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Outperforming your recruiting

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Thou shalt not groom Mary Jane
Club Member
The guys at 538 are really doing some good college football number crunching this week. Here's one of their latest efforts:
Which College Football Teams Do The Most With The Least Talent?

Colorado comes in at #31 in all FBS and #15 in the P5 in their "outperforming your recruiting" score.

In the power 5, Wisconsin, KjSU, and Okie lite are unsurprisingly near the top. More surprising is that Washington and Washington State outperform those three, and most surprising is that the P5 team that has most outperformed their recruiting is OU. When you recruit that well and still overperform your recruiting, you have very good coaching. Stoops probably didn't get as much credit as he should have.

At the other end, the under performers are "led" by KU and Rutgers (both worse in the P5 and all FBS). It turns out that doing **** with average recruiting measures worse than doing average with good to great recruiting (Texas and South Carolina).

Bottom 10 in P5 in underperforming their recruiting (starting with the worst overall):
KU
Rutgers
Texas
South Carolina
Maryland
Virginia
Purdue
Georgia
Oregon State
Kentucky

Just barely missing the bottom 10 are ASU and UCLA.

But, besides just the interesting list and ranking of teams was the determination that about 65% of the variation in team performance is explained by recruiting scores/rankings.
 
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