I think the numbers make a compelling argument.
My main motivation was to get people to take notice, take football more seriously, and stop insulting us with a casual assumption that Embree would be back for 2013.
We needed to make it a public debate. You can't be a program at this level and not have pressure turned up when a season has been historically bad.
Now, this could result in a strong move that includes donors stepping up to pay the termination fees and back up a truck of money to get a powerhouse head coach in here.
But short of that, we will also have been successful if this shortens Embree's rope, forces major staff changes, increases institutional support for the athletics department, improves some organizational issues, and drives the need for facilities improvement.
Again, the reason I believe we need a new football coach is:
1. The 2012 class (including some grayshirts counted in 2013) form an acceptable foundation CU football can win with.
2. The 2013 class is not building on that momentum. In fact, it's backsliding due to the performance on the field.
3. The 2014 class will have trouble getting off the ground coming off this season without a major injection of excitement.
4. Hiring a new HC now could very well improve the 2013 class and set up a good 2014 class.
5. Following this model, CU would have reasonable talent and depth to start winning most of its games and being competitive every week.
6. From that next foundation level, there is an opportunity to become a special program again -- if the facilities project is completed by then (2014/2015 time frame).
I wish I could see this happening with Embree but I just don't see how it adds up.
I think the best case with retaining Embree is looking at:
1. A low-rated class in 2013 that fits the system and has some solid Pac-12 starters and hopefully a couple surprise gems.
2. A 2014 season with Dillon being a very special RS-Frosh QB who leads us to a 6 or 7 win season to put CU in a bowl game (entire OL returns, WR gets upgrades, RBs are a year more experienced, DTs are a year better, DEs get some new talent, DBs are a year more experienced, TE should be able to replace Kasa with the young talent developing, Orms/Smith play like seniors at S and Mosley develops).
3. That modestly successful 2014 season gives a recruiting bump similar to the Hawkins Independence Bowl year and CU closes a lot of talent during December bowl practices for a Top 25 class.
4. Facilities land, Dillon and others are even better in 2014, and this thing gets rolling.
The problem I'm having is that there is nothing on Embree's resume or in his current job performance that makes me trust that if we stick with him he has what it takes. Compounding this is that we know that we will have to replace coordinators (possibly all 3) in order to put the players in a good position to win football games and this is difficult to do if Embree is perceived as a coach on the hot seat. Firing him is actually the lower-risk option because of the predictable 2013 & 2014 recruiting bumps.
I guess we'll see how it plays out. And we'll keep fighting until a decision is made.