've heard that Dom can play straight up D on a guy, and I know that XT can, so watching them scramble like this makes me think it's a schematic thing. And I don't get it.
This scrambling by the guards is "helping" us numbers wise in one regard - our blocks percentage is through the roof. Some of that needs to directed as praise towards Wes & Josh (and, surprisingly, DT who has a 3.8% block rate which is good enough for 366th in the nation right now), but it's leading to other issues. I know there have been debates over blocked shots in the past (cliffnotes version - I'm in the camp that thinks playing straight up D is better, others like buffnik legitimately argue that the intimidation factor of worrying about swats is worth whatever it may offset in scrambling. I'm not sure there is a "right" answer on this one, but I'm still going to say 'Nik is wrong), but it is having a detrimental effect on this year's team. From Hoop-Math.com, here are our numbers for shots at the rim:
We are giving up, by far, the most amount of shots at the rim that we have in the last four years - and this is alarming considering the quality of opponents we've played so far this season. Not only that, but when they get to the rim and don't have their shots blocked, they're shooting at a better percentage that any other year except for the 2013 squad which allowed so few shots at the rim that the percentage was negligible. The good news is that right now, Josh, Wes & DT ARE limiting opponents numbers at the rim right now. The high shot percentage is because of all of the switching. When Josh ends up on a guard, that guard has an easier time getting to the hoop for a shot than if he has someone smaller & quicker on them. This is also leading to opportunities for an easy dish off to someone under the basket (and CU's opponents are assisting on 61.1% of shots this year - a high under Tad).
Now while the numbers don't seem that alarming, let's just assume that a team gets 50 shots during a game (CU is currently averaging 49.67 this season). The following chart shows you how many shots per game our opponents are getting at the rim judging by those numbers, and using the unblocked FG%, the number of points they are scoring at the rim (not counting fouls).
Against the little sisters of the poor (and Wyoming), we're showing roughly the same number of points at the rim despite giving up an extra 2 shots a game there. I honestly question whether the numbers can withstand that against teams like Utah and Arizona. Opponents shooting % at rim:
Compare that to some Pac-12 teams (full disclaimer, UCLA, Furd and WSU are all in the 200s)
I'm not sure the numbers are sustainable. Another area where the scrambling is hurting us is on 3 point shots. We're seeing teams shoot a lot more three pointers against us. Right now, they're shooting at a lower percentage, but I honestly wonder if that's more to the quality of opponents than our D. Here are our shots from the three point line numbers:
The latest school of thought in basketball is shots at the rim and corner 3's are the best things you can take and mid-range shots are the worst. Unfortunately, that leaves us with only 14.5% of our shots being taken in the "best" spot to have an opponent shoot the ball. Want proof? Here is what CU is giving up on D this year.
And here are our historical numbers on 2 point jumpers:
Obviously, there's a small sample size warning to all of this, and I will fully admit that Tad and Co are much smarter than I am. MUCH smarter. And for that we should all be thankful. But I honestly don't understand the change in scheme this year. It doesn't seem to be helping us more, and it seems to be causing more confusion for our guys than for our opponents.
| DRtg | eFG% | TO% | OR% | FTRate | Blk% | |
| 2015 | 93.2 (41) | 44.1 (64) | 17.0 (306) | 24.9 (18) | 22.3 (5) | 15.6 (26) |
| 2014 | 96.9 (42) | 49.4 (159) | 17.8 (210) | 26.1 (6) | 30.4 (14) | 9.0 (197) |
| 2013 | 90.9 (19) | 45.9 (69) | 19.4 (207) | 30.4 (108) | 25.3 (6) | 8.6 (195) |
| 2012 | 94.2 (37) | 46.9 (75) | 18.4 (264) | 28.8 (50) | 32.0 (70) | 8.9 (171) |
Overall - except for block rate, everything pretty much fits into where we would expect it to be. But this isn't matching up with what I'm seeing with my eyes. In the past, CU played a very straight up man to man defense. Very rarely did we switch on screens - and when we did it was usually a situation where you would see Dre & Spencer switch meaning that opponents went from one badass defender to another badass defender. It made sense. Tad had his guys get in the other guy's face, man up and say "you're not getting by me".
This year, I'm seeing a lot of switching on picks. Not only that, but we're showing at the three point line a lot more. It's less one on one defense, and a lot more scheme. And I don't think it's working to our favor. You're seeing a lot of guys that look like they're confused on defense the entire time. There were a few times where Wes' guy would set a pick against San Francisco, and you could see him being uncertain on if he was supposed to switch or if stay with his guy. And there were numerous times where XT got burned on fastbreaks because he couldn't even find his guy. The scheme seems to be setting our guys back.
Not only that, but I'm seeing a lot more freelancing on defense this year from our guys - specifically the guards. Dom, XT and JHop are really having a rough time staying in front of their guys. I'm seeing a lot of scrambling which leads to us being out of position and going for the steal after they have been burned (this is especially mindboggling for XT because he's a DAMN GOOD DEFENDER when he plays his guys straight up like he did his frosh year and part of last year. I genuinely don't understand his newfound desire to wander aimlessly). We've heard that Dom can play straight up D on a guy, and I know that XT can, so watching them scramble like this makes me think it's a schematic thing. And I don't get it.
This scrambling by the guards is "helping" us numbers wise in one regard - our blocks percentage is through the roof. Some of that needs to directed as praise towards Wes & Josh (and, surprisingly, DT who has a 3.8% block rate which is good enough for 366th in the nation right now), but it's leading to other issues. I know there have been debates over blocked shots in the past (cliffnotes version - I'm in the camp that thinks playing straight up D is better, others like buffnik legitimately argue that the intimidation factor of worrying about swats is worth whatever it may offset in scrambling. I'm not sure there is a "right" answer on this one, but I'm still going to say 'Nik is wrong), but it is having a detrimental effect on this year's team. From Hoop-Math.com, here are our numbers for shots at the rim:
| % Of Shots | FG% | % of Shots Blocked | Unblocked FG% | |
| 2015 | 40.7 | 51.5 | 19.7 | 63.6 |
| 2014 | 36.9 | 56.6 | 9.8 | 62.7 |
| 2013 | 29.3 | 57.4 | 10.3 | 63.9 |
| 2012 | 34.4 | 53.2 | 12.4 | 60.7 |
We are giving up, by far, the most amount of shots at the rim that we have in the last four years - and this is alarming considering the quality of opponents we've played so far this season. Not only that, but when they get to the rim and don't have their shots blocked, they're shooting at a better percentage that any other year except for the 2013 squad which allowed so few shots at the rim that the percentage was negligible. The good news is that right now, Josh, Wes & DT ARE limiting opponents numbers at the rim right now. The high shot percentage is because of all of the switching. When Josh ends up on a guard, that guard has an easier time getting to the hoop for a shot than if he has someone smaller & quicker on them. This is also leading to opportunities for an easy dish off to someone under the basket (and CU's opponents are assisting on 61.1% of shots this year - a high under Tad).
Now while the numbers don't seem that alarming, let's just assume that a team gets 50 shots during a game (CU is currently averaging 49.67 this season). The following chart shows you how many shots per game our opponents are getting at the rim judging by those numbers, and using the unblocked FG%, the number of points they are scoring at the rim (not counting fouls).
| Shots At Rim | Points At Rim (Calculated) | |
| 2015 | 20.5 | 21.2 |
| 2014 | 18.5 | 21.0 |
| 2013 | 14.7 | 16.8 |
| 2012 | 17.2 | 18.4 |
Against the little sisters of the poor (and Wyoming), we're showing roughly the same number of points at the rim despite giving up an extra 2 shots a game there. I honestly question whether the numbers can withstand that against teams like Utah and Arizona. Opponents shooting % at rim:
| Rank | Team |
| 1 | Wyoming |
| 104 | Air Force |
| 238 | Drexel |
| 248 | Lipscomb |
| 267 | San Francisco |
| 284 | Auburn |
Compare that to some Pac-12 teams (full disclaimer, UCLA, Furd and WSU are all in the 200s)
| Rank | Team |
| 17 | Arizona |
| 20 | Utah |
| 62 | Cal |
| 67 | Colorado |
| 92 | Oregon |
I'm not sure the numbers are sustainable. Another area where the scrambling is hurting us is on 3 point shots. We're seeing teams shoot a lot more three pointers against us. Right now, they're shooting at a lower percentage, but I honestly wonder if that's more to the quality of opponents than our D. Here are our shots from the three point line numbers:
| Shots From 3 | Points At 3 (Calculated) | |
| 2015 | 22.4 | 20.1 |
| 2014 | 17.8 | 18.9 |
| 2013 | 18.3 | 17.7 |
| 2012 | 17.5 | 17.1 |
The latest school of thought in basketball is shots at the rim and corner 3's are the best things you can take and mid-range shots are the worst. Unfortunately, that leaves us with only 14.5% of our shots being taken in the "best" spot to have an opponent shoot the ball. Want proof? Here is what CU is giving up on D this year.
| Shot Type | FG% |
| At Rim | 51.1% |
| 2pt Jumper | 22.4% |
| 3pt Shots | 29.8% |
And here are our historical numbers on 2 point jumpers:
| % Of Shots | FG% | % of Shots Blocked | Unblocked FG% | |
| 2015 | 14.5 | 22.4 | 4.1 | 23.4 |
| 2014 | 27.6 | 35.0 | 7.3 | 37.8 |
| 2013 | 34.1 | 34.4 | 5.7 | 36.5 |
| 2012 | 30.6 | 35.0 | 3.7 | 36.4 |
Obviously, there's a small sample size warning to all of this, and I will fully admit that Tad and Co are much smarter than I am. MUCH smarter. And for that we should all be thankful. But I honestly don't understand the change in scheme this year. It doesn't seem to be helping us more, and it seems to be causing more confusion for our guys than for our opponents.
