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Odds on Dancing

Tempe_Buff

Well-Known Member
Just curious of what you all think our odds of getting to the tournament are depending on how many games we win this week.

Lose to Iowa State.... 5%
Beat Iowa State/ Lose to K State .... 70%
Beat Iowa State / Beat K State ..... 100%
 
Win two and in. very iffy if we only beat ISU. Also it will depend to how far Nebraska and Baylor go in the B12. Plus however the ACC and SEC tournaments shake out.
 
Lose to ISU.....0%
Beat ISU / Lose to KSU.....50% this could fluctuate depending on how bad we lose and the results of other bubble teams
Beat KSU.....80-90% we'd be looking good but the committee has pulled worse **** in the past....you just never know
Win semifinal game......99.5% I don't see how they could deny us at that point
 
Crash Davis said:
Lose to ISU.....0%
Beat ISU / Lose to KSU.....50% this could fluctuate depending on how bad we lose and the results of other bubble teams
Beat KSU.....80-90% we'd be looking good but the committee has pulled worse **** in the past....you just never know
Win semifinal game......99.5% I don't see how they could deny us at that point
Click to expand...

Agree with just about all of this. I think this could be one of the things that playing KState a third time gives us the benefit of the doubt. We've already beat them twice, if we lose a close game, I don't think that'll look as bad as losing to aTm again.

With that said, I think losing to KSU our chances are between 30-60% based on what the other teams do.
90% a win against KSU
100% a win against whoever the next team is, even if it's OKState or Nebraska. No freaking way they wouldn't let us in after all that.
 
Its tough to put on odds on our chances because so much of it depends on how the other bubble teams play. They could really help us out or really screw us. And their could be one or two "stolen" bids in the conf tourneys.
 
Gonna take a hit if VCU beats ODU tonight, for sure.

Lose to ISU: 1%
Beat ISU/Lose to Purple Pussies: 50%
Beat ISU and KSU: 95%
 
CVilleBuff said:
Gonna take a hit if VCU beats ODU tonight, for sure.

Lose to ISU: 1%
Beat ISU/Lose to Purple Pussies: 50%
Beat ISU and KSU: 95%
Click to expand...

That sounds about right except I'd maybe put it at about 5-10% if lose to ISU, but regardless I don't think we get in if lose that first game in the Big 12 tourney. But if we go 1-1 in KC then it'll gonna be a total crapshoot whether or not we get in.
 
Lose to ISU: 0.1%....the losses to OU and Baylor will comeback and bite us in the ass.
Beat ISU/Lose to KSjU: 85%
Beat ISU/Beat KSjU: 100%
 
tgruenler said:
Lose to ISU: 0.1%....the losses to OU and Baylor will comeback and bite us in the ass.
Beat ISU/Lose to KSjU: 85%
Beat ISU/Beat KSjU: 100%
Click to expand...

We're the last team in right now, and just beating ISU isn't going to do much for us other than hitting the 20 win mark. Historically, teams like CU with a weak SOS get screwed. It'll be a total toss-up to get in if we go 1-1 in KC.
 
I think that a win against ISU would be enough, and if we keep it close against KSjU, we're in. Already beat KSjU twice this year and you would think that the committee would look at that.
 
Im sure most of you have watched more college games than I have this year but are we that much of a lock to beat ISU away from Boulder?
 
tgruenler said:
I think that a win against ISU would be enough, and if we keep it close against KSjU, we're in. Already beat KSjU twice this year and you would think that the committee would look at that.
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I hope so, but it could get messy if Baylor advanced deep into the tournament. Not to mention if some tournament spots disappear due to upset winners
 
Darian3Hagan said:
Im sure most of you have watched more college games than I have this year but are we that much of a lock to beat ISU away from Boulder?
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Not particularly, nothing would surprise me with this team although the loss in Ames was definitely "one of those nights". Yeah, our defense sucked, but they shot like 70% in the second half. They're not going to do that on a neutral court. I do think it's better to get ISU as you'd hope the players would have some major motivation to get revenge, given the implications.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Not particularly, nothing would surprise me with this team although the loss in Ames was definitely "one of those nights". Yeah, our defense sucked, but they shot like 70% in the second half. They're not going to do that on a neutral court. I do think it's better to get ISU as you'd hope the players would have some major motivation to get revenge, given the implications.
Click to expand...

Buffs need some goods news, a NCAA berth would hold us over until FB season nicely.
 
Darian3Hagan said:
Buffs need some goods news, a NCAA berth would hold us over until FB season nicely.
Click to expand...

It's been such a long last few years, I am determined the Buffs make the big dance. We haven't exactly been a basketball powerhouse historically and this would be really special to make it. You get the feeling the tide is turning - Tad is the right guy and I think the Buffs can establish themselves as one of the top programs in the Pac. Football, well that's self-explanitory
 
CVilleBuff said:
It's been such a long last few years, I am determined the Buffs make the big dance. We haven't exactly been a basketball powerhouse historically and this would be really special to make it. You get the feeling the tide is turning - Tad is the right guy and I think the Buffs can establish themselves as one of the top programs in the Pac. Football, well that's self-explanitory
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Hopefully there will be a time where making bowls games or the NCAA's isnt such a big deal.

Winning is awesome Charlie Sheen told me so.
 
http://www.livethesheendream.com/

Should be easier to make the big dance in the Pac12. Actually, given the current state of basketball in the Pac, the Buffs could even win the league one of these years if Boyle establishes the Buffs as a program that can typically win 20+ games. Hoping for 7-6 in football, but I'm still not really sure what to expect from the team. Definitely have my questions of whether Hansen is the best option moving forward
 
Gonna be tough to get past Zona with the talent they have coming in but otherwise I agree with you. At the very least, we should put up a fight and be in the top 3.
 
CVilleBuff said:
http://www.livethesheendream.com/

Should be easier to make the big dance in the Pac12. Actually, given the current state of basketball in the Pac, the Buffs could even win the league one of these years if Boyle establishes the Buffs as a program that can typically win 20+ games. Hoping for 7-6 in football, but I'm still not really sure what to expect from the team. Definitely have my questions of whether Hansen is the best option moving forward
Click to expand...

Funny thing when Barnett was fired he was 7-5. How the expectations have fallen.
 
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