Larry Scott op-ed "The Next 100 Years"

[Buffnik]

"The next 100 years: Staying on the forefront of college athletics"

Published today in the Daily Californian

[snip]
In addition to making substantive reforms for student-athletes, the Pac-12 is making technological strides. As the conference of the leading West Coast universities, we are uniquely positioned to find ways to excite fans of the future with new innovations. The future will see an exponential increase in the extent to which fans use technology to interact and engage with events, and we will be early adopters.

Every day we hear about new innovations on our campuses and look for ways to incorporate them into our efforts, including within Pac-12 Networks, the integrated TV and media company we own as a conference. The media industry is rapidly changing, and controlling our own network allows us to be flexible, to adapt and to best position our conference for the future.

Another way the Pac-12 is bringing college athletics into the next century is by pushing beyond our traditional geographic boundaries. It is impossible to look ahead to the next 100 years without imagining that college athletics will reflect the increasingly globalized world in which we live.
[snip]

Read the whole enchilada here: http://www.dailycal.org/2015/12/21/next-100-years-staying-forefront-collegiate-athletics/

 

[DBT]

"The next 100 years: Staying on the forefront of college athletics"

Published today in the Daily Californian

[snip]
In addition to making substantive reforms for student-athletes, the Pac-12 is making technological strides. As the conference of the leading West Coast universities, we are uniquely positioned to find ways to excite fans of the future with new innovations. The future will see an exponential increase in the extent to which fans use technology to interact and engage with events, and we will be early adopters.

Every day we hear about new innovations on our campuses and look for ways to incorporate them into our efforts, including within Pac-12 Networks, the integrated TV and media company we own as a conference. The media industry is rapidly changing, and controlling our own network allows us to be flexible, to adapt and to best position our conference for the future.

Another way the Pac-12 is bringing college athletics into the next century is by pushing beyond our traditional geographic boundaries. It is impossible to look ahead to the next 100 years without imagining that college athletics will reflect the increasingly globalized world in which we live.
[snip]

Read the whole enchilada here: http://www.dailycal.org/2015/12/21/next-100-years-staying-forefront-collegiate-athletics/

I'm 61. I don't give a **** about the next 100 years.

 

[dply]

I'm 61. I don't give a **** about the next 100 years.

Isn't that the Baby Boomer's motto?

 

[Darth Snow]

Isn't that the Baby Boomer's motto?

 

[BlackNGold]

I am glad he is forward thinking but I hope he does not forget today's challenges.

 

[SBG]

People on Mars will get the pac12n before people on the east coast or on directtv. I'm expecting one CUs alums to help colonize it.

 

[The Ogre]

People on Mars will get the pac12n before people on the east coast or on directtv. I'm expecting one CUs alums to help colonize it.

Why it's so difficult to watch the Buffs out here is absurd.

 

[Gary Indiana]

Why it's so difficult to watch the Buffs out here is absurd.

It's not. I haven't missed a football or Bball game all season.

 

[onealcd]

It's not. I haven't missed a football or Bball game all season.

I guarantee you have.

 

[dply]

Mebbe he is in Vegas.

 

[Gary Indiana]

I guarantee you have.

My mistake. The play-by-play in the game thread was so riveting that it felt like I was watching it.

 

[Creebuzz]

While it's unfortunate that the Pac 12 network is not carried more universally, I think Larry Scott is correct in retaining the ownership of the network ("The media industry is rapidly changing, and controlling our own network allows us to be flexible, to adapt and to best position our conference for the future.")

Presently, sports programming is in a huge bubble that will likely deflate over the next few years. ESPN is already suffering a loss of subscribers as cable implodes. Subscribers have dropped from roughly 107 million to 100 million. That may not seem like a lot, but ESPN gets over $6 per month in subscriber fees from every cable company in the US. That's $504 million annually they just lost on the 7 million subscriber loss, thus the huge layoffs and loss of talent (I.e. Bill Simmons). Disney is telling ESPN to cut costs.

The numbers get scary for ESPN when you consider that of those 100 million subscribers, only 25% actually watch the network. That's a high percentage of viewers relative to Lifetime network, but it still means 75 million subscribers are paying $6 per month for a product they don't want. Conversely, I pay $0.33 per month in carriage fees for Lifetime Network that I don't watch, but my wife does. Notice how much higher ESPN charges in subscriber fees? The next highest network subscriber fee is TNT at a $1.50. Cord cutting is enemy #1 for ESPN. (Note that sling tv now offers ESPN as an a la carte option for cord cutters).

So, where is TV going? It's a la carte in the very near future. You can pick up networks with over the air HDTV signal, HBO and showtime offer standalone service now, as do most other networks. The cable companies will soon have to adapt to a la carte pricing soon. This is a disaster for the sports fan. So, going back to the 100 million ESPN subscribers of which only 25% are actual network viewers, that means roughly 75 million subscribers are paying $6 a month for a network they don't want. When everything moves to a la cart, ESPN will then lose 3/4 of its revenue while being locked into long term payouts on NFL, college football, and MLB contracts. The financial position of ESPN could become decidedly negative very quickly. I keep seeing people complain that the newer TV deals for the SEC, BIG will be much bigger than the PAC. Not sure that will be true given the evolving economics.

And this is where Conference ownership of the PAC 12 network makes sense. I think you'll see in the next 4 years that the PAC 12 network will offer standalone service. It will be a niche product for certain, but if you get 1.5 million subscribers paying $10 per month with advertising sales, then you could probably replicate the $25 million payout per school.

In any case, a paradigm shift is underway and in my opinion Larry Scott has the PAC 12 well positioned, although the popularity of the product among alumni and western residents is still a major competitive disadvantage versus the SEC.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Presently, sports programming is in a huge bubble that will likely deflate over the next few years. ESPN is already suffering a loss of subscribers as cable implodes. Subscribers have dropped from roughly 107 million to 100 million. That may not seem like a lot, but ESPN gets over $6 per month in subscriber fees from every cable company in the US. That's $504 million annually they just lost on the 7 million subscriber loss, thus the huge layoffs and loss of talent (I.e. Bill Simmons). Disney is telling ESPN to cut costs.

The numbers get scary for ESPN when you consider that of those 100 million subscribers, only 25% actually watch the network. That's a high percentage of viewers relative to Lifetime network, but it still means 75 million subscribers are paying $6 per month for a product they don't want. Conversely, I pay $0.33 per month in carriage fees for Lifetime Network that I don't watch, but my wife does. Notice how much higher ESPN charges in subscriber fees? The next highest network subscriber fee is TNT at a $1.50. Cord cutting is enemy #1 for ESPN. (Note that sling tv now offers ESPN as an a la carte option for cord cutters).

This guys gets it. 44% of Disney's revenue or profits (click the link) came from TV rights. Looking at your math thats a lot of scratch still to go ESPN and they can't cut their sports contracts. It's either keep paying or file BK. My guess is that most of the TV will go back to over the air.

Frankly, The golden age for the P12Network to get silly money is probably over with. Had they created this thing first or when the B10 did they might have gotten in. In the end these networks might get kicked back to the other schools or the schools will be forced to buy back the rights. Or they will just get ignored until the contract is up. So in some sense we might be ahead of them. Truthfully, if it goes back to over the air, they should probably all merge into the power 5 network and charge like $199 or $299 like Sunday Ticket.

 

[Buffs35]

I think the P12 network might be positioned for the long-run, might be, but anyone that thinks cable/satellite is going away in the next few decades is kidding themselves. By the time cord cutting exceeds satellite/cable distribution, the other networks will follow suit - it's the natural progression. The Pac 12 is losing the arms race, and it is because they are a second-tier conference when it comes to revenue.

LS missed the boat and overplayed his hand, now he is falling back on this notion that he was somehow clairvoyant and knew a la carte streaming was the way of the future. By the time it happens, the damage will already be done. The AT&T deal should have been rejected, but the Pac 12 needs distribution. No two bones about it.

 

[Sykobuff]

Direct tv larry, you're losing money, give it a try.

 

[DBT]

Regardless, the Pac will still earn less revenue than the SEC and Big 10 even if it goes a la carte. Meanwhile, we get much less exposure by not being on DirecTV. It'd be better, in the long run, to start building exposure now so if and when a la carte happens, we have a larger base. The revenue the Pac and CU is losing out on will never be made up. We are slipping further behind every day we aren't in more homes. And, yeah, we'd probably have to renegotiate with our current carriers. But even if it's a push, financially, you are building a bigger base for the coming apocalypse. If that's what it will be.

 

[MiamiBuffs]

I think the P12 network might be positioned for the long-run, might be, but anyone that thinks cable/satellite is going away in the next few decades is kidding themselves. By the time cord cutting exceeds satellite/cable distribution, the other networks will follow suit - it's the natural progression. The Pac 12 is losing the arms race, and it is because they are a second-tier conference when it comes to revenue.

I agree. What they will do eventually is cut back their basic packages to something that matches what can be streamed. It will become a la carte. My dad spent two hours on the phone with Comcast India trying to set up the same service call. Millennials will not put up with that ****. If they can't buy it or order it online they will find someone who they can get it from that way.

LS missed the boat and overplayed his hand, now he is falling back on this notion that he was somehow clairvoyant and knew a la carte streaming was the way of the future. By the time it happens, the damage will already be done. The AT&T deal should have been rejected, but the Pac 12 needs distribution. No two bones about it.

LS was never fairly negotiated with. DTV was not willing to put the P12N in the same tier that the SEC and B10 Networks were in. Thats where not having a bully (Fox and ESPN) on your side hurt him. If he had accepted the deal that DTV was offering he'd have had very little penetration (less revenue) as an add on only and he'd have had to go back redo the better deals he had with Dish and Comcast (less revenue).

 

[MiamiBuffs]

Regardless, the Pac will still earn less revenue than the SEC and Big 10 even if it goes a la carte. Meanwhile, we get much less exposure by not being on DirecTV. It'd be better, in the long run, to start building exposure now so if and when a la carte happens, we have a larger base. The revenue the Pac and CU is losing out on will never be made up. We are slipping further behind every day we aren't in more homes. And, yeah, we'd probably have to renegotiate with our current carriers. But even if it's a push, financially, you are building a bigger base for the coming apocalypse. If that's what it will be.

This is true (bolded). The problem is that DirecTV doesn't need the P12N because ESPN and Fox already own first and second options so most all of the good games are already on TV at those networks and on DirecTV. All the P12N does is broadcast the scrub games no one wants to watch. What really needs to happen is both Oregon and USC need to get back to their greatness because that adds value to the P12 brand. If that happened and Larry Scott hid ALL games on the P12N that might move more people to switch as it becomes a pure PPV model. However, boxing, for example, essentially died when they went PPV as they traded money up front with PPV in exchange for losing a couple generations of new fans with such narrow TV rights. Now kids watch UFC and MMA instead. So I dont think you'll ever see that. What likely will happen, I think, is Scott will get us into that streaming Dish bundle or hell get us on to Apple TV. The barrier preventing that is probably the current contracts with Comcast, Dish, and or ATT. Remember we still own our content. P12N is just one means of delivery.

The people who previously owned DirecTV sold it to ATT for a good reason. Disney's stock is declining on negative analysis over ESPN. There are a lot of people that dont have DTV and look at $1300-1500 a year as a waste of money. I am among them but they already hooked me. I have a feeling if I moved I would cancel DTV and try something else before coming back to them if all else failed.