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Ongoing Comparison of Point Differential among Common Opponents

boydbuff

Club Member
Thought it might be interesting to track our running point differential totals against common opponents from year to year starting in 2012. IMO it is arguably the most important single indicator to track if we are improving our not. As e we all know this season got off to a rocky start on this but has improved a lot since.

Opponent201220132014
CSU-5+14-14
UCLA-28-22-3
ASU-34-41-14
USC-44-18-28
Oregon-56-41
Arizona-25-24
Washington-35-52-15
Utah-7-7
Totals-234 (-29.25 ppg)-191 (-23.86 ppg)-74 (-14.80 ppg)
 
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Except to make sure you highlight how bad Embree was, I'm not sure why tracking it over three years is interesting.
 
NW Buff said:
Oregon State? Cal?
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Because we didn't play either one in 2012

NW Buff said:
Except to make sure you highlight how bad Embree was, I'm not sure why tracking it over three years is interesting.
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Because it is difficult to look at trends using 1.5 seasons. Furthermore, part of this analysis is to analyze HCMM's track record and looking only at his 1st year without the last year before him leaves out an important data point regarding potential improvement under HCMM.

As you guys know I was an HCMM Kool-Aid guy and then I fell off the bandwagon after the miserable start but I am coming around again. I thought this analysis added an additional tangible way to explore HCMM's performance year on year. I will edit the table after every common opponent.
 
boydbuff said:
Because we didn't play either one in 2012

Because it is difficult to look at trends using 1.5 seasons. Furthermore, part of this analysis is to analyze HCMM's track record and looking only at his 1st year without the last year before him leaves out an important data point regarding potential improvement under HCMM.

As you guys know I was an HCMM Kool-Aid guy and then I fell off the bandwagon after the miserable start but I am coming around again. I thought this analysis added an additional tangible way to explore HCMM's performance year on year. I will edit the table after every common opponent.
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I did clearly miss your first point but it still doesn't make sense to me. I support MacIntyre as the coach and clearly think the results on the field show improvement. I don't need a chart like this to realize that.

Recruiting worries me but only because it worries the guys around here who pay a lot more attention to it than I do.

Over a 2-3 year period in college sports, you have so much turnover on any individual team that comparing the results in the way you are isn't useful, IMHO.
 
NW Buff said:
I did clearly miss your first point but it still doesn't make sense to me. I support MacIntyre as the coach and clearly think the results on the field show improvement. I don't need a chart like this to realize that.

Recruiting worries me but only because it worries the guys around here who pay a lot more attention to it than I do.

Over a 2-3 year period in college sports, you have so much turnover on any individual team that comparing the results in the way you are isn't useful, IMHO.
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I agree. For instance, if we hadn't had our game canceled with Fresno State last year and played them again this year, I'd expect that the results in 2014 would be much better than 2012 and 2013... even if CU was a worse team.
 
Generally agree with the criticism. In aggregate though, the stat can be used to suggest a general improvement (or not) in overall performance vis a vis the teams we play. Which is generally what we are looking for this year. One of those things where the forest is useful, but the trees are not.
 
I hear the argument but how many of you have not done the same thing in your head during and after each game?

Year to year performance against the same teams is relevant especially when all but one is a conference foe


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I think there's still a lot of football left to be played. Some of those empty boxes could sour some opinions around here. The games against Cal, ASU, and OSU have definitely looked way better than they have since we got into the P12.
 
fatbuff said:
How do you account for changes in other teams from year to year? The stat doesn't mean ****.
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Exactly. This stat is meaningless due to the variable of how other teams have gotten better or worse over the past couple of seasons.
 
Burrito Palazzo said:
I'd feel better if it was graphed.
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I'll get right on that :)

P.S. For any of you who feel it is meaningless to compare how we play against the same team and the same coach from year to year, feel free to avoid this thread. For those who think it is interesting, play on.

BTW, many ABers were happy to note, before this season that HCMM was undefeated against McElwain even though 2 of his 3 prior victories were when he coached a different team in a different league. So someone who thinks that is reasonable to look at (coach versus coach) needs to explain to me why it is not relevant to look at coach vs. coach of the same team in the same league.
 
boydbuff said:
I'll get right on that :)

P.S. For any of you who feel it is meaningless to compare how we play against the same team and the same coach from year to year, feel free to avoid this thread. For those who think it is interesting, play on.

BTW, many ABers were happy to note, before this season that HCMM was undefeated against McElwain even though 2 of his 3 prior victories were when he coached a different team in a different league. So someone who thinks that is reasonable to look at (coach versus coach) needs to explain to me why it is not relevant to look at coach vs. coach of the same team in the same league.
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I was trying to help keep you busy. Idle hands and all...
 
Boyd, appreciate the effort. It would appear we are getting more competitive overall. Its tough to attempt a meta-analysis of sorts with limited data. Mining additional points like total offense, defense, Points for and against, etc. would help to quiet this crowd. Lets just win, the rest will fall into place
 
BuffHerd said:
Boyd, appreciate the effort. It would appear we are getting more competitive overall. Its tough to attempt a meta-analysis of sorts with limited data. Mining additional points like total offense, defense, Points for and against, etc. would help to quiet this crowd. Lets just win, the rest will fall into place
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All true. Not in the mood to do it though. I will update the point differentials after each game and modify the totals and average for this season.
 
Some of you don´t think it is relevant to compare point differential season to season against the same teams. I personally do and I promised to edit the table as the season goes on. I actually wanted to add 2 rows to cover the teams that we played this year and last but not in 2012 but I couldn´t figure out how to do it.

Anyway, outside of the USC game we have been in virtually every game until the final quarter. It is impossible to argue that we are not the most competitive we have been since joining the PAC. Time to ****ing win one though.
 
boydbuff said:
Some of you don´t think it is relevant to compare point differential season to season against the same teams. I personally do and I promised to edit the table as the season goes on. I actually wanted to add 2 rows to cover the teams that we played this year and last but not in 2012 but I couldn´t figure out how to do it.

Anyway, outside of the USC game we have been in virtually every game until the final quarter. It is impossible to argue that we are not the most competitive we have been since joining the PAC. Time to ****ing win one though.
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Add the school but leave it open in the year we didn't play them. Should be pretty easy. An average or total wont be effected if it is blank.
 
boydbuff said:
Some of you don´t think it is relevant to compare point differential season to season against the same teams. I personally do and I promised to edit the table as the season goes on. I actually wanted to add 2 rows to cover the teams that we played this year and last but not in 2012 but I couldn´t figure out how to do it.

Anyway, outside of the USC game we have been in virtually every game until the final quarter. It is impossible to argue that we are not the most competitive we have been since joining the PAC. Time to ****ing win one though.
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Either we are getting better or every other team is getting worse.
 
Don´t get me wrong, totally sucks we keep finding ways to lose and coming close game after game is not enough. HCMM has to find a way to get us over the hump. And get better recruits in here. And get rid of a few staff who are not carrying their weight (FYI, no way Lindgren is in that group even though some delusional ABers think he should be).
 
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