MBB: RPI & Sagarin Ranking

[Buffnik]

Last Friday, CU was ranked 140 in the RPI.

After beating Iowa State on Saturday, we moved up to #130.

With the win last night... we have moved up to #113.

Looks like we've got a good chance to get into the top 100 this year with a win against Texas Tech on Saturday.

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

Sagarin now has us at #95 (with CU forecasted to finish at #86).

http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cbsend.htm

 

[absinthe]

That CSU game just kills me, that is the one loss I am unhappy about this year.

 

[Buffnik]

That CSU game just kills me, that is the one loss I am unhappy about this year.

That tops my list, too.

But Arizona, Oregon State and @ Iowa State really hurt, too.

Gonzaga & Kansas were major opportunities we let slip away, too.

 

[sackman]

@Texas A&M, Arizona, @CSU, Missouri, @Iowa State & @OSU were the killers this year. Win half of those games and we're talking about maybe making the NCAA tournament, not hoping for a shot at the NIT.

The loss at home to KU, after taking them to OT, really hurt as well. I suspect (although there's no way of knowing for sure), that the loss to Missouri at home was a direct result of the loss to Kansas just a couple days before. Hangover effect and all that.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

@Texas A&M, Arizona, @CSU, Missouri, @Iowa State & @OSU were the killers this year. Win half of those games and we're talking about maybe making the NCAA tournament, not hoping for a shot at the NIT.

The loss at home to KU, after taking them to OT, really hurt as well. I suspect (although there's no way of knowing for sure), that the loss to Missouri at home was a direct result of the loss to Kansas just a couple days before. Hangover effect and all that.

It would've taken more than that because we'd still only be 17-12 and 8-7 at best in conference, but even then what would really be lacking would be some quality wins, depending on who the wins came against. But if 2 of the 3 wins came against the trio of Missouri, A&M, OSU, and we had pulled off that KU win to put us at 18-11, then we'd have to be in the discussion of bubble teams. Sure, it's all "what if's", but it's encouraging to realize that we're not all that far off from an NCAA berth.

 

[Buffnik]

Sure, it's all "what if's", but it's encouraging to realize that we're not all that far off from an NCAA berth.

I brought my dad to the Missouri game. At the end, we were down 18 and I made the observation that Mizzou had been uncharacteristically hot from 3 and we'd been uncharacteristically cold. I then said 2 things:

1- It's amazing how thin the line is between winning and losing. Even in this blowout, if Mizzou misses 3 of the threes they made to shoot closer to their normal % and, likewise, CU makes 3 threes of the threes we missed to shoot closer to our normal %... that game is tied.

-and-

2- I'm so thankful that Coach Bzdelik never says crap like #1 in interviews. :lol:

 

[Scotch]

That tops my list, too.

But Arizona, Oregon State and @ Iowa State really hurt, too.

Gonzaga & Kansas were major opportunities we let slip away, too.

The CSU game is just the one that pissed me off the most. But they were no where near good enough to win that night.

Oregon State, A&M, and ISU on the road, then KU at home are the missed opportunities I look at. All down to the last seconds and just couldn't find a way to win. Missed free throws, empty possessions, and giving up offensive rebounds at the worst possible times killed those games. Obviously Gonzaga and Arizona to, but they likely go 1-2 in that tourney anyway.

 

[Buffnik]

The CSU game is just the one that pissed me off the most. But they were no where near good enough to win that night.

Oregon State, A&M, and ISU on the road, then KU at home are the missed opportunities I look at. All down to the last seconds and just couldn't find a way to win. Missed free throws, empty possessions, and giving up offensive rebounds at the worst possible times killed those games. Obviously Gonzaga and Arizona to, but they likely go 1-2 in that tourney anyway.

TAMU slipped my mind. That one hurt, for sure.

The reason that Arizona/Gonzaga hurts so much is that even with 1-2 in Maui, if we had beaten one of them we would be replacing a win over D2 Chaminade with a win over a top program. Heck, I believe we could straight replace the win over Chaminade with a loss to Vanderbilt and it would improve our RPI.

P.S. This is why I was upset with scheduling Colorado Christian. That win did absolutely nothing for us. We would have been much better off if we'd played someone like Cal State Fullerton (fairly easy win against a D1 team that has a winning record).

 

[Scotch]

TAMU slipped my mind. That one hurt, for sure.

Thorne had position on that rebound in the final minute and just had it muscled away from him.

The reason that Arizona/Gonzaga hurts so much is that even with 1-2 in Maui, if we had beaten one of them we would be replacing a win over D2 Chaminade with a win over a top program. Heck, I believe we could straight replace the win over Chaminade with a loss to Vanderbilt and it would improve our RPI.

Ya good point. If they get past Gonzaga I don't see them beating Wisconsin in the next round, but at least they would have been there. Same with Arizona. Giving up that 15 point lead to the 'Zags sucked.

P.S. This is why I was upset with scheduling Colorado Christian. That win did absolutely nothing for us. We would have been much better off if we'd played someone like Cal State Fullerton (fairly easy win against a D1 team that has a winning record).

Completely agree. I understand that the scrimmages are a good thing, but playing an exhibition against CC should have been looked at instead of a regular season.

If they're not playing UNC or DU, or even both, I'll be sending an e-mail complaint to Bzz and Bohn. No reason not to play those schools. Especially with both programs looking up.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

I brought my dad to the Missouri game. At the end, we were down 18 and I made the observation that Mizzou had been uncharacteristically hot from 3 and we'd been uncharacteristically cold. I then said 2 things:

1- It's amazing how thin the line is between winning and losing. Even in this blowout, if Mizzou misses 3 of the threes they made to shoot closer to their normal % and, likewise, CU makes 3 threes of the threes we missed to shoot closer to our normal %... that game is tied.

-and-

2- I'm so thankful that Coach Bzdelik never says crap like #1 in interviews. :lol:

Definitely, it's no excuses with him. It wouldn't matter if we lost all those games by a half-court shot at the buzzer, I still don't think he'd say it.

 

[UrbanaBuff]

Well, I think the good news is that we know its possible. Non-traditional basketball schools have the ability to rise up. K-State is Top 5 these days. A&M was Top 10 under Gillespie. Washington came out of nowhere and got a #1 seed a few years back. Iowa was Top 10 under Alford a few years ago. Add to this the fact that the Tournament is fickle, and occasionally puts teams like George Mason in the FF, it is not beyond reason to think that CU may go dancing in the near future and make a surprising run. Why not us?

 

[tante]

Well, I think the good news is that we know its possible. Non-traditional basketball schools have the ability to rise up. K-State is Top 5 these days. A&M was Top 10 under Gillespie. Washington came out of nowhere and got a #1 seed a few years back. Iowa was Top 10 under Alford a few years ago. Add to this the fact that the Tournament is fickle, and occasionally puts teams like George Mason in the FF, it is not beyond reason to think that CU may go dancing in the near future and make a surprising run. Why not us?

absolutely agree, one player can be a game-changer and can elevate a team. The problem for us is you need four good role players and it is hard to argue that we really do.

 

[Mick Ronson]

Well, I think the good news is that we know its possible. Non-traditional basketball schools have the ability to rise up. K-State is Top 5 these days. A&M was Top 10 under Gillespie. Washington came out of nowhere and got a #1 seed a few years back. Iowa was Top 10 under Alford a few years ago. Add to this the fact that the Tournament is fickle, and occasionally puts teams like George Mason in the FF, it is not beyond reason to think that CU may go dancing in the near future and make a surprising run. Why not us?

can't say i agree with all these teams in the same league as ATM. KSU has a very respectable basketball history...made the Elite 8 in 88...not to mention the careers of Jack Hartman and Tex Winter with players like Rolando Blackmon and Mitch Ritchmond. the Cats were very good in the 60's and 70's as well. and Iowa had several deep NCAA runs with Tom Davis and were the stepping stone school for Lute Olson to UA (which implies some success). those are both good to very good historical programs. KSU in particular.

ATM was nothing before Gillespie. I'd wager CU's hoops history dwarfs A&M's.

it's not beyond reason to think it could happen. really, as a lower seed you just need a good matchup in the first round and then you need to upset a higher seed in the 2nd, maybe team has a rough shooting night....star player gets in foul trouble....Buffs win....that's the Sweet 16.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

There have a few other examples of traditional non-basketball schools making Sweet 16 or deeper runs over the last 20 years or so - Minnesota and Oregon have made it to the Final 8 (Oregon does have a good b-ball history but it goes WAY back), while Miami(FL), Penn State, Auburn, Mississippi, Washington State, and Clemson have all made Sweet 16 runs.

 

[Buffnik]

Today we dropped into a 3-way tie at #113 RPI due to some movement from last night's games.

Texas Tech is still ranked at #66 and Kansas at #1 (by a wide margin), so it is likely that 2 straight wins vs TTU with 1 on a neutral court + a neutral court loss to Kansas would catapult CU easily into the top 100. Possibly top 80.

 

[UrbanaBuff]

Ok, K-State does have SOME history. Key word being some. In addition to Tex, Kruger and Altman did some good things in Manhattan. But let's not get carried away. K-State's hoops history pales in comparison to most Big Six/BCS schools. Put them in the Big Ten and they only outshine Northwestern and Penn State historically. Before Beasley was bought, they hadn't won in Lawrence in like 25-35 years! Besides, teams that were good in the 60s or 70s receive no bump whatsoever with today's recruits. Even teams that were good in the 80s and 90s (like UNLV, Arkansas, Michigan) would have a hard time selling that "tradition" these days.

K-State's history may look decent to you, but thats only because the Big XII North (excepting KU) is filled with poor basketball history.

can't say i agree with all these teams in the same league as ATM. KSU has a very respectable basketball history...made the Elite 8 in 88...not to mention the careers of Jack Hartman and Tex Winter with players like Rolando Blackmon and Mitch Ritchmond. the Cats were very good in the 60's and 70's as well. and Iowa had several deep NCAA runs with Tom Davis and were the stepping stone school for Lute Olson to UA (which implies some success). those are both good to very good historical programs. KSU in particular.

ATM was nothing before Gillespie. I'd wager CU's hoops history dwarfs A&M's.

it's not beyond reason to think it could happen. really, as a lower seed you just need a good matchup in the first round and then you need to upset a higher seed in the 2nd, maybe team has a rough shooting night....star player gets in foul trouble....Buffs win....that's the Sweet 16.

 

[Buffnik]

Last night helped our RPI a bit. Our strength of schedule went from #31 to #28 on the strength of wins by Arizona, Miami (OH), Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Texas Southern.

We're now #111 in the RPI rankings. Texas Tech also got a small boost up to #64. Saturday should be a big boost to us with a win.

 

[Buffnik]

Saturday gave us a nice bump in the Sagarin rankings. CU is now at #88 with our strength of schedule at #15. (TTU's at #72).

For the RPI, we moved up from #110 to #103. Texas Tech is ranked #72, so another victory over them will definitely be a quality win.

Kansas in the Big 12 tourney, win or lose, is going to help us too. They're a clear #1 in both Sagarin and RPI that will further improve our strength of schedule (about 50% of the computer ranking).

 

[tante]

I say we just win the Big 12 tourney and go for the big dance.