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KenPom Projections

jcatcher

jcatcher

Club Member
Are out for the new season. He has us at 19-12, 10-8 in conference. That's a tie for fourth with Cal and U-Dub behind AZ, UCLA, and Stanford in that order. He projects a substantially better offense (108.1 AdjO vs. 103.2 last year) and a substantially worse D (95.2 AdjD vs. 90.9.) Non-conference losses to Baylor, Kansas, and Okie Lite.

It would suck if we went 0-3 vs. the Big XII.

I think this is behind the pay wall, but you should pony up the $20 for the year anyway, it's worth it.

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Colorado
 
Sounds about right - Dan Hanner has CU going 11-7 in conference with an AdjO of 112.1 and AdjD of 93.7. Nropp has CU at 109 AdjO and 91 AdjD. Everybody's projections are based off of points per possession; Baylor, Kansas and Ok St are all going to be favored over CU in any projection system that uses PPP.

What I do find very interesting is KenPom's projected tempo - 65.9 (218th) vs 65 (216th) last year. So KenPom is projecting a fairly large uptick in average pace for all of college hoops - so by increasing tempo by nearly a possession a game CU isn't gaining anywhere on the field.
 
It would be a bummer to only hit 19 in the regular season, but not shocking. There's a good chance it hits home quite quickly how tough this schedule is and how we're likely going to be taking some losses.

I'm not buying Stanford hype. I've refused it from day 1 under Dawkins and that's not going to change. They'll be their same inconsistent selves.
 
hope more people see these projections. Both the out of conference and in conference slate are harder than anything we've seen in a long long time at CU. I'm no basketball history buff, but I don't think the B12 was ever all that deep a conference like the pac 12 is this year.
 
Darth Snow said:
hope more people see these projections. Both the out of conference and in conference slate are harder than anything we've seen in a long long time at CU. I'm no basketball history buff, but I don't think the B12 was ever all that deep a conference like the pac 12 is this year.
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Exactly - Not only that, but CU came into the Pac-12 when the conference was down more than it had ever been. During CU's 2 years in the conference there was only 1 conference game where 2 ranked teams met (last year in the Pac-12 tourney Oregon vs Arizona). The conference was due to rebound, CU could be a much better team than before but end up with a much worse conference record than in the previous two years.
 
Darth Snow said:
hope more people see these projections. Both the out of conference and in conference slate are harder than anything we've seen in a long long time at CU. I'm no basketball history buff, but I don't think the B12 was ever all that deep a conference like the pac 12 is this year.
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We're in the mid-stages of Pac basketball becoming the same level as Pac football. There's still some coaching turnover that needs to and will happen for the Pac to go full force, but it's on the horizon. The same processes are underway. 10 and 11 win conference win seasons are about to get a LOT more difficult to obtain.
 
21-10 (11-7) is my early pick.

In addition to the obvious OOC games plus Harvard, there are a handful of sleeper teams like Arkansas State and Elon that can beat us on the right night. We face some OOC opposition that has quality size, along with some that are capable of getting a hot hand from the bonusphere and giving us major headaches. And no matter what anyone says, the 3 MWC games will NOT be easy. That trip to CSU being right before KU is not a good situation. A crucial home game against Oregon on Jan 5th without a full-force crowd is not a good situation. Ending the regular season with 3 straight roadies at Utah, Stanford and Cal is not a good situation. I expect to be more poised on the road, but the Pac is also much improved outside of Wazzu. Oregon State and Utah should be wins, but last year showed that's far from a given with our meltdown at Utah and Tad managing to get out-coached by Craig Robinson in Boulder. The good news is the record doesn't have to be extremely sexy to get a Big Dance ticket and a decent seed. Just get our share of top 100 wins (of which we'll have a gazillion opportunities) and it'll take care of itself.

Baylor isn't traditionally the greatest at starting seasons, I'm glad we get them early but our frontcourt better be ready. I think I'm more worried about Cory Jefferson than I am 7'1 Isaiah Austin. Isaiah Austin sucks on D, although he obviously poses issues for us on offense. Jefferson is that prototypical Baylor athlete at 6'9 with length and great athleticism. The main reason I'm happy to get them early is because their backcourt is going to take some time. They have a lot of pieces they need to figure out. Certainly solid potential with the Drew transfer brigade , but I'd rather get them in early November than late December. And of course, we simply won't win if Heslip goes insane. He has to be limited. We did a great job last season and we know we can beat these guys. Despite being in Dallas, it won't be a hostile gym. It'll be more of a half-empty conference tournament type feel.

I'm not wildly intimidated by Oklahoma State either, despite Smart and the lofty preseason rankings. I think we go 1-1 against Baylor/Okie Lite, but we've got our chance against both. I'm personally not buying their ceiling being quite as high as many are. Travis Ford teams often get disorganized with poor spacing and not a clear coherent offense. They need a bonusphere sharpshooter to reach their goals, and I'm not convinced they have that. Certainly a very talented team that can give us fits, but I can see a fired up Buffs squad in front of a partisan Vegas crowd rising to the occasion. There's no need for this CU team to be intimidated by any team this year. We'll lose our share, including some that we shouldn't, but we're going to have some big wins as well.
 
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Seems like they put a lot of weight in losing Roberson. I'm banking on us being deeper across the board to counter his loss.
 
DBT said:
Seems like they put a lot of weight in losing Roberson. I'm banking on us being deeper across the board to counter his loss.
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Reading some of the preseason rags, there's generally an immense ignorance of what Wes Gordon can bring to the table for us. Because he redshirted, it's like he got lost in the mix amongst those who don't heavily focus on the Pac. They tend to just look at true incoming freshmen, or else presume a redshirt (which isn't the norm in college hoops) isn't anything special.
 
DBT said:
Still no television shown for Baylor game.
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It's on Fox Sports Net (Southwest).

All games in this classic are on FSN. Alabama/Oklahoma, SMU/TCU and Colorado/Baylor.

Baylor website has it listed, as usual our website is just behind the curve.

Too bad the biggest game of the day (ours) is on Fox Sports, but ESPN is too busy hyping up Georgetown/Oregon from Seoul. They play 3 hours before we do, so it's not like they couldn't have put both on. I get the interest in the game being played in South Korea, but while Georgetown carries that tradition with them, this is going to be a down year by their standards. Likely not a top 25 caliber team this year.
 
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I am good with ROOT....at least it will be on TV down here in Southern Colorado unlike anything with the Pac 12 Network
 
CVilleBuff said:
I'm not buying Stanford hype. I've refused it from day 1 under Dawkins and that's not going to change. They'll be their same inconsistent selves.
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This. They burned me BAD the last two years. This year, I don't even think I have them dancing. Which is insane considering they're probably the third most talented team in the conference (behind Arizona and Oregon).

CVilleBuff said:
In addition to the obvious OOC games plus Harvard, there are a handful of sleeper teams like Arkansas State and Elon that can beat us on the right night. We face some OOC opposition that has quality size, along with some that are capable of getting a hot hand from the bonusphere and giving us major headaches. And no matter what anyone says, the 3 MWC games will NOT be easy.
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Again, agreed. I think people are forgetting that Texas Southern took us to OT last year and probably should have won that game. Non-conference trap games are called traps for a reason. We're going to probably get snared by one. I'm expecting 3-4 losses in non-con honestly.

CVilleBuff said:
Too bad the biggest game of the day (ours) is on Fox Sports, but ESPN is too busy hyping up Georgetown/Oregon from Seoul. They play 3 hours before we do, so it's not like they couldn't have put both on. I get the interest in the game being played in South Korea, but while Georgetown carries that tradition with them, this is going to be a down year by their standards. Likely not a top 25 caliber team this year.
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I'm surprised you're down on Georgetown. Losing Porter obviously hurts, but they have a pretty damn good backcourt and their front court is solid. If Josh Smith plays even decently (and Georgetown's style should suit him a lot better than UCLA's), they could be a dangerous team. Not final four/elite eight dangerous or anything, but I like the makeup of that team.
 
Goose said:
This. They burned me BAD the last two years. This year, I don't even think I have them dancing. Which is insane considering they're probably the third most talented team in the conference (behind Arizona and Oregon).



Again, agreed. I think people are forgetting that Texas Southern took us to OT last year and probably should have won that game. Non-conference trap games are called traps for a reason. We're going to probably get snared by one. I'm expecting 3-4 losses in non-con honestly.



I'm surprised you're down on Georgetown. Losing Porter obviously hurts, but they have a pretty damn good backcourt and their front court is solid. If Josh Smith plays even decently (and Georgetown's style should suit him a lot better than UCLA's), they could be a dangerous team. Not final four/elite eight dangerous or anything, but I like the makeup of that team.
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I expect Georgetown to be dancing, just seeing them as top 35ish as opposed to top 15.

Getting close! This Buff will be doing some serious research scouting opposition while on his two flights today!
 
I's also add UCSB to the potential upset list. They've got a potential Big West POY in 6'7 Pf Alan Williams plus they've got a couple of guys who can shot the 3 (especially kyle boswell). If Scott/Gordon can handle Williams and not require help our guards can stick with Boswell and hopefully limit his looks.
 
jgisland said:
I's also add UCSB to the potential upset list. They've got a potential Big West POY in 6'7 Pf Alan Williams plus they've got a couple of guys who can shot the 3 (especially kyle boswell). If Scott/Gordon can handle Williams and not require help our guards can stick with Boswell and hopefully limit his looks.
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Yep they're one to watch but Arky State worries me most of the deep sleeper games
 
Will we lose games we shouldn't this year? Yup, every team does. Will we win games we shouldn't this year? Absolutely. We're going to take down Okie State or Kansas.
 
BuffTE41 said:
Will we lose games we shouldn't this year? Yup, every team does. Will we win games we shouldn't this year? Absolutely. We're going to take down Okie State or Kansas.
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I really hope we beat Kansas. We are due to beat them considering they have won something like 40/41 games against us, and our only win was a 1 point home victory back in 2003.
 
Man, you guys are really harshing my pre-season kool-aid. But I agree the OOC could probably hold some letdowns given our squad's youth. I was hoping, however, to come in a little better in league then Ken-Pom suggests. Am I correct in remembering that Ken-Pom has had us pegged pretty square the last two years?

I just don't know about us taking down KU. I know Mayor getting hurt pretty much squelched any shot we had last year but I was pretty surprised at how absolutely flustered we were with KU jumping the high pick-n-roll. Seemed like we spent 3/4 of the shot clock running our O above the 28-foot line. On the flip side, we're KU's first true road game. Here's hoping the keg can make up for our youth.
 
PuebloBuff said:
Man, you guys are really harshing my pre-season kool-aid. But I agree the OOC could probably hold some letdowns given our squad's youth. I was hoping, however, to come in a little better in league then Ken-Pom suggests. Am I correct in remembering that Ken-Pom has had us pegged pretty square the last two years?
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Correct. It's usually about 5-10 slots low.
 
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