Nelson Spruce's Year Compared to Other Top College WR

[Darth Snow]

Football Outsiders took a look, and Spruce came in at #28 (out of the top 100).

Above ranking is a conglomeration of answers to the following questions:

But first, let's quickly revisit an old concept: RYPR.

Below, you will find a measure that attempts to answer the following questions about a given pass-catcher:

1) How much do you produce?
2) How important are you to your team's passing game?
3) How good is the passing game to which you are important?
4) And how much is the forward pass featured in your team's offense?

The idea was to simply multiply the following four factors together: a player's Yards Per Target, his Target Rate, his team's Passing S&P+, and his team's pass rate. Target Rate x Yards Per Target x Passing S&P+ x Pass Rate = RYPR.

Simplified, it's basically this:
RYPR = (receiving yards / total team plays) * Passing S&P+

Again, it's not bad. It gives a single player too much credit for his team's Passing S&P+ overall, but the initial goal here isn't to produce the perfect receiver measure -- it's simply to answer the four questions listed above. As soon as I give myself the time, we'll take this further.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2014/vn-2014-college-receiver-crop

Link to the file for all WR's in the country: https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2523014/RYPR_after_14_weeks.0.xlsx

A quick glance at why Nelson was so low relative to his ultimate production (as far as I can tell):

Low low LOW Yards Per Target/Completion (aside: maybe Sefo's low Yards/attempt this year isn't so much missing Richardson as it is featuring Spruce?)

Despite the total #s, Spruce suffered from the fact that our passing game wasn't nearly as efficient as most of the offenses that featured top WR's. (S&P of 105, just a little bit better than average).

Other WR #s:

• Fields: #250, 9.7 Yards Per Completion, only 6.1 per target.
• McCullough: #284, 14 YPC - 8.7/target
• D.D. Goodson: #317, 10 YPC - 6.5/target
• Bobo: #490, 9.4 YPC - 6.0/target

My conclusions: Spruce is really good, Fields is also good. McCullough was effective. Bobo was very disappointing. We lose very little in DD.

Offense needs to find a way to go deeper/be more efficient in the passing game. Such low Yards per Target gave us little room for error.

 

[Buffnik]

Good stuff, but...

Spruce became a possession receiver as the season progressed. Teams adjusted to put a safety over the top while pressing with the CB. Spruce's stats were artificially reduced on YPC because the Buffs weren't able to make defenses pay for doing this by exploiting the deep third with other receivers. It did help the run game, though, since that safety back instead of in the box really opened things up.

 

[Darth Snow]

Good stuff, but...

Spruce became a possession receiver as the season progressed. Teams adjusted to put a safety over the top while pressing with the CB. Spruce's stats were artificially reduced on YPC because the Buffs weren't able to make defenses pay for doing this by exploiting the deep third with other receivers. It did help the run game, though, since that safety back instead of in the box really opened things up.

Spruce IS a possession WR. He's just a very very good one. Putting a guy over the top of Prich limited the damage, it didn't stop it. And yes, we don't really have a deep threat.

Fields is fast, but has the lowest YPT. He showed difficulty adjusting to the deep ball. Outside of Arizona, we stopped throwing to him deep. Bobo was a disappointment. Hell, our best "deep" threat was McCullough, and he wasn't even a deep threat. He just did a good job exploiting space in the middle, making guys miss, and getting decent yards.

This is a problem that I don't see going away with current personnel - unless one our Redshirts is hiding something. I don't see any of our current commits fixing it either.

In short: Our talent is mediocre and holding this offense back.

 

[absinthe]

You shut your whore mouth Snow were are good and deep at this position.

 

[Darth Snow]

You shut your whore mouth Snow were are good and deep at this position.

Shut it Tini! Actually, I'm now more impressed with Sefo & Lindgren despite how depressed the above analysis makes me. Sefo wasn't exactly working with a bunch of stars at WR.

More refined conclusions: With all due respect to Fields, we only have one good WR and a bunch of dudes... Out of all guys with 10 targets or more IN THE COUNTRY, only Spruce was good. Fields was average - which is fine for a freshman, but I don't think his game will significantly change since catching the ball deep is an instinctive thing. The rest of the guys were below average or worse (Bobo, DD).

 

[Burrito]

Wr screen killed Shay.

 

[MtnBuff]

Big impact on our ability to throw deep was the inconsistent ability of the line to give Sefo the time needed for deeper passes to develop. The consistent early pressure on the passer forced us to go to quicker throws. Unfortunately as this happened defenses pulled up and made these less effective, this is also where some of the ugly pics that Sefo threw came from with defenders keying on these passes and jumping the routes and Sefo not reading the jump and throwing the ball before the pressure got to him (or as the pressure was getting to him.)

Had we been able to run some longer developing things Spruce could have faked the shorter routes and burst into patterns that would have carried him for longer gains. He isn't going to be a PRich and just flat out run by most guys but given time he can work guys into postion that allows him to get open deeper.

 

[Duff Man]

We need a whole lot better than what McCulloch gave us.

 

[Darth Snow]

We need a whole lot better than what McCulloch gave us.

Yes. Not only is he leaving, but he gave us average, at best. Hell, he only had one 100 game in his whole career (his last one). This offense needs more legit threats.

 

[MtnBuff]

We need a whole lot better than what McCulloch gave us.

Duff, you know I have always been a McCulloch defender and I appreciate the efforts he gave us but you are right.

McC was put into a position that would normally be occupied by a TE but he didn't give us what a quality TE gives. He didn't provide a threat as a guy who could block a LB or safety much less a DE on running plays and he didn't give us that consistent outlet in the middle of the defense where a QB can go for consistent yardage and force the D to be honest.

If our offense is going to be markedly better next season we have to find somebody who can fill this role but unless somebody we haven't seen play steps up we may be in trouble again.

 

[Buffnik]

McCulloch flashed enough to give us all a great look into the potential for a big inside receiver in the Lindgren offense.

 

[Bufffan68]

I wouldn't say we're mediocre, but not stellar. Shay and Nelson would start or get a lot of playing time at most PAC12 schools, if not all. After that, it drops off pretty dramatically. Lee showed some spark and Bobo had a few decent games, but both were disappointing.

 

[BlackNGold]

Guys like Spruce are best when they have a guy like Richardson on the team. Last year we average about 12.7 yards per catch. This year we average 9.8 - A pretty significant drop. A lot of that could be contributed to PRich being gone and stretching the defense a little. If Fields can progress, Spruce should have a better year in 2015.

 

[goalline]

Wr screen killed Shay.

This - used way too often and usually produced about 3 yards.

 

[Duff Man]

The lack of threat in the middle of the field hurts us just as much as the lack of a deep threat IMO.

 

[Buffnik]

The lack of threat in the middle of the field hurts us just as much as the lack of a deep threat IMO.

Probably more, imho. LBs were able to jump their reads.

 

[Duff Man]

Probably more, imho. LBs were able to jump their reads.

Spruce would have benefited many times from a big presence inside. But as you say, it got pretty cluttered inside on third downs.