wanted to see what others thought of this logic
one way to think about whether jr payne was a mistake hire for Buffs
payne a solid coach
twice built a program up to competitive level/postseason
but only wnit, never ncaa tournament
why does that matter?
64 teams make ncaa women's championship tournament
automatic 32 conf bids
32 at-large bids
there are no play-in games like men's tournament
wnit tournament unlike post-season men's nit tournament is not owned by ncaa
actually run by triple crown, right here in colorado up in the fort
teams must have overall .500 record or better (incl conf tournament)
64 teams make wnit women's championship tournament
automatic 32 (best available conf team based on reg season conf record)
32 at-large bids
if best team from conf declines automatic bid conf loses that spot goes to at-large pool
home games within bracket awarded based on bid (flat $$ or % of gate guaranteed to triple crown)
what does this have to do with jr payne hire?
ostensibly the best 64 teams make ncaa women's tournament
ostensibly the best 65-128 teams play in wnit
ostensibly the best 129-144 teams play in wbi (16 team postseason tourney)
jr payne first head coaching job was southern utah
jr payne in her 5th season at southern utah took team to wnit (2nd round exit)
exiting in 2nd round puts south utah somewhere between 81st and 92nd best team in country
getting to wnit gave opportunity for a better job
jr payne took second head coaching job at santa clara
jr payne in her 2nd season at santa clara took team to wnit (1st round exit)
exiting in the 1st round puts santa clara somewhere between 97th and 128th best team in country
getting 2nd school to wnit gave opportunity for a better job
jr payne offered new mexico, arizona, colorado
payne was a coach on the rise
ceal and rg signed off spending $40,000 to outside consulting group to recommend candidate
it was a waste of ad money
arizona and colorado offers were a mistake
why?
jr payne had been a head coach for 7 seasons when hired
had four losing seasons as head coach out of 7
southern utah - 2 winning, 3 losing seasons
santa clara - 1 winning, 1 losing seasons
more losing seasons than winning seasons - not good
2 postseason appearances out of 7 seasons - not good
she did beat stanford with small conf team which got ads attention
why was jr payne a poor fit for pac12 jobs?
jr payne had never shown ability to recruit or develop a team to pac12 levels
has coached at cu for three years
ten years as head coach
will finish with losing season this year
six losing season out of ten
only 4 winning seasons ten seasons as head coach
is a good coach for small conf team a mistake hire for pac12
wnit teams are 65-128 best teams
those teams can not compete in pac12
current rpi of pac12
stanford 3
oregon 5
ariz state 15
cal 28
utah 29
oregon state 41
ucla 42
usc 49
arizona 65
wash state 105
washington 120
colorado 139
so ceal and rg hired a coach good enough to get a team to an rpi of 65-128
good enough for the wnit
however an rpi of 65-128 might win maybe a handful of games in pac12
losing majority of conf games
so ceal and rg hired a coach that had shown no ability to recruit or compete at this level
why?
looking at conf rpi of pac12 members
two teams top-10
five teams top-30
nine teams good enough for ncaa women's tournament
five teams good enough to advance 2nd round of ncaa women's tournament
three teams good enough to advance to sweet-16
two teams good enough to be in final four
that's our conference
you don't hire a small conf coach with zero experience recruiting future international and wnba players
you need future international professional and wnba players to compete in pac12
pac12 number 1 women's basketball conference and its not even close
pac12 is not a conference conducive to on-the-job training
if a coach has zero experience recruiting top national players
what success could she have?
she's a good small conf coach but maybe in over her head in best conf around
pac12 is like Gleague for women's basketball
pac12 is ostensibly playing an ncaa tournament level team every conference game
how this simple math could be lost on national consulting firm charging CU $40,000?
wnit level rpi (65-128 best teams in country) good for 11th, 12th place finish in pac12
jr payne probably a mistake hire
pac12 coaching search needs experience as national level recruiter
needs a proven coach that can get a team to RPI under 50
combined record of pac12 teams with RPI over 50: 7-28
when ceal and rg hired a wnit level small conf coach
they hired a coach that could not compete in pac12 high level RPI conference
one way to think about whether jr payne was a mistake hire for Buffs
payne a solid coach
twice built a program up to competitive level/postseason
but only wnit, never ncaa tournament
why does that matter?
64 teams make ncaa women's championship tournament
automatic 32 conf bids
32 at-large bids
there are no play-in games like men's tournament
wnit tournament unlike post-season men's nit tournament is not owned by ncaa
actually run by triple crown, right here in colorado up in the fort
teams must have overall .500 record or better (incl conf tournament)
64 teams make wnit women's championship tournament
automatic 32 (best available conf team based on reg season conf record)
32 at-large bids
if best team from conf declines automatic bid conf loses that spot goes to at-large pool
home games within bracket awarded based on bid (flat $$ or % of gate guaranteed to triple crown)
what does this have to do with jr payne hire?
ostensibly the best 64 teams make ncaa women's tournament
ostensibly the best 65-128 teams play in wnit
ostensibly the best 129-144 teams play in wbi (16 team postseason tourney)
jr payne first head coaching job was southern utah
jr payne in her 5th season at southern utah took team to wnit (2nd round exit)
exiting in 2nd round puts south utah somewhere between 81st and 92nd best team in country
getting to wnit gave opportunity for a better job
jr payne took second head coaching job at santa clara
jr payne in her 2nd season at santa clara took team to wnit (1st round exit)
exiting in the 1st round puts santa clara somewhere between 97th and 128th best team in country
getting 2nd school to wnit gave opportunity for a better job
jr payne offered new mexico, arizona, colorado
payne was a coach on the rise
ceal and rg signed off spending $40,000 to outside consulting group to recommend candidate
it was a waste of ad money
arizona and colorado offers were a mistake
why?
jr payne had been a head coach for 7 seasons when hired
had four losing seasons as head coach out of 7
southern utah - 2 winning, 3 losing seasons
santa clara - 1 winning, 1 losing seasons
more losing seasons than winning seasons - not good
2 postseason appearances out of 7 seasons - not good
she did beat stanford with small conf team which got ads attention
why was jr payne a poor fit for pac12 jobs?
jr payne had never shown ability to recruit or develop a team to pac12 levels
has coached at cu for three years
ten years as head coach
will finish with losing season this year
six losing season out of ten
only 4 winning seasons ten seasons as head coach
is a good coach for small conf team a mistake hire for pac12
wnit teams are 65-128 best teams
those teams can not compete in pac12
current rpi of pac12
stanford 3
oregon 5
ariz state 15
cal 28
utah 29
oregon state 41
ucla 42
usc 49
arizona 65
wash state 105
washington 120
colorado 139
so ceal and rg hired a coach good enough to get a team to an rpi of 65-128
good enough for the wnit
however an rpi of 65-128 might win maybe a handful of games in pac12
losing majority of conf games
so ceal and rg hired a coach that had shown no ability to recruit or compete at this level
why?
looking at conf rpi of pac12 members
two teams top-10
five teams top-30
nine teams good enough for ncaa women's tournament
five teams good enough to advance 2nd round of ncaa women's tournament
three teams good enough to advance to sweet-16
two teams good enough to be in final four
that's our conference
you don't hire a small conf coach with zero experience recruiting future international and wnba players
you need future international professional and wnba players to compete in pac12
pac12 number 1 women's basketball conference and its not even close
pac12 is not a conference conducive to on-the-job training
if a coach has zero experience recruiting top national players
what success could she have?
she's a good small conf coach but maybe in over her head in best conf around
pac12 is like Gleague for women's basketball
pac12 is ostensibly playing an ncaa tournament level team every conference game
how this simple math could be lost on national consulting firm charging CU $40,000?
wnit level rpi (65-128 best teams in country) good for 11th, 12th place finish in pac12
jr payne probably a mistake hire
pac12 coaching search needs experience as national level recruiter
needs a proven coach that can get a team to RPI under 50
combined record of pac12 teams with RPI over 50: 7-28
when ceal and rg hired a wnit level small conf coach
they hired a coach that could not compete in pac12 high level RPI conference
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