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National Champ, who ya got?

UVA will run into a team that will actually hit their open shots, and they don't play offense.

Hate their brand of basketball.
 
torerobuff said:
I'll go with Virginia. Wouldn't be shocked if a 6 or 7 seed got hot and made a run to win it though.
Click to expand...

Virginia's been the best team in the sport, but so much of it is what kind of draw does everybody get. One prediction I will make right now: Arizona will lose their first NCAA game.
 
I look at 2 things from KenPom: Adjusted Offense and Adjusted Defense. Basically, this is efficiency without respect to tempo. Within that, I believe that D rating is more important but that O rating must show that you've got enough firepower to get the job done.

Here is where the main contenders rate (teams that are likely top seeds):

KenPom RankTeamAdjDAdjO
1Virginia137
2Villanova321
3Duke142
4Purdue174
5Michigan State710
6Cincinnati245
7Gonzaga2312
8North Carolina583
9Kansas429
10West Virginia3015
11Auburn3614
12Texas Tech351
13Tennessee449
14Xavier687
15Michigan1235
16Ohio State 1531
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
When I look deeper at those numbers, I still like Virginia a lot. UVA's D is crazy good. The difference between them and #3 D Texas Tech is 8.3. That's absolutely insane. It's greater than the difference between #3 and #65. (#2 Cincinnati is also elite, but is 4.2 behind UVA). Only question with Virginia is if they have enough firepower to overcome a team that gets hot from 3.

Villanova's performance on O is also #1 with a bullet, ranking 3.8 above #2 Duke. So that's a team that could get hot and win it just as they did a couple years ago. But it is hard to win that way and unlikely.

Ideally, I want to see a Top 10 defense with a Top 20 offense. The only team that fits that description is Michigan State -- and they're top 10 in both. But since I can't stomach rooting for them, I won't be picking them. On the numbers alone I would, though.

Duke and Purdue are also very solid picks, by the numbers. And if you believe in defense, look out for Cincinnati, Texas Tech or Tennessee to make a run to the Final Four like South Carolina did despite their lack of firepower.
 
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Very impressive win by Villanova tonight at a tough Seton Hall. SH was nasty on D, holding Nova to 52 points. But Nova still got it to OT with its own defense and then work up on O to score 17 points in OT to win it.

I didn't think they were capable of winning like that. They might be more dangerous in the tournament than I'd thought.
 
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