KenPom Projections

[Goose]

Ken Pomeroy just posted his statistical projections for the year. For those that don't know, here's some background.

He has CU projected as the #118 team in the nation, which would be 10th in the PAC-12 (although USC is at #116). Gives us a 13-14 record. We lose 3 games in non-con (Wichita State, Georgia & @CSU) and go 7-11 in conference. Now he only projects games in which the opponents are known, so there are 2 PR Tipoff games that aren't on there. I would imagine we would be 1-1 in those games as we're ranked below both Maryland and Alabama (who are our second round matchups) and higher than a few other teams from the top bracket.

 

[btbuff]

We better not loose to CSU. Interestingly enough he has us loosing every away conference game. I doubt we do that.

 

[jgisland]

Looking at the projections I really think this is worst case scenario. He has us winning exactly ZERO games on the road and losing 3 home games to UW, Arizona and CAL, those are all logical losses. I just don't see us losing all 9 road conf games. Between the road Stanford, USC, Arizona St, Utah, Oregon and Oregon St games I think we can win at least 2 of those games if not more. Road losses to Arizona, CAL and UCLA seem likely, but UCLA isn't playing at Pauley Pavilion this year, so you don't really know how well they are going to play at "home" this year.

 

[btbuff]

Looking at the projections I really think this is worst case scenario. He has us winning exactly ZERO games on the road and losing 3 home games to UW, Arizona and CAL, those are all logical losses. I just don't see us losing all 9 road conf games. Between the road Stanford, USC, Arizona St, Utah, Oregon and Oregon St games I think we can win at least 2 of those games if not more. Road losses to Arizona, CAL and UCLA seem likely, but UCLA isn't playing at Pauley Pavilion this year, so you don't really know how well they are going to play at "home" this year.

He has us winning against Air Force, no wins in conference road games though.

Even if UCLA isn't strictly at home, it still means we are playing on the road.

 

[RumblinBuff]

I find it hard to believe that we drop both the Georgia and CSU games. I'm thinking 2-1 over that AF-GA-CSU stretch.

His conference projects are aligned with my baseline - six home wins minimum. We WILL lose one of those first 3 home conference games, with them falling over winter break, but I could see us making up for it with a win over a struggling Utah team in SLC. Anywhere from 6-12 to 9-9 is possible IMO. Nice to see he agrees with me on Oregon St.

The projections seem pretty down on the league as a whole, which is about where I'm at headed into the season. It's just not as strong as the old Big XII.

 

[Darth Snow]

I think that sounds about right actually. Chips have to fall our way for us to be more than 1 or 2 games better than that prediction.

 

[Buffnik]

I think a lot more of last season had to do with Boyle's coaching than our frontline talent.

We won a lot of games we shouldn't have. But this was a team that was also capable of losing the San Francisco, Harvard, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Iowa State games. Burks took the team on his back a few times, but there were games I watched where it wasn't Burks who carried us and we were beating teams that were simply better than us based on their talent (KSU 3 times, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas). Boyle finds ways to put his teams in a position to win basketball games.

 

[RumblinBuff]

Speaking of kenpom... Everyone/Anyone going to pay-up when he dives behind the paywall? I'm so addicted to his stuff I'll probably pony up the 20 bucks.

 

[tante]

I find it hard to believe that we drop both the Georgia and CSU games. I'm thinking 2-1 over that AF-GA-CSU stretch.

His conference projects are aligned with my baseline - six home wins minimum. We WILL lose one of those first 3 home conference games, with them falling over winter break, but I could see us making up for it with a win over a struggling Utah team in SLC. Anywhere from 6-12 to 9-9 is possible IMO. Nice to see he agrees with me on Oregon St.

The projections seem pretty down on the league as a whole, which is about where I'm at headed into the season. It's just not as strong as the old Big XII.

you think we are going to lose to Utah at home?

 

[jgisland]

Speaking of kenpom... Everyone/Anyone going to pay-up when he dives behind the paywall? I'm so addicted to his stuff I'll probably pony up the 20 bucks.

Yes, definitely going to drop the $20 on it. Also waiting for Basketball Prospectus' College Preview to come out. Ken wrote the CU section (where his Dre blog post stemmed from) interested to read that.

 

[RumblinBuff]

you think we are going to lose to Utah at home?

No, 1 of the 3, most likely UW. I just don't like the prospect of facing conference games without a student section. Utah will suck, so I'm confident in saying we'll beat them, but with a reduced home atmosphere, playing a team comfortable in altitude, you just never know...

 

[Tractor]

Last year we were able to close out a lot of games (including some maybe we had no business closing) due to some fantastic free throw shooting down the stretch. Where the heck is that going to come from this year? I think we'll lose a lot more close games because we don't have any lights out free throw shooters that can get themselves to the line.

 

[Goose]

Yes, definitely going to drop the $20 on it. Also waiting for Basketball Prospectus' College Preview to come out. Ken wrote the CU section (where his Dre blog post stemmed from) interested to read that.

When the hell is that coming out? Gassaway has been teasing it on twitter for about a month now.

 

[slider]

Sounds accurate to me. I think Buff fans will be disappointed and we'll miss out on the NIT. I wonder how this board will be during the season since it looks like nearly all Buff fans are firmly on the Boyle bandwagon

 

[jgisland]

When the hell is that coming out? Gassaway has been teasing it on twitter for about a month now.

Soon....as it has been for the last month. Sounds like (from twitter) that the east coast power outages may have delayed it a couple of days.

 

[Mick Ronson]

i seem to remember a team that couldn't stop ISU in the last week of the season more than most people...so, while i like Tad a lot...i'm not sure he's John Wooden just yet and can be counted on to take an inexperienced bunch and overachieve Norman Dale style as a total given. i think the OOC is uglier than KP has it, but conference maybe more in the 8 win area. i also think this team is bubble NIT....unless Brown simply has a stellar season from the go...and guys like Sharpe, Tomlinson, and Dufault step way up. FR are power conference ready in January etc. lot of "ifs".

 

[jgisland]

When the hell is that coming out? Gassaway has been teasing it on twitter for about a month now.

<br><br>Soon....as it has been for the last month.&nbsp; Sounds like (from twitter) that the east coast power outages may have delayed it a couple of days.&nbsp;

 

[jgisland]

Ran some of the numbers for last years AdjO (adjusted offense) and AdjD (adjusted defense) vs this years projections for the P12.

Things to note, negative offensive numbers mean a decline in offense, while positive defensive numbers mean an increase in opponent offense.

Team	AdjO 10/11	AdjO 11/12	AdjO Diff		AdjD 10/11	AdjD 11/12	AdjD Diff
Arizona 5	117.3	113.2	-4.1		96.4	96.8	0.4
Washington 7	117.8	111.3	-6.5		94.7	95.6	0.9
Colorado	117.3	107	-10.3		102.4	102.6	0.2
Washington St.	106.5	103.7	-2.8		94	96.2	2.2
California	109.3	113.2	3.9		98.9	96.8	-2.1
UCLA 7	107.2	108.4	1.2		93.2	95.3	2.1
Arizona St.	102.8	106.4	3.6		99.7	97	-2.7
Southern California 11	106.1	99.2	-6.9		92.1	94.9	2.8
Stanford	103.2	105.4	2.2		97.6	95.8	-1.8
Oregon	105.6	106.3	0.7		98.1	97.2	-0.9
Utah	100.9	101.2	0.3		99.3	98.9	-0.4
Oregon St.	100.7	102.7	2		100.9	98.9	-2

Obviously things don't look good for CU.

CAL isn't really a dark horse as they have been getting a lot of preseason publicity, but returning virtually everybody from last year they could be tough.

I also think Arizona could struggle (as they did last week against Seattle Pacific). Losing Williams, the most productive offensive player in the P10 last year and starting a couple freshman they could have some problems, especially early in the season.

 

[slider]

I think we'll have a couple bad losses and the board will meltdown ala the football forum

 

[Buffnik]

Do these numbers mean that the guys we lost didn't have a statistical impact on our defense?

 

[btbuff]

Do these numbers mean that the guys we lost didn't have a statistical impact on our defense?

It is an important point to make. Is our defense going to be improved or about the same?

While we loved Levi he wasn't the quickest guy on defense. The loss of Higgins on defense sucks though, he stuck with almost any position. Recruiting these long wing players should help.
Marcus and Austin were so often asked to play out of their positions we gave up a lot of easy points.

SHT should help upfront as well as moving Andre to a wing position to move around allowing him to come in for the block. But is Carlon Brown good defensively? What about Chen?

 

[torero]

It is an important point to make. Is our defense going to be improved or about the same?

While we loved Levi he wasn't the quickest guy on defense. The loss of Higgins on defense sucks though, he stuck with almost any position. Recruiting these long wing players should help.
Marcus and Austin were so often asked to play out of their positions we gave up a lot of easy points.

SHT should help upfront as well as moving Andre to a wing position to move around allowing him to come in for the block. But is Carlon Brown good defensively? What about Chen?

As talented as Alec was, there were large stretches where he was atrocious defensively. I have to believe Brown will be an upgrade on that end of the floor.

It will be tough to replace Corey's defense though, but one hope is that SHT can cover up defensive holes with a big body in the middle.

 

[btbuff]

As talented as Alec was, there were large stretches where he was atrocious defensively. I have to believe Brown will be an upgrade on that end of the floor.

It will be tough to replace Corey's defense though, but one hope is that SHT can cover up defensive holes with a big body in the middle.

Alec came through in crunch time though. He defense on Pullen, picking his pocket, and Rodney McGruder, laying on him while he made that ridiculous three pointer that was waved off.

NVM, it just appears he played great D against KSU.

 

[Buffnik]

Brown, Chen and Tunks are all drawing praise for their defense. To a lesser extent, so are Adams and Dinwiddie. Dre and Mills have each put on about 20lbs of good weight, so they should be able to hold up better.

I think we'll see major improvement on defense this season. That's where I'm hanging my hat with predicting a winning record (along with some improvement to rebounding and better PG play). If the defense doesn't gel, we will suck this year.

 

[RumblinBuff]

Brown, Chen and Tunks are all drawing praise for their defense. To a lesser extent, so are Adams and Dinwiddie. Dre and Mills have each put on about 20lbs of good weight, so they should be able to hold up better.

I think we'll see major improvement on defense this season. That's where I'm hanging my hat with predicting a winning record (along with some improvement to rebounding and better PG play). If the defense doesn't gel, we will suck this year.

Absolutely, while the offense will regress to the mean, we should see a significant uptick in defense and continue to see improvement in rebounding. This is a result of both coaching emphasis and roster alignment.

 

[sackman]

I think we're giving the Pac 12 too much credit. The Big 12 was (and remains) a much better basketball conference from top to bottom, IMO. If we can finish 5th in the Big 12, we can finish 5th in the Pac 12, even after graduating Alec and Cory.

 

[jgisland]

No, 1 of the 3, most likely UW. I just don't like the prospect of facing conference games without a student section. Utah will suck, so I'm confident in saying we'll beat them, but with a reduced home atmosphere, playing a team comfortable in altitude, you just never know...

After reading this is made me think are the Buffs really affected by the students not being there and reduced attendance over winter break?

I ran the numbers for the average decrease in crowd attendance and how many points pg we scored over winter break for the last 5 years and how we fared.

	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	5 Year AVG
Avg Decrease in Attd	2684	1198	1333	2181	130	1505.2
More Pts Scored	8.55	3.44	3.77	8.62	5.53	5.982
Record Over Winter Break	5 0	4 0	4 0	2 2	1 3	16 5
Conf Teams Played	missouri	baylor

We haven't lost a home game over winter break in 3 years and have gone 16-5 over the last 5. We do have some history over the last 2 years playing a conf game over winter break and have won both of those. We score more points, but this is largely due to the decrease in talent we play before conf play begins.

All that being said, I like our chances against a horrible Utah team over winter break this year.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Sounds accurate to me. I think Buff fans will be disappointed and we'll miss out on the NIT. I wonder how this board will be during the season since it looks like nearly all Buff fans are firmly on the Boyle bandwagon

I'd be disappointed with 13-14 (7-11). I expect a bumpy season, especially in the OOC, but I don't think it can be reiterated enough that the Pac12 just isn't a very good basketball conference right now. The fact that teams like Cal (a team CU demolished in the NIT last year) and Oregon have been placed by some as high as #2 in the conference sums it up. Utah and Oregon State are horrendous, far worse than anything you'd see at the bottom of the BigXII in recent years. CU should be able to manage at least a 9-9 record in league play, there's a whole lot of mediocre in this league with some terrible sprinkled on top. The biggest thing is that there are so many more winnable road opportunities for the Buffs

 

[Junction]

We better not loose to CSU. Interestingly enough he has us loosing every away conference game. I doubt we do that.

Maybe he has them confused with the football team?? :lol:

Agree re: CSU. Should not lose to them, even in their barn. But that series has tended to go that way at times...

 

[prime teets]

Maybe he has them confused with the football team?? :lol:

Agree re: CSU. Should not lose to them, even in their barn. But that series has tended to go that way at times...

we need to fill half that place up. i hate to use this reference, but we need to go all nebraska on them and massively overpay for tickets.