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NCAA Mock Selection
- Thread starter cmgoods
- Start date
CU would be a #8 seed. I can live with that. Given those 9seeds, CU would be playing 'Cuse or FSU. Not terrifying matchups at all.
To keep that #8 seed, CU has a lot of work to do. The upcoming schedule is brutal. This is a bad time for the Buffs to be battling injuries. CU is going to need to hold serve at home and play much better against UW, UofA, and ASU.
need to win 2. winning 3 possible. winning 4 highly unlikely.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Sure hope for 4, but UW and ASU both make me nervous. Perhaps we can get one on the road (13-10 UCLA?). Arizona seems
to be hitting their stride. I'll feel better about saying 3-4 if we get by UW, a team that's sure to be eyeing a top 50 road win for their tournament hopes
to be hitting their stride. I'll feel better about saying 3-4 if we get by UW, a team that's sure to be eyeing a top 50 road win for their tournament hopes
The most likely scenario that we see at the end of the regular season will look like this:
1.Oregon (14-4)
2.Arizona (14-4)
3.USC (13-5)
4.California (11-7)
5.Utah (10-8)
6.Washington (10-8)
7.Colorado (9-7)
8.UCLA (8-10)
9. Oregon State (8-10)
10. Stanford (5-13)
11. Arizona State (5-13)
12. Washington St (1-17)
This assumes we finish the season with wins over Washington and Arizona State at home and losses to Arizona at home and USC, UCLA and Utah on the road. Now the biggest change we can make is beating Utah at Utah, which would vault us in the 5 seed. The tie breakers in standings are head to head, which we would have a tie with Washington (assuming we win tomorrow) and then the schedule versus number 1, which will probably be Oregon (we will be 1-1 versus them and Washington will be 0-1 handing us the tiebreaker and that 5th seed).
Some game with huge seeding implications not involving the Buffs:
2/18 California at Washington: this game is a tossup with each team with a 50% win probability. In my outcomes above, I gave the win to the home team which was Washington.
3/2 Oregon at UCLA: Oregon has a 56% win probability, but if they lose this game, they could potentially hand the conference to Arizona.
Right now I just don't see how the Buffs can jump to that number four seed. Most likely we would need to get to 11 wins, which probably means beating Arizona at home (very possible) and beating either UCLA or Utah on the road. The models say that our best chance is at UCLA, but that will be the second game of the road trip, which gets tougher as the season goes on.
If everything breaks the way we want (3-0 at home and a road win to get to 11-7) The great thing is that we only play Arizona once. So if we beat them and Cal splits, we would finis with the four seed. There are a lot of moving parts but the bottom line is the best thing we can always do to improve our seeding is win and let the rest sort itself out.
With 6 games left, there are still too many moving pieces. Buffs just need to win. The rest will work itself out.
Hoops Fan
Well-Known Member
Here is an update heading into the games this week. UCLA did themselves a big favor by beating ASU on the road and no team hurt themselves more than Oregon last week. Here is the expected finish at this point. The big question is if it does shake out this way (.0001% chance), does the selection committee put the 8th place finisher in the PAC12, with an RPI in the low 30's over teams that finish in the 50's or 60's (Washington and UCLA) if they finish higher than us in conference? Now I don't think UCLA gets to 9-9, but they do play 4 of their last 6 at home, so it is possible.
1.Arizona (14-4)
2.Oregon (13-5)
3.USC (12-6)
4.California (11-7)
5.Utah (10-8)
6.Washington (10-8)
7.UCLA (9-9)
8.Colorado (9-9)
9. Oregon State (8-10)
10. Stanford (5-13)
11. Arizona State (6-12)
12. Washington St (1-17)
key games this week:
Colorado at UCLA - would all but lock up a top 7 finish in conference
Utah at UCLA - see above
Cal at Washington - this game has been a tossup for weeks. A Cal win would help us in seedings
1.Arizona (14-4)
2.Oregon (13-5)
3.USC (12-6)
4.California (11-7)
5.Utah (10-8)
6.Washington (10-8)
7.UCLA (9-9)
8.Colorado (9-9)
9. Oregon State (8-10)
10. Stanford (5-13)
11. Arizona State (6-12)
12. Washington St (1-17)
key games this week:
Colorado at UCLA - would all but lock up a top 7 finish in conference
Utah at UCLA - see above
Cal at Washington - this game has been a tossup for weeks. A Cal win would help us in seedings
Yuck. If we finish 1-4 we are screwed.
aghcsm
Well-Known Member
I'm expecting we've got a shot at beating AZ. We've only lost one home game this year, 2 pts to Utah. Last 2 games weren't very comfortable, but even with poor play we managed somehow to win both. Hard for me to see winning road games against decent teams though. We won 2 road games (tight games) against bottom P12 teams. But looking forward to seeing how we meet the challenge.
aghcsm
Well-Known Member
Everyone has their own reasoning and perspective, and optimism needs to have a basis for most people. Sure it's ok to discuss and speculate if you want, but every time the Buffs have shown flashes of greatness they crash again. My preference is to be realistic. In fact I thought it was realistic to expect we would crush WSU at home, and we were very fortunate to win. I recall last year some ABers kept predicting the team would suddenly take on the form expected in preseason and sweep into the NCAAs but of course it never happened. For the record, I agree that any talk about how we might miss the NCAA tourney this year is ridiculous. The only issue is seeding, and that is an important issue that is up in the air.
It would be unprecedented for CU to finish in the 30s in RPI and to miss the tournament- No P5 team has ever finished better than 40th in RPI and missed the tournament.
The problem is that I saw somewhere that if CU goes 1-4 the rest of the way that they'd likely be in the mid-40s.
I don't think that happens, though.
Yes our RPI is very good but the ESPN BPI is quite a bit lower, and while that's BS I'm sure the committee still takes that into account. Also our lack of quality wins away from home is glaring.
A 1-4 finish is a real possiblity and that scares the hell out of me when it comes to the bubble watch.
No one who doesn't work at ESPN pays any attention to RPI.
KenPom and Sagarin have CU much lower than RPI does, though. People respect those. The committee, though, isn't supposed to look at anything except the official resume sheet. RPI is almost a stone cold lock way of figuring out the at-large teams.
All that said, CU needs to make the committee's decision about seeding by winning a couple games.