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Lunardi's Latest (10:25pm) - Washington 1st Out & P12 gets 2 bids

Buffnik

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
Joe Lunardi's Bracketology update

March, 11, 2012
MAR 11
12:25
AM ET​

By ESPN.com staff

Here are Joe Lunardi's latest projections through Saturday. Check back Sunday morning for Joe's updated bracket.

TOP SEED ORDER

Kentucky
Syracuse
North Carolina
Kansas

Next in line (in order): Michigan State, Ohio State, Missouri, Duke

LAST FOUR IN

South Florida
North Carolina State
Seton Hall
Mississippi State

FIRST FOUR OUT

Washington
Drexel
Iona
Miami (Fla.)

NEXT TWO OUT

Ole Miss
Arizona

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Colorado (Pac-12)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lamar (Southland)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Long Beach State (Big West)
Louisville (Big East)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Memphis (Conference USA)
Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)
Missouri (Big 12)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
New Mexico (Mountain West)
Norfolk State (MEAC)
Ohio (MAC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
Vermont (America East)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/52862/joe-lunardis-bracketology-update-6
 
Buffnik said:
Joe Lunardi's Bracketology update

March, 11, 2012
MAR 11
12:25
AM ET​

By ESPN.com staff

Here are Joe Lunardi's latest projections through Saturday. Check back Sunday morning for Joe's updated bracket.

TOP SEED ORDER

Kentucky
Syracuse
North Carolina
Kansas

Next in line (in order): Michigan State, Ohio State, Missouri, Duke

LAST FOUR IN

South Florida
North Carolina State
Seton Hall
Mississippi State

FIRST FOUR OUT

Washington
Drexel
Iona
Miami (Fla.)

NEXT TWO OUT

Ole Miss
Arizona

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
Big 12 (6)
ACC (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
West Coast (3)
Conference USA (2)
Missouri Valley (2)
Pac-12 (2)

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
Colorado (Pac-12)
Creighton (Missouri Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Detroit (Horizon)
Harvard (Ivy)
Lamar (Southland)
Lehigh (Patriot)
LIU Brooklyn (Northeast)
Long Beach State (Big West)
Louisville (Big East)
Loyola-Md. (MAAC)
Memphis (Conference USA)
Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)
Missouri (Big 12)
Montana (Big Sky)
Murray State (OVC)
New Mexico (Mountain West)
Norfolk State (MEAC)
Ohio (MAC)
Saint Mary's (West Coast)
South Dakota State (Summit)
UNC Asheville (Big South)
Vermont (America East)
VCU (Colonial)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/52862/joe-lunardis-bracketology-update-6
Click to expand...

fify :woot: :gobuffs:

EDIT: Nik beat me to it.... :lol:
 
Buffnik said:
Latest Real Time RPI: http://realtimerpi.com/bin/rtr/rtrank?type=rpi&cate=overall&gender=1

Miss State is #74
Seton Hall is #66

Should they get in over #70 Washington, who won a regular season conference title?

I really think UDub has earned the at-large play-in game.

P.S. CU jumped up to #60 tonight.
Click to expand...

And I know they don't take into account the "last X amount of games" anymore, but Mississippi State lost 5 in a row and 6 of 8 down the stretch, including to Georgia twice. They have no business getting in over Washington, IMO.

Seton Hall went on a 6 game losing streak in January, and closed losing 3/4, including losses to Rutgers and DePaul with their lone win coming over Providence.

Not a doubt in my mind that Washington deserves to be in over Miss St and Seton Hall. The Pac-12 hate has gone overboard this year. Going 14-4 in Pac-12 play isn't as easy as some obviously think it is.

Washington had their chances to cement their bid and failed to do so, but there are some ****** teams far less deserving that might get bids over the Huskies.
 
CVilleBuff said:
And I know they don't take into account the "last X amount of games" anymore, but Mississippi State lost 5 in a row and 6 of 8 down the stretch, including to Georgia twice. They have no business getting in over Washington, IMO.

Seton Hall went on a 6 game losing streak in January, and closed losing 3/4, including losses to Rutgers and DePaul with their lone win coming over Providence.

Not a doubt in my mind that Washington deserves to be in over Miss St and Seton Hall. The Pac-12 hate has gone overboard this year. Going 14-4 in Pac-12 play isn't as easy as some obviously think it is.

Washington had their chances to cement their bid and failed to do so, but there are some ****** teams far less deserving that might get bids over the Huskies.
Click to expand...

Bolded. And it's going to manifest itself with the tourney champs having a 12/13 seed and the regular season champs in the NIT. And it sucks.
 
Goose said:
Bolded. And it's going to manifest itself with the tourney champs having a 12/13 seed and the regular season champs in the NIT. And it sucks.
Click to expand...

Hope you're wrong, but afraid you're right. However, I'll take being a 12 seed any day over being a 9 seed. 11 would be ideal, but unfortunately the overboard Pac-12 hate may prevent that. And yes, a 23 win Pac-12 Champion deserves at least an 11 seed.
 
I might be mistaken (although I doubt it :smile2:) ... but doesn't the RPI not allow for improvement of teams later in the season when they are only playing in conference, and penalizes them for early season losses against OOC teams that may be better or worse than when they were originally scheduled? In other words, how does a team (or conference) recover from an early season mediocre performance against OOC opponents when all they do is play other confernce opponents with the same problem?

Does this make sense? :huh:
 
L Buff said:
In other words, how does a team (or conference) recover from an early season mediocre performance against OOC opponents when all they do is play other confernce opponents with the same problem?

Does this make sense? :huh:
Click to expand...

Under the current setup it is impossible...

I would like to see conference play start Dec. 1st with OOC games sprinkled in throughout the year as this would be a much better representation of the conference strength. Basing it just on how teams play in November and December seems a little backward, but that's the system we have right now...

Washington traveled east to play Duke and Marquette in December, lost the games by a combined 8 points. Those losses are now coming back to haunt them with the whole "no highly ranked RPI wins" argument... If OOC losses to top teams hurt so much then I think we'll see fewer marquee matchups, or at least not away from home. I don't know that any other conference traveled as much as the Pac did this year to schedule primetime games vs other conferences...
 
The Pac:12's big problem this year is every team had some bad OOC losses and nobody really had a spectacular win. Let look at the top 6 teams:


Washington: they lost to St Louis, Duke, Marquette, Nevada and South Dakota State. They really need to win at least 2 or 3 of those game if they wanted the have a nice resume and boost the perception of the PAC.


California: they lost to Mizzou, San Diego State, and UNLV. They did beat Weber St, but they are all the way at 70 in RPI.


Oregon: lost to Vandy, BYU and Virginia


Arizona: lost to Mississippi St, San Diego State, Florida and Gonzaga. They completely whiffed on their big matchups.


Colorado: lost to Wichita State, CSU and Wyoming and also the bad loss to Maryland


This were the top 5 teams in the conference and while they looked like they all improved at the end of the season collectively they all had terrible starts to the season in big games.
 
Also, you have to wonder if it is a little tougher for the West Coast schools to schedule those RPI friendly OOC match ups, particularly for the Pac 12 whose schools are mostly going to be looking for home and homes. While the rise of the MWC as a b-ball conference helps, there simply aren't near as many good scheduling options compared to back East, and fewer schools are willing to come all the way across the country when they can set up a good match up that their fans can go to by driving 3 or 4 hours.
 
btbuff said:
ESPN bracket predictions. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Not liking the matchup with Wisconsin.


CSU matched up with Wichita St. I will have no problem rooting against CSU normally, but with Shocker Hoops showing up on allbuffs to congratulate us and keep in touch this will be a slam.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Click to expand...

Not looking for any in depth research here, but what do you think Lunardi's accuracy rate really is?
 
Lunardi is very good at predicting the field, but the individual matchups are a crapshoot.

As a Wisconsin Alum, I follow them closely, and for a 4-13 matchup, they may not be a bad draw for CU. They are nothing like a Stanford, who CU couldn't touch this year. They aren't tall - they often play a three guard lineup - and they aren't particularly athletic. Their best athlete is a clone of Andre Roberson, but an inch shorter and not as explosive. Their best player is the point guard, but he is a guy Nate can hang with, not an NBA-type guard.
 
SuperD said:
Also, you have to wonder if it is a little tougher for the West Coast schools to schedule those RPI friendly OOC match ups, particularly for the Pac 12 whose schools are mostly going to be looking for home and homes. While the rise of the MWC as a b-ball conference helps, there simply aren't near as many good scheduling options compared to back East, and fewer schools are willing to come all the way across the country when they can set up a good match up that their fans can go to by driving 3 or 4 hours.
Click to expand...

It's also harder to travel east than to travel west. That shows up in road records in the NFL, for example.

I think we need to start considering an eastern trip every year, though. Maybe spend a week in Boston and play like Northeastern, UMass and Boston College over the course of a week. Get a return trip set up from them as part of the deal, even if they're not all the next year. Do a NY, or Philly or DC or NC or FL trip the next year. Wherever. But that trip would be huge for our RPI.
 
DesertDawg526 said:
Under the current setup it is impossible...

I would like to see conference play start Dec. 1st with OOC games sprinkled in throughout the year as this would be a much better representation of the conference strength. Basing it just on how teams play in November and December seems a little backward, but that's the system we have right now...

Washington traveled east to play Duke and Marquette in December, lost the games by a combined 8 points. Those losses are now coming back to haunt them with the whole "no highly ranked RPI wins" argument... If OOC losses to top teams hurt so much then I think we'll see fewer marquee matchups, or at least not away from home. I don't know that any other conference traveled as much as the Pac did this year to schedule primetime games vs other conferences...
Click to expand...
Something is definitely screwy. I can't imagine that the Mountain West (4 NCAA bids) is that much better than the Pac (2 bids).
 
Hank said:
Something is definitely screwy. I can't imagine that the Mountain West (4 NCAA bids) is that much better than the Pac (2 bids).
Click to expand...

Just look at what the Pac teams did out of conference. They had no OOC wins of any significance. None.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
Just look at what the Pac teams did out of conference. They had no OOC wins of any significance. None.
Click to expand...
Yeah. But the RPI should probably consider margin of victory and margin of loss. There should probably be a bias towards late season games, but the problem as DD mentioned, is they are all in conference.
 
I'm not sure I fully understand the reasoning. Team A schedules 3 really tough ooc games, and loses them all. The committee looks at the strength of the schedule and ignores the losses. Team A is presented an at-large bid.

Those losses don't mean doodlysquat in the tourney. Prolly just means Team A is gonna make an early exit. So what -- they played some tough opponents -- but did they win any of those games? No. But it still counts.

Granted, playing a schedule ranking in the 250's doesn't mean much either, since those are usually guaranteed wins.

I liked it better when the committee valued how a team finished. I know they used to look at how a team fared in the last 10 games (or so). If they want the dance to be competitive, it seems to me that a good barometer would be how well a team was playing at the end of the year, right before the dance. Is my logic too simple?
 
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