My 4-Point Plan for This Year

[Gold]

1. Who is the go-to scorer?

Last year it was Brown (45% FG). The year before that Burks (47% FG). This year it's Booker (39% FG). Stats show it should be Dinwiddie, but as we've seen in a few game enders, Booker has taken the last shot. Can't have your leading scorer hold the lowest FG % by far among your top players. Dinwiddie has the poise of a Brown and Burks, and can create his own high percentage shot.


Verdict: Dinwiddie (46% FG)




2. Who is the 6th man?


Last year it was Booker, and he flourished in that role. I recommend going that route once more. Player efficiency = FG %, and right now Booker is doing more harm that good as a starter. Hurts to say that because he's meant so much, but the team is in a rut due to his inefficiency.


Verdict: Booker to the bench




3. Who is the PG?


Dinwiddie is overused as the PG/SG, but as the designated go-to scorer, he should be freed up as a SG. We recruited 2 PGs, and none of them play with regularity. It's time to commit, Tad. Stalzer and Talton both have similar stats in limited minutes, but Stalzer appears to have a better shot between the two.


Verdict: Stalzer starts at PG




4. What do we do about Dre?


Bright side is he's not going to the NBA with his current offensive game. He'll return for a senior season to figure it out. His post game is non-existent, and that needs to change. He's a beast around the rim. If I'm Boyle, I refuse to let him take perimeter shots.


Verdict: Post-up 8-10 times per game




Quick notes on the rest of the team not mentioned above:


Scott:
Much better in transition and posting up quickly than establishing position in half court. Terrific offensive rebounder (51 - tops on the team). No defensive presence at all.


Johnson:
Can drive effectively but not a post player. Not a great shooter, but takes high percentage shots. A bit of a mystery. Playing more with Stalzer will help.


Chen:
Limited minutes from here on out, same with everyone else not mentioned.

Stats to look at:
2010-11
http://www.cubuffs.com//pdf8/756577.pdf

2011-12
http://www.cubuffs.com//pdf8/834142.pdf

2012-13
http://www.cubuffs.com//pdf8/1163086.pdf

 

[slider]

I only really agree with 1.

 

[Gold]

We're 5-6 over our last 11 games. That's a significant sample size to make assumptions. You have to be data driven and creative to make significant enough changes (called optimization) to get the results you need.

 

[jgisland]

1 - The go-to scorer needs to be a combo of Josh Scott and Dinwiddie. Dinwiddie needs to take it to the hoop or get the ball to Scott in the post. In an ideal world you would run iso pick and roll with Scott and Dinwiddie all day. Scott has the highest Offensive rating on the team with Dinwiddie second. The ball needs to be in their hands a lot.

2 - Just an FYI - Player efficiency does not equal FG %. Player efficiency is offensive rating, true shooting %, eFG% and free throw rate. Askia is essentially the same player he was last year in which you said he "flourished". His offensive rating, eFG% and true shooting % are essentially all the same. What is different is that he is getting to the line way less this year per field goal attempted (last year he was getting to the line .4 times per FGA, this year only .22 times). The other big difference is he is taking 30% of the shots when he is on the floor, he only took 26% of the shots when he was on the floor last year, we were able to live with some of his bad shots last year because we needed his offense on the 2nd unit, we don't need more of his inefficient shots when he is the least productive starter.I do agree, he either needs to go to the bench and get less minutes or learn to have a better shot selection with the starters.

3 - Stalzer isn't ready to play starting PG minutes, he is a defensive liability right now. I say try Chen at PG and move Dinwiddie to the 2, see how that works.

4 - Dre isn't a back to the basket post player, the only guys that fit that bill on this team are Scott and SHT. Dre is successful when he is able to beat his guy off the dribble from the wing.

 

[jumped ship]

I like Gold's intentions here but agree more with JG.

This may not be popular but Tad needs to at least try and bring Ski off the bench for a game or two. In a lot of cases the 6th man is more important offensively, than the 5th starter (XJ or Talton based on matchups). Chen has been a surprise this year with his ball handling and you know that he would be a pass first point guard and would keep his defender on their toes due to his selective "drive to the hoop, spin move, left hand ninja-layup".

We do not need to freak out (yet), but a couple adjustments could be made to encourage better flow on the offensive end and bring us back to an underdog, not an underachiever, mentality.

 

[tante]

would you guys settle for a year of growing pains for Spencer to stay at the PG spot and become an 1st team PAC:12 point guard next season? I kinda think this is the plan that Boyle has.

 

[jgisland]

would you guys settle for a year of growing pains for Spencer to stay at the PG spot and become an 1st team PAC:12 point guard next season? I kinda think this is the plan that Boyle has.

Absolutely and he certainly has that talent. My issue is that when Dinwiddie is playing "PG" he tries to fill too much of the traditional past first PG role. He can still be aggressive and take the ball to the hoop without dominating the ball.

 

[CVilleBuff]

My plan: Nut up, beat Wazzu at whatever cost, and get this bitch back on track. Time to forget the Arizona game, what's done is done. We need leaders -- step up Dre. step up Mayor.

 

[slider]

My plan: Nut up, beat Wazzu at whatever cost, and get this bitch back on track. Time to forget the Arizona game, what's done is done. We need leaders -- step up Dre. step up Mayor.

"We can sit there and bicker about this all night, but what is done is done. Are you guys going to invest or not?"

 

[Gold]

Sounds like everyone is in agreement Ski comes off the bench for a while.

I'm not sure that's enough. I think Dre needs to get going and become more of a focal point of offense. Maybe pick up a fake Asian girlfriend. Something.

Chen as a PG is interesting. I think that's a telling sign that no one thinks either Talton or Stalzer can handle that responsibility. I would be OK with Stalzer and seeing if more experience gets him more comfortable out there.

 

[mattrob]

Sounds like everyone is in agreement Ski comes off the bench for a while.

I'm not sure that's enough. I think Dre needs to get going and become more of a focal point of offense. Maybe pick up a fake Asian girlfriend. Something.

Chen as a PG is interesting. I think that's a telling sign that no one thinks either Talton or Stalzer can handle that responsibility. I would be OK with Stalzer and seeing if more experience gets him more comfortable out there.

We do not want Dre to be a focal point of the offense. He flourishes as a role-player and struggles when he tries/is asked to do too much.

 

[Gold]

We do not want Dre to be a focal point of the offense. He flourishes as a role-player and struggles when he tries/is asked to do too much.

I said I want him to be more involved. I think he's trying to show scouts he can hit an outside jumper, but he's gotten away from what comes easier (and frankly more helpful to the team), which is getting easy points in the paint.

For a junior who has NBA potential to take a step back offensively from his Sophmore year (in both FG% and Pts/game), that's a problem.

Some of it has to do with Scott having a presence on the low post and getting reps. But Dre is a great athlete, he should be dominating his defender down low at this point in his career. He's got the wingspan and ball handling to make it happen. It just hasn't happened.

Someone has to step up or we are NIT bound and I'm looking to our star Junior to do it.

 

[tante]

Poor Dre

Average double double through first half of season : check
Lead Pac12 in rebounds per game : check
Sit back as all buffs complains : check

It really is funny we are complaining about him but I think we all felt he could do more this year.

 

[CVilleBuff]

And to think it was just a couple months ago numerous posters were calling me crazy when I voiced concerns over Booker being a poor starter and fitting much better into the 6th man "spark" role.

 

[Gold]

Poor Dre

Average double double through first half of season : check
Lead Pac12 in rebounds per game : check
Sit back as all buffs complains : check

It really is funny we are complaining about him but I think we all felt he could do more this year.

I know. I was there at the Las Vegas Invitational when he wrapped his arm around that IU defender on the baseline and posterized everyone (got called for a charge, which was BS). I went ape**** because I had never seen a CU player do that (didn't realize the charge was called). But still, from that moment, I thought this guy was special and is destined for greatness. Here we are a few years later and he's stalling out a bit and its frustrating to watch because of the potential. If he played with the same confidence on offense that he does on defense, he'd be a top 10 pick.

 

[mattrob]

Poor Dre

Average double double through first half of season : check
Lead Pac12 in rebounds per game : check
Sit back as all buffs complains : check

It really is funny we are complaining about him but I think we all felt he could do more this year.

Eh...if Dre was even the same player he was last year, I'd be more than happy. My concern is he seems to have regressed across the board. He's still a damn good player, but he just can't seem to find his comfort zone this year.

 

[mattrob]

I said I want him to be more involved. I think he's trying to show scouts he can hit an outside jumper, but he's gotten away from what comes easier (and frankly more helpful to the team), which is getting easy points in the paint.

For a junior who has NBA potential to take a step back offensively from his Sophmore year (in both FG% and Pts/game), that's a problem.

Some of it has to do with Scott having a presence on the low post and getting reps. But Dre is a great athlete, he should be dominating his defender down low at this point in his career. He's got the wingspan and ball handling to make it happen. It just hasn't happened.

Someone has to step up or we are NIT bound and I'm looking to our star Junior to do it.

I think you're overrating his offense. I agree he needs to do most of his work down low, but he is not, and never has been, a post player. His points need to come from running the floor, working the offensive glass, and cutting to the basket for easy looks, with the occasional open 3 mixed in. Asking him to do anything else is just asking too much, IMO.

 

[jgisland]

I think you're overrating his offense. I agree he needs to do most of his work down low, but he is not, and never has been, a post player. His points need to come from running the floor, working the offensive glass, and cutting to the basket for easy looks, with the occasional open 3 mixed in. Asking him to do anything else is just asking too much, IMO.

^^^^^^pretty much all of this^^^^^^^

 

[shang]

Sounds like everyone is in agreement Ski comes off the bench for a while.

I'm not sure that's enough. I think Dre needs to get going and become more of a focal point of offense. Maybe pick up a fake Asian girlfriend. Something.

Chen as a PG is interesting. I think that's a telling sign that no one thinks either Talton or Stalzer can handle that responsibility. I would be OK with Stalzer and seeing if more experience gets him more comfortable out there.

the problem w/ stalzer and talton is while they exhibit flashes of greatness on O, they are not up to the defensive task every play at this level, clearly most of the p12 pg's are like dinwiddie, that can score at will and pass.... that being said, they will get there in a year or two, hopefully sooner, but chen at pg... he was one of the top pg's in high school...